New Zogby Iowa Tracking Released

[BrewCrew]

Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll. Tracking 1/8-10/2003

Howard Dean 25%
Dick Gephardt 23%
John Kerry 15%,
John Edwards with 14%.
Joseph Lieberman 3%
Wesley K. Clark 3%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 1%
Braun 1%
Undecided 14%

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of about 500 likely caucus voters statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday (1/08/04) thru Saturday (1/10/04). The margin of error is +/-4.5%.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=776

[deminflorida]

Wow, where's the Harkin bump?

I don't see it....and Zogby is normally very pro-Dean isn't it? I guess there's just so far you can spin really bad numbers....

Just think where these numbers might go if Clark passes Dean nationally this week.

What happens if Dean loses Iowa and N.H.?

Any predictions?

[KittyWampus]

2. That Harkin Waited So Long & Then Did It To Cover Dean's Butt

over the Caucus thing from the tapes.... didn't look good.

Weird how stuff that should be 100% positive for Dean ends up not.

[LuminousX]

4. Harkin announced 1/9

By the time the media spread the information it this survey was most likely 3/4 done (whatever calls were done on 1/10 after people read the papers and watched the news.)

Harkin endorsement, if there is a bump, will come from a survey taken early next week.

[WI_DEM]

6. your man is doing awfully well

At least Dean is running a national campaign and not a pick and choose campaign. Clark has enough name recognition nationally and postive coverage from the corporate media that even though he may not be actively participating in Iowa his 3% is still a pretty poor showing.

[deminflorida]

14. Staying out of Iowa for as late as he got in was the best move he

ever made....

[windansea]

48. yep n/t

[arewethereyet]

56. Harkin's half endorsement of Edwards took much of the gloss off

he should have just laid off which I guess is close to what he wound up doing.

[chimpymustgo]

1. Tight as a tick. 14% undecided.

Fasten your seat belts.

[windansea]

54. popcorn ready

[WI_DEM]

3. it is going to be nip and tuck

now we have these daily tracking polls to look forward to and I'll bet it is going to be up and down between Gep and Dean for first and Edwards and Kerry for third. If Edwards beats Kerry for third here he goes into NH with some momentum but more importantly into the Southern primaries with some momentum.

[xultar]

5. Lookie like that Dean strategy for helping Kerry will be needed

to fight for first.

How the primaries turn...

[windansea]

42. yes

Dean's in trouble here

[BeatleBoot]

7. Reliable, scientific polls

Don't lie.

And Zogby is definitely reliable.

Clark's been busy in NH, I haven't seen him in Iowa one bit.

Therefore, the Clark numbers don't surprise me.

[bitchkitty]

12. hahahahahahahahahah!

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Reliable, scientific polls don't lie. God, you're funny!

Kind of new at this, huh?

[BeatleBoot]

19. 35 years is all

[bitchkitty]

32. Then you're old enough to remember

2000, and the Zogby tracking polls then.

[slinkerwink]

37. heh

[BeatleBoot]

43. Yes I am

And if I remember correctly, they were within the margin of error.

[deminflorida]

8. Just think there's a debate tonight isn't there?

The first the debate after the Dean tapes were released...should be interesting....

[slinkerwink]

9. the Harkin was on the 9th, and this poll was 3/4ths done

and I expect for the next Iowa poll to reflect the Harkin bump.

[deminflorida]

11. No spinning this one, the tracking says 8th-10th....

n/t

[realdem]

15. Not spinning, just fact.

ANd what you purposefully beglect is that Dean is still leading even after the uncalled for bashing he's taken lately. The man is a survivor.

[deminflorida]

Uncalled for, The words flowing from Dean's mouth on those

tapes are his own, no denying that.

[realdem]

20. It's Gotcha Journalism

Yes he saud it, and now he knows differently. He didn't make a mistake. He simply had a different view then about the caucus process from one who had never been in one. Unlike Clarks statements bout the war from 2002 and from the beggining of his campaign. He is a general. He knows all about war.

[mouse7]

38. No, there really weren't

Dean's words were about the caucus process as a whole. It was NOT directed at Iowa itself.

Lisa Myers at NBC stated that Dean said what he did specifically about Iowa. Lisa Myers created conflict between Iowans and Dean that was not in Dean's words.

[La_Serpiente]

10. The Undecideds can tilt this thing in almost any candidates favor

[windansea]

47. yes they can

can't wait to see this go down

[tedoll78]

13. A few things:

One, this is just one poll. Other polls show larger spreads. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Two, voters are going to see Dean on stage with Gore and Harkin on their local news pretty much every night for the next 8 days. That will make at least a small difference.

Thirdly, a reporter on CNN this morning brought-up the possibility that turnout will be waaay higher than expected because of Dean's new voters. There are patterns supporting this theory.

And fourthly, the timing of the poll is such that it was taken before the Harkin endorsement hit the public hard.

Any way, it will be tight indeed. Good thing all of these candidates are good folks..

[realdem]

Well stated

[deminflorida]

16. The Tracking is 8th - 10th...Harkin will be old news early next

week especially after another debate, which I believe is the first Iowa debate since the Dean tapes where released by MSNBC. I'm waiting on national polls, if Dean loses his front-runner status.....

I could be really bad for him in Iowa....

[slinkerwink]

18. check the new OH poll......

Clark used to lead in the last OH poll, but Dean's leading by 12 points now.

[deminflorida]

25. Super Tuesday State, you'd better be worried about getting out

of Iowa first.

[slinkerwink]

36. oh, we're going to get out of iowa by winning it first, all right....

;-)

[realdem]

22. Newsweek Poll Shows Dean in Front

Shows the Gallup poll was bunk

[JaneQPublic]

28. To add to your third point....

An Iowa reporter commented the other day that since Dean draws a lot of support from college students and other young folks, this portion of Dean support may not be registering in the polls.

That's because young people rely more heavily on cell phones or may be living in dorms or their parents' homes, where calls from the pollsters would not go directly to them.

[Renew Deal]

17. These numbers are interesting

It would be great to know who people's second choice is. This poll means that Edwards is doing well. 3rd for Edwards would be bad for Kerry.

[BootinUp]

21. The Big Story - 75% don't want Dean

The Frontrunner that people are running away from.

[tedoll78]

23. That logic is tired..

geez..

[realdem]

24. By that Logic 80% don't want Clark

in NH

[BootinUp]

29. You've heard of momentum right

Dean - going down
Clark - going up

[shivaji]

39. You are wrong...it is more like 97% DON'T WANT Clark in Iowa

since he is polling at 3% in latest Zogby poll....come on,get real!!

Just because Dean is at 25% in a crowded field of 9 means 75% don't want him? How about passing some your smokes on to me bud?

[HFishbine]

45. 97% Don't Want Clark

He reall should drop out now, by your logic.

[BootinUp]

50. Deans had his 15 minutes

times 1 million.

If there is any candidate that has been aired its Dean. The dynamics are becoming apparent. Instead of the undecideds going to Dean as the frontrunner, they are looking for the best alternative, look at Edwards climbing.

Clark is not running actively in Iowa, we'll have to wait for the next primary to make any strong assessment on Clark.

[windansea]

51. right on n/t

[DancingBear]

26. Cue the (late) Clara Peller

"Where's the bounce?!!" :bounce:

[BootinUp]

30. If i recall correctly

Mondale actually used her in his campaign ads, thats a riot!

Where's the beef?!

[windansea]

44. LOL n/t

[stickdog]

53. "Where's the beef?" has taken on a whole new meaning lately ...

[maddezmom]

27. tight race

with the undecided at 14%, it's going to go down to the wire.

[slinkerwink]

31. yes, it is, but with Harkin stumping for Dean for the next 8 days....

that ought to swing about half the undecideds to Dean's way.

[AP]

34. What about Des Moines Register endorsement of Edwards?

And what about his stellar string of great TV appearances?

[slinkerwink]

35. it accounts for Edwards' rise, but the Harkin endorsement really

means a lot to Iowans, and there's going to be a TV ad filmed with Dean and Harkin that will go on air this week.

[AP]

40. The endorsement was published this morning.

It hasn't registered in the polls yet.

[in_cog_ni_to]

33. Burned bridges.

I wonder. Will the Lieberman 3%, Clark 3%, Kucinich 2%, Sharpton 1% and the Braun 1% go to Dean? I DON'T THINK SO! THEN, throw in the 14% undecided. This doesn't look good for Dean. JMCPO

[windansea]

41. its a nailbiter I tell you!!

14% undecideds.....cue Jaws music

[RevolutionStartsNow]

46. Undecideds in Iowa

I talked to hundreds of them when I was there last week.

Many many of them are leaning Dean, and a certain percentage also said they will probably caucus for Dean simply because he's the frontrunner and has the best organization and therefore the best chance to beat Bush.

Many people are deciding between Dean, Edwards and Kerry. Remember that Gep is a deeply "known" candidate there, there are few undecideds still thinking about him.

Dean is also going to pick up a number of undecideds because of Harkin.

[askew]

49. I was down in Iowa yesterday canvasing for Dean with other MNs

and there were a lot of Iowans who still didn't know that Harkin that had endorsed Dean. So, I think if there is going to be a Harkin bounce, it will show up in the next poll.

[slinkerwink]

55. there's going to be a TV ad this week with Dean and Harkin in it

[stickdog]

52. What everyone seems to be forgetting here is that Gep KILLED everyone

in Iowa the last time he ran there.

A Dean victory in Iowa will be nothing short of a political miracle.