New ARG Poll: Dean same, Clark - 1, Kerry same, Lieberman +1

[Sean Reynolds]

Beyond Ballot Preference - January 11, 2004
Have John Kerry's and Joe Lieberman's attacks on Howard Dean worked?

When the tracking began, Dean's favorable was 72%, his unfavorable was 19%, and those with no opinion about Dean was at 9%. In the latest tracking, Dean's favorable is at 65%, his unfavorable is at 18%, and those undecided about Dean is at 17%. Over the past 2 weeks, Dean's favorable is down 7 percentage points, but his unfavorable is virtually unchanged.

Of the 65% of likely Democratic primary voters with a favorable opinion of Dean, 54% say they will vote for Dean, 19% say they will vote for Clark, 6% say they will vote for Lieberman, and 4% say they will vote for Kerry.

Of the 18% of likely Democratic primary voters with an unfavorable opinion of Dean, 27% say they will vote for Kerry, 23% say they will vote for Lieberman, and 14% say they will vote for Clark.

Of the 17% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided about Dean, 28% say they will vote for Clark, 6% say they will vote for Kerry, and 5% say they will vote for Lieberman.

While Kerry's and Lieberman's campaigns against Dean have been successful among those with an unfavorable opinion of Dean, Kerry and Lieberman have not been able to increase Dean's unfavorable rating. More importantly, Kerry and Lieberman get penalized among the 65% of likely Democratic primary voters having a favorable opinion of Dean and among the 17% undecided about Dean. This has created an opportunity for Clark.

Likely Democratic primary voters believe any Democrat would be better than George W. Bush and most dislike attacks that could damage any of the potential nominees. This is nothing new, but some campaigns still do not understand it. John McCain learned this lesson in South Carolina in 2000 when he attacked George W. Bush with an ad comparing Bush to Bill Clinton.

Dean - 35% (35% last)
Clark - 20% (21% last)
Kerry - 10% (10% last)
Lieberman - 9% (8% last)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

I bolded the biggest numbers OF this poll. 54% of likely Democratic primary voters back Dean. IMO those are more important numbers than the rest because of course these are likely voters, rather than just people that might stay home.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. This is interesting

Does it send a message?

Clark is too much like Lieberman?

Hawkeye-X

[slinkerwink]

2. heh, who knows? Lieberman gained one point....

[Renew Deal]

3. How do you figure?

Doesn't make sense

[slinkerwink]

4. oh, it does......

;-)

[Renew Deal]

6. Please explain o' wise one.

[slinkerwink]

22. precisely that Clark has republican roots

[Rowdyboy]

23. Please explain "Republican roots"

If all you're doing is another slam at Clark for voting Reagan and Bush I, don't bother to respond. Since his father was a Democratic officeholder in Chicago, he was totally un-political during his military years, left the military, made two statements in favor of the current administration (which EVERY politician was doing after 9/11), then campaigned all out for Democrats in 2002 and is running on one of the more liberal platforms of all the candidates, please explain "Republican roots".

Or was it just a gratuitous slur?

I ask you, specifically, because you are one of the Dean supporters who have maintained respect and civility for other candidates supporters in the past. I'd like to have Dean as a backup in case Clark loses, but you calling Clark a Republican does nothing but make me like Howard Dean less.

[Mattforclark]

11. Nope,

it sends the opposite message. Clark is very much unlike Lieberman, because his support comes equally from "anti-Deans" and "pro-Deans," whereas Liebermans is weighted towards "anti-Deans."

[Renew Deal]

5. Why is Lieberman going up?

Him passing Kerry would be a very bad thing for all of us. That gives Lieberman a hint of life.

Did anyone else notice??? Clark is fighting for many of the same voters as Dean. I wonder what Clarks favorables are.

Also, there seemed to be a lot of opinion in this analysis that there normally isn't.

[w13rd0]

7. Actually, mathematical correction...

...65% of likely Democratic voters have a favorable opinion. Of those, 54% say they will vote for Dean. The remainer (35%) have either a favorable or undecided view of Dean. What that means is that those appealing to an unfavorable view of Dean stand at 18%, and those who attack Dean battle over that 18%. Of the 17% that are undecided about Dean, 28% will vote for Clark, 11 for Kerry and Lieberman, leaving 61% of those "undecided about Dean" up for grabs. It's all interesting information. 54% of 65% is around 34% (consistent with the rest of the results) "for sure", with up to 61% of 17% "up for grabs" (or a possible 10% shift to Dean) when they've "decided". Furthermore, only 29% of the remaining 46% of those with a favorable opinion of Dean seem to have decided who they will vote for, meaning there's another possible +13-14% "for Dean" shift. So this poll gives Dean a "bottom" of 34%, with a "top" of 58%. So your estimate is about correct for the "high" potential. Hey, any number between 34 and 58 percent I'll be pretty happy with...

EDIT: sorry, I mistyped and put Kerry and Clark rather than, correctly, Kerry and Lieberman. I got Lieberman and Clark confused...

[Mattforclark]

13. How do you figure that

"this poll gives Dean a "bottom" of 34%"

That's just what he is at now, not any "bottom." A "bottom" would consist of "hard core" supporters, and there is no measure of "hard core" in this poll.

[DIBL]

14. Fallacy

By saying that 35% is the bottom end of Dean's support, you are implying that any voter with a favorable opinion of Dean and who says he'll vote for Dean will never switch his vote to another candidate. How so? For that to be true, people with favorable views toward Dean would need to have HIGHLY favorable opinions of him so that any favorable opinions they might have of other candidates will not sway their votes, or they need to have neutral or unfavorable opinions of all the other candidates.

Like Matt said, the poll doesn't measure hardcore support at all and votes can still slip away from Dean.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. If Kerry only gets 10% in NH

he is toast.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Impossible!

Clark is surging!
Isn't he? :shrug:

[funky_bug]

24. If you're that excited about a 1 pt slip...

...then that 4pt drop for Dean must have devestated you.

[Mattforclark]

10. I think you misread/understood it.

"54% of likely Democratic primary voters back Dean."

I am afraid this is incorrect. First, one must note that everyone polled in this tracking poll is a "likely democratic primary voter." So for 54% of them to vote for Dean, his poll numbers would have to be at 54%. But they are at 35%.

I think where you got this from is the part that you bolded:

"Of the 65% of likely Democratic primary voters with a favorable opinion of Dean, 54% say they will vote for Dean, 19% say they will vote for Clark, 6% say they will vote for Lieberman, and 4% say they will vote for Kerry."

This means that 54% of those with a favorable opinion of Dean say they will vote for Dean.

54% of 65% = .351 = What percentage say they will vote for Dean.

What one can say about this poll is that it seems like Lieberman and Kerry are getting a greater proportion of their support from people with either negative opinions of Dean or no opinion of Dean that from those with positive opinions of Dean.

In contrast, 19% of the subset of the sample that has a favorable opinion of Dean are planning on voting for Clark, which indicates that Clark has a more even appeal to BOTH those who like Dean and those who do not like Dean (with maybe one or two percent more of those who don't like Dean) to bring his average to 20%.

----EDIT----Clark has more support (28%) among those undecided on Dean than among those who have unfavorable opinions of him (14% for Clark).

I think that this is interesting, because it seems to show that Kerry and Lieberman have support primarily among "anti-Deans" while Clark has support among both "pro-Deans" and "anti-Deans." My personal spin = Clark is the most likely to unite those who dislike and like Dean.

[kerryistheanswer]

12. This poll is garbage

ARG is garbage - I spent years in market research and am convinced that ARG's methodology is totally unscientific. The sample is pseudo-randon and the sample size is hardly significant.

[NV1962]

15. EVERY poll is garbage, if you're looking for "reliability"

Taken together, and over time, they point out trends.

It's like recycling: the more garbage, the better. :silly:

[Adjoran]

16. There is clear movement

This is the series of 3-day tracking polls. The first number is Jan 2-4, the next is 3-5, etc., the last being Jan 8-10. This is less than a week from the left to the right.

Clark 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 21% 20%
Dean 39% 37% 36% 35% 35% 35% 35%
Edwards 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Gephardt 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4%
Kerry 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 10%
Kucinich 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Lieberman 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9%

I left out the candidates polling at 0%. Undecideds have read 16-17% throughout.

With +/- 4% MOE, we can say this much: Clark has clearly surged. Dean has probably slipped a bit, as has Kerry, and Lieberman has likely gone up a bit. This one-week trend shows the dynamic of the race now. With events, that could change next week, of course.

Dean needs to avoid further slippage. Even if he wins with 30% - 20%, he had a much bigger lead a short time ago, and will be subjected to negative press for failing to meet expectations.

Iowa and NH are more about the expectations game than anything else. The candidates who get the best and most coverage will be those who out-perform the predictions. Winning by significantly less than expected is just as bad as losing - there aren't many delegates actually at stake in either contest.

[tedoll78]

17. If he wins Iowa, he gets a bounce..

If he's leading by 15 to 20% in NH right now, he could win by 20% with that IA bounce, which is pretty impressive for a nine-candidate field. Plus, the official media line seems to be that Dean has slipped in NH lately, which actually may relieve some of those high expectations.

[slinkerwink]

18. that's what I think too

[Sean Reynolds]

19. I'd put MONEY on it.

[deminflorida]

20. Iowa is what a week away....

a couple of National polls are to be released on the 12th...look for Dean to lose his front-runner status and slip even further before Iowa and N.H.

[WI_DEM]

21. hmm

I guess you missed the national Newsweek poll released yesterday which gave Dean a 2-1 lead over his nearest competitor? 24-12 over Clark.

[stickdog]

25. Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt have all destroyed their campaigns

with their relentless, picky and often pro-Bush attacks on Dean.

They have become no more than DLC kamikazidates for Clark.

[mot78]

26. OMG OMG Clark has peaked!!!!!

rrrright.