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According to the Birmingham News, "The Census Bureau on Thursday released detailed population projections showing Alabama growing by 9.6 percent over 30 years, the 17th-slowest growth rate in the country. The U.S. growth rate is projected at 29.2 percent from 2000 to 2030." If this trend continues we will lose a seat. The problem arises in the fact that the district losing people is Artur Davis', which is the court mandated minority controlled district. The News reports that:
The apportionment formula has been used for 60 years and caused Alabama's delegation to drop from nine after the 1930 Census to eight in 1960 to the current seven in 1970. Each district had about 647,000 residents when they were redrawn in 2000.
Politically, losing a seat in Congress is significant and often contentious. Unless someone is retiring, it would likely force two members to run against each other, and it would radically alter the boundaries of all six districts.
In Alabama, the reorganization would be especially trying because the parts of the state losing population are also part of the congressional district that is required, by voting rights laws, to have a majority of black residents.
In 2000, for example, the 7th Congressional District - consisting of parts of Birmingham and west Alabama - had to be expanded because of the population loss, while the 6th District in the metro Birmingham area had to shrink because of population gains.
The changes to the 6th and 7th districts likely would happen again even if Alabama were to keep all seven seats, Webster said.
The 7th is represented by Artur Davis, D-Birmingham, while Spencer Bachus, R-Vestavia Hills, represents the 6th.
Had the 7th lost 20,000 more people at the 2000 census, Davis said, the state could've lost the seat back then. Either way, the 7th is likely to see its percentage of minority residents drop below 62 percent.
And if the minority voting power is diluted because of sheer population loss, it is unclear whether the courts would order that it be restored, Davis said. "That is an open legal question."
Where this goes I don't know, but if Bachus has to run against Davis, I think we may see one less Republican in Congress; the problem is there won't be one more Democrat. Artur Davis is a pretty good politician, and a Harvard graduate. He could win, but he would be helped because of a court-mandated district change, should that happen.
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