1992 Caucus and Primary Results

[quam]

Iowa Caucus:
Tom Harkin 76.4%
Uncommitted 11.9%
Paul Tsongas 4.1%
Bill Clinton 2.8%
Bob Kerrey 2.4%
Jerry Brown 1.6%
Others 0.6%

New Hampshire Primary
Paul E. Tsongas 33.2%
"Bill" Clinton 24.8%
"Bob" Kerrey 11.1%
"Tom" Harkin 10.2%
Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown, Jr. 8.0%

Considering the 1992 elections, performance of Clinton in those elections and number of qualified candidates for 2003, it is likely the Democratic nominee will not be certain after Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Marian]

1. Would you please do everybody a favor?

Please re-post this every day throughout this Iowa/NH period?


:yourock:

[xultar]

4. Nope, don't post this...why let them know!

Let them go forth and let them do their thing!
This works in our favor...CLEARLY! I'd rather you remove the post!

[quam]

7. Not to discourage anyone

Just thought this information was interesting. Much emphasis is placed on Iowa/New Hampshire.

[ShimokitaJer]

2. Of course, there was no consistent leader there either

Clearly Harkin and Tsongas had focused their energies in different areas when it came to campaigning. If Dean manages to take the top spot in both, it will be difficult to criticize his position.

[adadem]

3. Wow!

Thanks for posting this.

[quam]

5. Sources

Iowa:
http://desmoinesregister.com/extras/politics/caucus2004/pastresults.html

New Hampshire:
http://www.politicallibrary.org/TallState/1992dem.html

[quam]

6. AZ, DE, MO, NM, ND, SC, and OK

Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Oklahoma elections are on 2/3/04.

1992 Demoratic Primary Results

Arizona
Tsongas 34.4%
Clinton 29.2%
Brown 27.5%
Harkin 7.6%

Delaware
Tsongas 30.2%
Uncommitted 29.6%
Clinton 20.8%
Brown 19.5%

Missouri
Clinton 45.1%
Tsongas 10.2%
Brown 5.7%
Uncommitted 39%

New Mexico
Clinton 52.9%
Brown 16.9%
Tsongas 6.2%
Harkin 1.8%

North Dakota
Clinton 46.0%
Tsongas 10.3%
Brown 7.5%
Harkin 6.8%
Kerrey 1.2%

Oklahoma
Clinton 70.5%
Brown 16.7%
Harkin 3.4%
Kerrey 3.2%

South Carolina
Clinton 62.9%
Tsongas 18.3%
Harkin 6.6%
Brown 6.0%

Interesting. I'm really curious to see who will win New Mexico, Oklahoma and South Carolina. If it is someone who does not win in states with earlier elections, he could follow Clinton's map to victory.

[Kathleen04]

8. Thanks, quam..

for posting all of these '92 results..they're very interesting. :)

[mikewriter]

15. Very interesting about Clinton

Good to see the race may not be over so soon. It's just starting to be fun. I want a few more months of this, my primary isn't until March-I hope it's still close by then.

[Lobo_13]

9. Major differences to keep in mind

IA is Harkin's home state. His domination there was a fait accompli, so no one really campaigned there.

NH is Tsongas' region.

There was a lot of regional bias going on for the candidates that won the IA and NH caucus primary.

Another similarity that you might want to draw is that Clinton had more money than all of the other candidates, so he could outrun the rest of the field.

Tsongas spent so much money in NH that he was out of cash shortly thereafter.

The historical relevance of the 92 process is a poor indicator of today's process. Too many factors have changed.

[iowapeacechief]

19. Iowa didn't count in '92

I believe that's conventional wisdom. Harkin was the favorite son, and that was that.

Other years with big fields were more interesting and provide parallels, but no season has been so fast and "front loaded" as this one.

This year is its own phenomenon.

[stickdog]

10. I just reread "Primary Colors."

Every race has its own dynamic.

[hellhathnofury]

11. Actually these would tend to favor a Dean victory.

Dean has been laying the groundwork for Feb 3 and beyond since mid-late Nov.

[Walt Starr]

12. Comparing 1992 to 2004 is apples to oranges, my friend

Two completely different primary seasons.

What's the big deal, you might ask?

The Democratic Party Elitist Power brokers deecided 2004 would be completely different by stepping up the schedule. Everythign is happening faster than ever before. The primaries are coming at a brutal schedule in order to make certain we have our nominee determined by no later than March.

Every indication is, this strategy will be successful and we will have a nominee in a couple of months.

What the Democratic Party Elitist Power brokers failed to take into account was the possibility of a grass roots people powered event taking hold and becoming the biggest money raising machine in party history. They expected to ram through a fair-haired hand picked DLC approved nominee early on. That didn't happen, so they have hand picked a second possibility.

Unfortunately for the DPEP brokers, none of their hand picked fair haired children are in any position to meet the brutal schedule they called for in order to defeat the people-powered Dean machine. At best, they have a long shot in their quickly picked subsititute. If strategies work out the way they look like they will, even that long shot will become a longer shot after New Hampshire.

Things are moving fast and the people are first taking back the Democratic Party in order to take back their country.

[ClarkGraham2004]

14. The DLC has hand picked a second candidate?

You need help.

[NV1962]

13. Very interesting stuff

Thanks for digging it up and sharing, Quam. It's good to see some of the numbers side-by-side.

[sleipnir]

16. These results are meaningless in our current media situation.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but with the increase in the Media perception over the last 10 years, these results are more or less a historical curiosity now. The winner of NH / IA, whoever it will be, will be declared the winner by the ever-strengthening Media and Americans will accept it as the truth. 10, 20 years ago, the Media (especially the Televised Media) didn't hold the tight grasp they do now. I don't know who will win, but the winner will get the nod, the Media will convince the rest of the country that they should vote for said person and follow suit. And America will, because the sheeple believe what they hear on the tube, sick but true, mark my words...

[John_H]

17. The state-run media will forget this if Dean wins both states.

Tweety, CiCi, Broder, Timster, and FAUX will forget this un-proof of Dean's inevitability. Anything to help the chimp, after all.

[Hippo_Tron]

18. The only difference...

Is that in 1992 Tom Harkin probably had Iowa as a sure thing.