Just back from a week in New Hampshire

[DancingBear]

I just spent the better part of a week in southern NH, working as they say "on the ground" for General Clark. Here are my thoughts:

1) Clark will surprise in NH. Dean will win, due to the fact that he has been in NH campaigning for 18 months. He has been able to saturate the state with coverage, but I strongly believe that his support is a mile wide and an inch deep (more on this in a bit). However, the good general is making a name for himself here, after only being here for three months. I was helping out in Keene (southern NH), and during my brief time we had a nice stream of both in-state and out-of-state people coming in to help man the phones, do voter outreach, etc. Old, young, male, female, military and civilian were all represented, and all are/were politically savvy enough to know that a certain New England ex-governor has no chance in November. Polls are all over the place (note: NO ONE believes the WMUR-TV Dean 42% poll - more on that later), but most feel a second place finish is within reach.

2) Converting Dean supporters is easy! Day one - went off on "signage" duties (ie. placing signs in businesses, etc.). Since I needed to buy a new set of fireplace tools, I went to a local eatablishment to do so. The proprietor, seeing my Clark button, asked how things were going. I told him, and he replied (without any prompting from me) - "well, I'm for Dean, but I'm not sure he can win the general election." We talked for a good bit of time, focusing on how important it is to field the candidate who can BEAT BUSH. I left with him not totally committing to the general, but leaning really really hard in that direction.

The next day I met with a realtor friend, who with her husband were Dean supporters. Her reasoning - "well, he's all we have seen around here for the last 18 months. But I'm not sure he can beat Bush." I framed my arguments around national security/war on terror (and my friend the gorilla), and brought two more folks around.

The following morning I had breakfast with two old friends - both Dean supporters. They asked why I would come all the way to NH from VA to work for Clark, and I told them. Result - they are very concerned about Dean's ability to win, and will definitely go to see Clark when he returns to their part of NH in January.

A lot of the Dean support here is due to the "saturation effect" - he got 'em early when there were no other viable options. It is (in many places) very thin, and they all want to beat Bush more than anything. Do not think there is a Dean tidal wave up here - there isn't. Recent events in Libya and Iraq are causing many people to take a second look, and they do not like what they see.

3) General Clark spoke in Claremont (central NH) on Thursday, and I was there for that event (note to hands and feet - I apologize for making you stay out for so long in the cold, but crowd building is part and parcel of how you win an election). The crowd was good sized, and we were all shocked to see George Stephanopoulos and a camera crew from "This Week' come through the door! They are doing a story on Clark, and I believe were going to interview him after the town hall meeting. I didn't get to ask George what he thought.. ;(

I did speak a little bit to the local TV folks covering the event, and while everyone believes Dean will win most see him in the low 30's or so percentage wise. I am not sure of their degree of political acumen but I thought it was an interesting bit of info so I'm passing it along.

Clark got a standing ovation from the crowd, and was his usual self - in command of the facts, straightforward, and connecting with the audience. I manged to talk with a young couple who didn't get to ask Clark a question after the meeting ended (they wanted to ask if he would support a Department of Peace). Due to the large number of people who always surround Clark after he finishes, they couldn't get near him. They said that they were very surprised at his grasp of environmental issues (his talk was centered around them), and were "thinking things over."

I drank about 12 cups of hot apple cider to get my extremities working again (unlike Dean meet-ups, there was no kool-aid to be found :) ), thanked everyone connected with the campaign who I met during my stay, and promised to come back up again.

Hang on, kids, it's just getting interesting...

[Renew Deal]

1. Nice report

I am going to be heading to either NH or SC next friday for about 7-8 days. I can't wait. I have been to NH once. I would agree with your assesment.

[DancingBear]

3. Where in NH?

If it turns out to be southern NH (Cheshire County), PM me via my DU inbox and I'll give you contact info, if that would be helpful.

[Cornus]

2. Great Post

I plan on going to NH in early/mid January. Hope my visit and volunteering for Clark will be as productive as yours seemed to be.

[jaysunb]

4. Keene, huh?

I'll be going there next month, from California. Was it very cold ?
Please give me the names of the Dean turncoats so I can get them back on board. LOL !

Clark is going to be a great VP and a welcome addition to the ticket.

BTW I'm staying at a place called The Carriage Barn on Main Street. Did you see it. Will I freeze to death there ? :scared:

I keep asking myself....why am I doing this ????

[DancingBear]

5. Hey - why should I help you? :)

jaysunb,

Yes, it'll be cold. I lived in NH for a long time, so it usually doesn't bother me, but this time it was a liitle, um, brisk.

I know where The Carriage Barn is - you'll be fine. I think they have a large Dean sign in front - unless , of course, my "operatives" were able to carry out their mission. :)

You'll need a very warm winter coat (Thinsulate or down, rated to around 0 degrees would be nice), warm gloves, a ski hat ("tobaggan", as they're called up north), winter boots if you plan to be ourtside for long periods of time, flannel/fleece shirts, and (according to my friend from Texas) long underwear, although I disagree.

There's a great place for breakfast in... (sorry, Clark secret).

And I can't give you the names of the turncoats - there are just too many!!

Have fun!

[jaysunb]

16. Thanks for the advice Bear

If I run into VP Clark I'll let him know how hard you worked. LOL !!!

I sure hope they just want me to stuff envelopes or do some phoning. Although I grew up in the midwest (Cleveland) where the winters can be brutal, I was once in Bangor Maine in January, and I think it may have been several days before I realized I still had fingers , toes and ears.....and that was from a mere five minutes outside the airport. Brrrrrr !!

Maybe we can all get together next Jan. to see GWB off to Texas. (by Greyhound)

[FrenchieCat]

6. here's a view on NH from the rear view mirror....

OBJECTS ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR

[Toucano]

7. Thank you for your efforts.

In fairness, it doesn't sound like your "conversions" are rock solid, but you efforts are appreciated.

Keep up the good work!

[DancingBear]

9. Not yet, but I know where they live...

:)

[HFishbine]

8. I applaud you!

Excellent work! This is how the dems will win. Good for you.

[maxanne]

10. it's very cold in NH

so dress warm. We've had a bunch of snow, then rain - so there's lots of ice. Wear some boots with traction. Don't be mincing around in city shoes or high heels. Fleece socks are one of the best inventions of the last decade. If you're going door to door, you'll appreciate them. Good gloves, or mittens too.

At least you won't be coming north. Clark's campaign is all concentrated in the bottom half of the state, where the cities are.

It's a lot colder, and plenty of Deaner up north.

Clark did come north the other night. There were about 30 people who came to see him in Berlin, on Thursday night. That same night, 400 people turned out, half an hour down the road, to see Howard Dean in N. Conway.

[DancingBear]

12. and nobody thought that the "get paid $5 to see Howard Dean"

strategy would ever work.

:) :)

[Renew Deal]

13. Did that really happen?

[DancingBear]

14. No! n/t

[in_cog_ni_to]

11. Wonderful report, Dancing Bear!

Changing minds one, two, three at a time is how we will win. I appreciate the work you're doing and Thank You for your efforts! Great job.

[Loki]

15. I just keep hoping that the General

will make his way to Texas during this primary season. Well, at least that's what I want for Christmas.

Wesley Clark - All patriot, no act.

[BootinUp]

17. I'm hangin on

Great report, and great job...

I hope your information on the polls is right, that sounds more like what I expected anyways.

[Ilsa]

18. ThankyouThankyouThankyou!

I appreciate very much that you travelled (and this goes for you also, Bleachers and Cronus) and worked so hard. Sounds like it went well and that you've made a difference. I wish I could join all of you on this. Great write up!

[Jerseycoa]

19. This is terrific

Thanks so much for your hard work for the General and for us.

:hi:

This morning I had breakfast with a friend at Frank's deli in Asbury Park NJ. He is a lawyer with a NYC government agency. He was telling me about a mutual friend he had dinner with this week. This guy works in tech. Both are gay, white Manhattanites, (to give you the demographic), comfortably off, but not big time, dem loyalists, liberal, and not a couple. Both of them had been leaning Dean despite my best efforts. But this past week they had come to their individual decisions after talking for three or four hours about the two candidates.

They both decided for Clark.

I asked if it was my wonderful powers of suasion, but no. They simply concluded that Dean was no match for GWB in the general election. They were generally disgusted by the Gore endorsement, but that wasn't the main issue. I asked what issue had been the turning point.

You guessed it: National Security.

I wish I could get to NH; no, I don't. I wish I could get to South Carolina, where it is a bit warmer, but trying to do my bit here in the Garden State every chance I get.

[DancingBear]

20. On the button!

National security defines this election. There should be no doubt in anyones mind that this one issue is what Bush will run on. Frankly, I can't understand why others refuse to see it.

One voter at a time, Jersey, one voter at a time..

NH is just like NJ, only it's colder and Long Island is pronounced as TWO words. :)

<adds that DB has many relatives in NJ, and grew up in CT>

[Jerseycoa]

21. Right :)

I never realized it: Longisland -- in New York, too.

[Auntie Bush]

25. correction

New yorkers say Lon giland. But we x LIder's say Long Island. (I now live in beautiful Vermont. Dean Country! But I'm doing everything I can to change that! Wish I could go to NH and help!

[DancingBear]

26. True - I stand corrected

<hangs head>

Where in VT? If it's southern, drive to Keene for the day and help! The group would love to have you.

[Auntie Bush]

27. Heads Up! Yes, Southern VT

I live in Manchester Vermont . Only a couple hours from Keene.
But I don't drive...especially in this weather! But I'd be interested in hitching a ride..if I knew how or knew someone.

[Jerseycoa]

30. Some New Yorkers

Do say Lon giland. Like "sangwich." Not me, though. I'm both a New Yorker and a New Jerseyan. I love vernacular.

[Crunchy Frog]

22. Congratulations DancingBear!

Sounds like you did a great job! I'm only just getting involved in the campaign and not really knowing where to start, having never worked in a campaign before.

Concerning the people who asked about the Department of Peace, next time you might want to point out that Clark has an idea for something very similar:

(1) "The United States needs a cabinet-level or subcabinet-level agency that is charged with developing plans, programs, and personnel structures to assist in the areas of political and economic development abroad. Call it the Department of International Development. Focusing our humanitarian and developmental efforts through a single, responsible department will help us bring the same kind of sustained attention to alleviating deprivation, misery, ethnic conflict, and poverty that we have brought to the problem of warfare. These efforts will reduce the anger and alienation that gives rise to terrorism, and win us more friends and partners around the world. It will be far easier to gain international support for our concerns when other countries see us helping them on theirs."

I'm probably going to get reinvolved in some of our local antiwar groups whose people are mostly Kucinich supporters and at least try to get them to take a look at Clark, though I don't know if I will have any success.

[TLM]

23. I keep seeing this meme... that Clark can win... I don;t buy it

not only does this seem to be Clark's only real campaign point... it seems to be false.

With the capture of Saddam, Clark has lost his only real advantage over W. Now in a fight over who is the best protector, Clark will lose to the guy who captured Saddam.

SO Clark attacks W on the AWOL stuff... W just has to say the past is not important, what is important is our security today, and that the past did not stop W from getting Saddam.

Boom no more advantage for Calrk. If Clark runs the contest would be between the guy who caught saddam and the guy who got fired from his command for making bad decisions.


Clark would lose by a f-ing landslide because he does not have the support fo the dem base or the far left, and the support he does pull from the right would be negated by the capture of saddam and we can't afford that.

[DancingBear]

24. Interesting analysis

Totally and completely wrong, but interesting nevertheless. :)

I'll say it again - this election will be about national security and who can do it right, whether you think so or not. Bush must be the loser in this debate, or we don't win. Simple.

Dr. Dean on national security? Makes me shudder...

P.S. Who is this "dem base" that you speak of? As far as I know, that would be me, and a whole hell of a lot of other folks on this board. We're not the base???

[Jerseycoa]

31. There's that "base" question again

There's that Ignore person again. It's getting so I don't even have to read them anymore to know what they're saying :)

[mouse7]

34. Clark can't lose to a Kurd.

Looks like most of that capture Saddam momentum is going to disappear now that we know the Kurds actually caught him.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=279094

This news is bad for Bush, Lieberman, and Kerry, and good for the rest of the Democratic field (and REAL good for Jim McDermott :D)

Clark's main mistake is entering the field so late, though. I'm not certain if that can be overcome.

[Myra]

28. Thank you so much DancingBear. It is, truly, getting interesting...

And thanks for freezing your digits off for this exceptional candidate.

[lurk_no_more]

29. Great report

Wish I was there!


Just food for thought from….”JAFO”

[Myra]

32. Kick

eom

[GalleryGod]

33. Great Report, Bear!

I respect someone who-as the Kool Kids Media koined the phrase was -"one of the 'boots on the ground' !:donut:

A great "First Person Report"-not some 'rehash from the internet of some sloppy local tv poll"

Keep the Faith!:grouphug:

[JNelson6563]

35. I really admire how you artfully

worked in all those subtle slams to Dean/Dean supporters. Calls to mind the term Mayberry Machiavelli. ;-)

Julie

[DancingBear]

36. What can I say?

It's a gift. :)