David Yepsen on 'This week': "watch the turnout"

[Padraig18]

David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register just told George Stephanopolous that he sees one problem with the polls regarding Iowa: they all fail to take into account 'turnout'; he thinks that the greatest subtext being ignored is the 'tremendous motivation' of young Dean supporters who are not included in surveys of Democratic caucus voters, since so many of them have never voted in a caucus previously.

I suspect his analysis of this flaw is dead-on accurate.

[Rose Siding]

1. Last night Dean said that at an Iowa meeting of 200

or so this week, FIFTY were just registering to vote. It will be key. And it's what he's said all along- there will be new voters.

[Walt Starr]

2. That's a major flaw in most of the polls

So many Dean supprters have never vote before or last voted so maany years ago that it's highly unlikely any of them will ever end up being polled.

This could make a huge difference in any primary and the general election. It's the hidden weapon of the Dean camp. The other piece of this is, these are the people who are most likely to not be transferable.

[Padraig18]

3. Exactly.

He specifically emphasized the tremendous committment of the Dean supporters, in general. He also seems to think the story isn't going to be who wins, but whether Edwards will cause either a Kerry or Gephart loss. He noted that Edwards rise seems to be coming directly out of Kerry and Gephart, and called Dean 'smart' for not attacking Edwards.

[slinkerwink]

4. sounds like Yepsen has the inside track in Iowa

and it's true about the first-time caucus voters, and young people who aren't being reported in the IA polls at all.

[Padraig18]

6. Yes, it is.

What he said also dovetails with what my friends in Iowa are telling me that Gov. Dean's own internal polling show. A little case of pre-caucus 'nerves' is normal, but all the trumpeting about Zogby, et al, is 'much ado about nothing'.

Steady on, troops! :)

[slinkerwink]

8. I'm glad you have the inside track---PM with more details?

;-)

[AP]

9. How would that stop you from being polled?

Either they poll from lists of registered voters (and you're going to have to be registered to vote, even if it's your first time voting) or the call people randomly.

[Padraig18]

10. no.

They're calling registered Democrats, which is determined based on previous voting records, as I understand the process. 1st-time voters will have no 'track record', and neither will Independents and others who are supporting Dean.

[slinkerwink]

11. exactly!

[JaneQPublic]

12. Young people are notoriously hard for pollsters to reach

Many today have only a cell phone.

If they still live at home, the phone is in their parents' names.

If they live in a college dorm, the phones in individual rooms aren't in public directories. Plus, the kids are often registered back home, not in college.

If they share an apartment with other kids, there is only one phone between them.

Oh, and by the way, Dean is getting huge support in Iowa from young folks.

Therefore, apparently a chunk of Dean support isn't showing on the polls.

(edited for typo.)

[Padraig18]

13. That was Yepsen's point.

A LOT of Dean's support isn't counted--- at all--- and he thinks this will shock a lot of folks on caucus night. :)

[SadEagle]

15. They can weight results or search out new demographics

Consider for example what happens if the poll sample has 5% African-Americans, but the turn out model suggests they are 15% of the population? Perhaps they'll put in a weighting factor, or try to poll African-Americans specifically. Zogby's is a "likely caucus goers" poll, IIRC, and not just registered Democrats. Which means it's accuracy is dependent on how well the model of who the likely voters are actually predicts the turnout.

[Padraig18]

19. True.

I'd be interested to know what Zogby's model is.

[tedoll78]

5. I've been repeating this for months now.

There's a pattern happening right in front of our eyes:
- MeetUps flooded with people who have never politically participated before
- thousands of first-time donors to a political campaign
- 1/3 of all donations coming from an unusual source - people under 30
- veteran reporters attending local Democratic Party events and being impressed with the number of people in attendance whom they did not recognize

This could be building-up to something big. If turnout is huge in Iowa 8 days from now, and if it's linked to a substantial Dean victory, then we can conclude that he has indeed hit a nerve with the American non-voting public. I heard the same thing said by one of CNN's reporters this morning also. It's finally sinking-in.. Dean might actually be succeeding at what so many have tried to do but failed. He might actually be reaching some of the 50% who do not usually vote!

[Padraig18]

7. "The Great Uncounted and Un-Polled"

And they are OUR people, by a huge margin.:)

[cryofan]

14. i agree, and also Kucinich will have a higher turnout

Also, but Dean and DK supporters are more fervent supporters and more inclined to be political junkies. These people are far more likely to actually turn out and vote than the general population.

[Padraig18]

16. yup, yup.

:)

[HFishbine]

17. I concur

I think you're right about Kucinich too. I don't know if he'll be able to make it over the 15% threshold, but I suspect his support is greater than the 2% indicated in the polls.

[KaraokeKarlton]

18. Last night at the Linn County banquet on CSpan did anyone see

That black high school boy? He and some other high schoolers old enough to caucus are organizing to get kids who can caucus to caucus for Dean. He said they already had 140 kids in his area and they are working hard to get more. I'm sure those high school students have been ignored by most other campaigns. Any kid who will turn 18 by the 2004 election is allowed to caucus and vote in the primaries. The Dean campaign has done a great job reaching out to these voters!