New New Hampshire Poll....

[slinkerwink]

Research 2000 NH poll
by kos
Sun Jan 11th, 2004 at 07:23:41 GMT

Research 2000 has its latest NH effort for the Concord Monitor. MoE 5%. (12/17-18 results in parenthesis)
Dean 34 (41)
Undecided 18 (12)
Clark 14 (13)
Kerry 13 (17)
Gephardt 7 (4)
Lieberman 7 (6)
Edwards 4 (6)
Kucinich 2 (1)
Sharpton 1 (0)
Braun 0 (0)

This is the first non-ARG poll confirming Kerry's fall to third place.
And speaking of that ARG tracking poll, it seems to have stabilized a bit.

1/8-10 1/7-9 1/6-8 1/5-7
Dean 35 35 35 35
Clark 20 21 20 18
Kerry 10 10 11 12
Lieb 9 8 8 8
Interesting how Kerry is now in danger of falling to fourth place. Even Lieberman is showing strength.
Though don't forget that Clark and Lieberman have NH all to themselves.

(Research 2000 numbers courtesy of Polling Report. And people, if you really love polls, you should consider subscribing to the Polling Report. Honestly, it's hard to beat.)

http://www.dailykos.com

[slinkerwink]

1. *kick*

[slinkerwink]

2. fine....another kick

heh.

[ClintonTyree]

3. I don't see...........

the much touted Clark surge in the polls. I see more going to undecided, but I believe they'll go back to Dean before they vote. Kerry's support surprises me, I thought he'd be tough to beat in New Hampshire, I feel sorry for he and his supporters.

[dogman]

18. Look further

On the ARG Clark was 12% on Jan 2-4

[JI7]

4. at least sharpton finally got some support

getting tired of seeing sharpton and braun with 0.

[NV1962]

5. Thanks - interesting

This is what I've read in it:

I think we're seeing a "we got him!" (Saddam) after-effect wafting slightly through the polls, with a noticeable dip in the "undecided" category, which goes both to support of Bush and "the Democrat"

Don't see significant shifts of allegiance though, all pretty mcuh within margin of error.

What I think will become more and more clear is that Howard Dean has a solid support among Democrats / Democratic leaners, whereas Wes Clark seems to solidify appeal on both sides of the aisle. During the primaries, Dean has advantage; if Clark makes it through the nomination, he'll have the advantage.

The previously much stronger "favorable/unfavorable" ratio of Clark (compared to Dean) seems to respond to his growing recognition; Dean seems to profit from the heightened primaries attention.

The race is clearly on.

[slinkerwink]

6. yes, it is!

[Padraig18]

13. A very fair and balanced analysis!

:)

[tedoll78]

7. Very good.

It seems like Dean has settled for now around 34%. Anywhere from a 15 to 20-point lead in a field of nine is impressive.. and this is before he gets any bounce from a victory in Iowa.

I'm not taking Iowa for granted, but if he does win both IA and NH, the state-by-state poll bounces could be decisive in so close a campaign, especially considering that he mostly has either weak leads or is tied at the top in most state-by-state polls.

[slinkerwink]

8. I know.....

[deminflorida]

9. Once he loses his front-runner status nationally, his poll numbers

in N.H. will change too.

[slinkerwink]

10. heh, dream on!

[tedoll78]

11. Despite the hopes of many..

I think he'll be able to run out the Iowa clock. If he gets to Iowa and wins, his chances bounce.

[slinkerwink]

12. *winks*

[Padraig18]

14. Not gonna happen.

His win in Iowa is going to result in a surge of new support.

[slinkerwink]

20. I agree with you on that!

[Karmadillo]

15. Confirms Kerry's fall to third?

Based on the MOE, this poll would seem to indicate he and Clark are tied for second.

[LuminousX]

16. ARG poll shows the 3rd place status

[Karmadillo]

17. I was referring to the statement made in Slinkerwink's original post

n/t

[slinkerwink]

19. yes, you're technically right on that one.