Could PACs save Clark?

[ButterflyBlood]

So basically after reading here I've seen the problem Clark faces if he wins the nomination. Basically since he took matching funds, he'll be limited to $45 million until he would officially receive the nomination at the convention. And since the nominee will be obvious far before that, once he spends the $45 million, he can't spend anymore until the convention, and thus would be powerless facing the $200 million Rove smear campaign that would be launched.

However there is an alternate route, which both sides will be using to get over the new campaign finance laws. basically using "shadow groups" and PACs which aren't bound by the laws. Therefore he could survive with PACs running ads in his defense against the smears and bashing Bush. But here's my question: how much control would he have on this? Could he go as far as requesting that a PAC run an ad rebuking one of Bush's, or would he just have to sit and hope someone saves him?

[TLM]

1. Well the americans for growth pac funded by Clark's business partner

in the stephens group is already working hard to attack Dean in NH with their latest ad.

[mot78]

2. Yes

I think they're called 527s. They're groups like MoveON and Soros.

[Lobo_13]

3. The problem here is

that 527's can't coordinate with a candidate in any way.

They'll be busy attacking Bush and may or may not run ads in favor of Clark.

I find it unsettling that the Clark strategy seems to be relying on third parties to provide his exposure.

[billbuckhead]

4. As long as Clark is winning, the money won't be a problem.

A tipping point is coming for Clark/Dean. It could happen as early as New Hampshire.

Almost forgot, theres a tipping point coming for the Chimp-lead/BFEE/PNAC-military-entertainment-industrial complex as well. They might get beat by a human being.

[Lobo_13]

5. I strongly disagree

The money starts being a problem the second he hits 45 mil. Whether he's winning or not.

[dd123]

7. Do you even understand the problem here?

Its not that Clark can't RAISE the money its that he can't USE the money because HE HAS A SPENDING CAP due to taking matching funds.

That was why Dean and Trippi called taking the matching funds suicide and that is why Kerry opted out.

Anyone serious about being the nominee SHOULD HAVE opted it.

[Lobo_13]

9. God only knows

why Kerry opted out.

[ButterflyBlood]

6. that's what I was asking

if they can't be coordinated with him, he'll basically have to hope someone decides to oppose whatever lies Rove is churning.

[Lobo_13]

8. exactly.

It's simply not good strategy to rely on other people to be nice to you. It makes the following assumptions:

The media will treat him fairly.
527's will be willing to help his candidacy instead of bludgeoning Bush.
That Bush won't use his vast resources to go after Clark, especially on National Security. The best lie is one where no one can contradict you.

[dd123]

11. YES Butterfly Blood, you get it.

Clark will not be able to directly respond via TV or radio ads to any of Bush's attacks for 3 months.

There are only so many swing states. It would be very easy to bombard the media stations that normal people watch (non-news junkies) with all kinds of accusations.

Not only will Clark have to combat against Rove but against idiots like the Club for Growth, etc.

He will have unilaterally disarmed himself.

[John_H]

17. So our 527's are run by dopes, and the Rethugs' are run by geniuses?

Lobo--your matching fund shuffle is getting weaker by the second. A week ago you were saying how the Republican 527's were going to kill Clark.

I do feel for you that when it comes to trying to dent Clarks hugely superior electability quotient you have to resort to the matching funds shell game.

[Lobo_13]

21. I'm sorry you tried to pick this argument

because you've got nothing.

Follow the bouncing ball.

The most optimistic estimate is that the Dem 527's will have parity with the GOP 527's. The reality is that the GOP 527's will have more resources as they have huge contribution potential. But using the most optimistic estimate, the 527 factor will be a push. Neither side will have an advantage.

Bush will have 200 mil to run his own campaign. He could split that down the middle between ads and GOTV, and he'd still outspend Clark by 20 times (if you start the clock when Clark wraps up the nom).

This puts Clark at a disadvantage because he'll be fighting a two front war with limited resources. He'll have to defend against 527 attacks, and he'll have to be able to present himself as a viable alternative to Bush. Barring fairies, elves, and angels coming down and whispering in everyone's ears, that takes money.

Bush, on the other hand will have all the money he needs to fend off attacks AND put his smirking face on the tv to let everyone know how good a guy he is. AND he'll be able to fund a tremendous GOTV campaign which is what really wins campaigns.

Since there is no coordination between the campaign and the 527, Clark won't be able to communicate his agenda with anyone. Without that, he's toast.

Dean will be able to reach parity with Bush and be able to fund his own GOTV efforts AND keep himself in front of everyone to present an alternative to Bush.

You can call it a shell game all you want, but it doesn't make the predicament any less real.

[windansea]

10. YES

527's such as the one Ickes runs (expected $75 mill) and others could be counted on to run anti bush ads...this is more than half the battle against an incumbent

Clarks $45 million can be used to define him as a positive candidate

[dd123]

13. Hello! If Clark is anywhere near to winning the primary he will

not HAVE $45 million against Bush because it will all be spent in the primary battle.

Remember, he is going up against Dean who has way more $ than Clark and who did not accept spending caps.

[Clark Can WIN]

24. Hello! He's not spending at nearly the rate of any of the other candidates

Or hadn't you noticed? He hasn't had to. People are flocking to his campaign based on his positive message and the obvious strength of his character aw well as his ability to take on Dubya and send him sniveling back to Crawford.

[Lobo_13]

26. In relation to Dean

he just hasn't spent money in the same place. He's going to have to eventually set up offices and/or add substantial staff in quite a few states in the next few weeks. When those offices get up and running, it's going to be a pretty big drain on funds. Dean has been using him money to establish a presence everywhere.

So far, I remember an article that said Clark spent more in NH on ads than Dean by close to a million dollars.

Dean is just as easily keeping his burn rate low for the exact same reasons as Clark. But the truth is that we won't have access to Cash On Hand for another few days when the campaigns report.

Don't be so naive as to think that any of the candidates are not spending their money at a pretty good clip. And don't be so naive as to think that Clark will magically win the nom without spending money. He'll need to spend against Dean dollar for dollar because Dean has a bigger organization than he does.

[Lobo_13]

18. Clarks 45 mil

minus whatever he spent to get the nom. Against a better funded candidate with a bigger organization on the ground in most places, that will take alot of money.

Even if his fundraising can keep up with expenditures, at best he'll have only 4 or 5 mil after the middle of March.

Remember Clark still has 25 mil to raise. For all intents and purposes, he has to raise that by the end of the quarter. Dean outpaces him by at least a third.

[John_H]

12. This matching fund argument is a ruse intended to fool

People who don'tunderstand how campaigns are funded.

[dd123]

14. Huh?

Don't get it. What are you trying to say?

[John_H]

19. This argument is an attempt to deflect the obviousness of Dean's

unelectability. It gopes like this: "See? See?t Clark won't have enough money to beat the chimp, even though we can't beat him no matter how much money we have."

I'm too tired (especially after a couple of Knob Creek and Waters) to re-explain both the information they are conveniently leaving out, and the numerous ways that ANY Nominee (even Kucinich) would have more than enough opportunity to respond to ANY chimp attack before the convention. But their arguments have been pretty thoroughly debunked by me and others in the numerous threads on the topic, if you have time to do a search.

[Lobo_13]

23. Clark hasn't been impressing me on the electability scale

Please enlighten me on YOUR version of campaign finance. I'm sure it will be a fascinating read.

[Clark Can WIN]

15. Whoever our nominee is will need hipwaders to make it through

The river of cash that will flow either into the campaign or into the supporting PACs. This is a non-issue.

The Presidential Debates and the media coverage of the candidates is a much heavier deciding factor than television and print ads.

The General would not have taken on this fight without a winning strategy. He can win, no question about it.

[Lobo_13]

16. Unless he is running

to try and stop Dean. Because if Dean wins, he's a lock for two terms. Hillary just can't wait until 2012 or beyond.

[ButterflyBlood]

20. oh great

another advocate of that Limbaugh conspiracy theory.

[Lobo_13]

22. Just to counter

the ridiculousness of the "unelectable" argument.

No worries.

[Crunchy Frog]

25. Gosh, I love

seeing right wing talking points parroted on DU.:eyes:

[Lobo_13]

27. You mean like

Dean is unelectable. yeah, that's a hoot.