Is there a chance in Hell for Alabama going "blue" this year

[Syrinx]

My gut tells me no, but if not now, when?

We've a war that was ginned up for the benefit of the already filthy rich, that has taken the lives of over four thousand American patriots, and hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis.

The economy is teetering on the brink of a second Great Depression. (I saw two different economists on CNN say that last weekend.)

The ironically named "USA-PATRIOT Act" is being used to nail horny governors. (Eliot Spitzer is a grade-A hypocrite, but no "terrorist.")

"Conservatism," as I used to understand it, is not something I necessarily agree with, but it was a logical point of view. I can understand, and even agree with, the idea of a small, weak federal government, that generally deferred to the states, and especially to individuals, though I think a social safety-net is essential to any civilized society.

Today's idea of "conservatism" is one alien creature, for sure. It stands for an all-powerful federal executive, where the legislative branch is impotent, and federal judges yield rubber stamps, stamping out liberty at every turn. It has endorsed and enacted the elimination of Habeas Corpus, ending any pretense of supporting anything that could remotely be called a "free society."

Will Republicans, which those of us in Alabama have been disproportionately "blessed," ever realize that the GOP is anything but conservative?

Can the majority, or even a plurality, of Alabama voters ever embrace the true values of liberalism, or even true conservatism, and help lead the country out of the "neoconservative" hell that this country has become?

Anyone that is familiar with my posts knows that I am not afraid of being called a "conspiracy theorist." I think that conspiracies are quite common, as does the federal government, as do state governments. And I think it is interesting to note that Alabama went from solid Democratic to solid Republican at exactly the same time that our elections started being conducted with optical scan electronic voting. It could be a coincidence, I guess.

Assuming our elections are on the up and up, which candidate do you think would do best in Alabama, Clinton or Obama?

I think Obama would. The vast majority of white racists are Republicans anyway, and I think Obama could energize young voters and black voters. He is a genuinely exciting candidate. I was a baby when Robert Kennedy was running for the nomination, but I think Obama is that kind of electrifying candidate. To paraphrase Chris "Tweety" Matthews, Obama gives me a thrill up my leg. :)

I know this is a rambling kind of post, but back to my original question, is there any chance at all for Alabama to go "blue?" And which candidate, Obama or Clinton, do you think would do better in the general election, in Alabama?

[terrell9584]

1. I see Obama as a nightmare for down the ticket races

And I wouldn't be so sure that all white racists are Republicans. Looking at the returns in the state Obama just got his ass handed to him in North Alabama. Now, that's not my part of the state at all, but, it actually is a part of the state that voted for Clinton.

When you look at Obama's margins in counties like Lawrence, Jackson, DeKalb, and I could go on, it doesn't inspire confidence. And I haven't seen a rush of young people in this area coming out to support Obama. I know that the older people in my family who actually are Democrats, well, one of them has referred to him as "Osama", I have heard the Muslim thing, and his pastor has not helped him at all. These are people who voted for the Duke and they voted for Kerry......they won't go for Barack, not in a million years.

Obama will boost turnout in the black belt and in black neighborhoods in the states major cities, the problem is he will provoke a backlash vote in many of the rural counties, the counties which we count on to keep a majority in the legislature. I'm not saying Hillary can poll better than him in the statewide popular vote, what I'm saying is, where his votes would be coming from, as opposed to hers, are not going to be good for the overall health of the state party. I think Hillary Clinton can win Jackson County. If Obama wins it, it means hell has frozen over.

The results in our primary mimicked Mississippi's, or, Mississippi's were just a more entrenched version of ours. The vote was very predictable demographically, and it has been suggested that at best he got 30% of the white vote in a Democratic primary, Democratic primary mind you.

I just see it causing a potential split in the state party, and I know that a lot of the money people just do not want to be associated with Obama. If there is any advantage, it would be that they won't be giving any money to the presidential campaigns and more of that money will go to local candidates, while the Republicans will be sending their checks to McCain and Sessions. The problem is though, many statewide candidates are going to have this weird catch 22 of whether they try and dissociate themselves from Obama.

It will be a real issue and it would make things real interesting. However, as someone who sees us making major gains in 2010, I just feel nervous about them being possibly threatened

[Syrinx]

3. thanks for the comments

You mention 2010. Artur Davis is considering a run for governor that year. Do you think a black man, whether Davis or Charles Barkley, could be elected governor of Alabama?

I hope you don't mind me asking this, and of course you don't have to answer, but are you black? I only ask because all but one person that I ever met named "Terrell" was black, and I think it would add helpful context to your comments on this subject, if you are.

Thanks!

[terrell9584]

5. there's honestly no significance to the name, a lot of roads have it

I think Davis is running, but I honestly wish he wouldn't, because we kind of have a sure thing in Folsom. If you look at how Folsom won it, he did it entirely by playing to people out in the countryside. That ad about "tennis at the Mountain Brook" club is probably what helped him hold on to the Wiregrass. He got margins in the Wiregrass that were similar to Siegelman in '98, the only reason it was close is because he did not do well in urban areas, but I think as his exposure goes up, his popularity will return in those areas.

A Davis run would split the state party badly and give the Republicans a chance to hold on to the mansion, something that I think they don't have right now. They have no one of statewide stature who is well placed to run for it. Shelby would win it in a walk but I don't think he wants to leave Washington, and, because he has stood for justice (plaintiff attorneys) even after switching sides, there will be a lot of GOP financiers who would work to defeat that idea, because Shelby as governor would mean that tort reform was a dead issue for as long as he was in office.

Troy King is a joke and he is hated on the coast, and, by Roy Moore supporters, and these are two groups that usually don't agree with each other. They have no one, and Folsom is regaining the positive image that people had of him before he was governor. I like Davis because he refused to race bait and came out against everyone who was. I actually was shocked that he ended up beating Hilliard. This said, he's not ready for prime time and the truth is, I don't think the state's ready for a black governor. However, if the right black politician were to hold another statewide office and win high marks there, they may have a shot.

Davis could be the states first black governor, but he won't be winning it in 2010. He's going to have to give up superstardom for a while and run for one of those statewide offices that is usually boring, and not really contested, like Treasurer, Commissioner of Agriculture and Industry, Secretary of State. My God, people pay so little attention that we now have a husband and wife team in statewide office. Because those races were uncontested and no one pumped in money to call attention to that fact and attack them on it. Ron Sparks is now the most popular politician in the state because he won one of these minor offices in 2002 and he won it primarily because he had the lead singer of Alabama "crossing party lines" and making appearances for the childhood friend.

Davis has a wide network of donors, and they will pump in to boost his career. If Davis ran for one of these down the ticket offices, particularly one we don't have, he could probably win it, based on the fact that Ziegler actually lost such a contest, and having a statewide win such as this, and responsibility would put Davis into a position of being an administrator, it would get his name out, and if he did the job as well as you expect that he would, he could easily build broader support in the state's white community, while taking advantage that the passage of time would mean that some of the people who are more likely to vote based on race are older and if you wait a decade, many of them will just die off.

Also, looking at the past history of who has become governor, it has usually not been Congressman. Riley was a real rarity. Hunt's first win doesn't count because that was a revenge vote. Looking at that, the people who we elect governor are people who have usually lost a prior gubernatorial campaign, or people who have held some kind of statewide office prior to it. During the 20th century we did not elect a single Congressman to the mansion. Being Secretary of State might be a droll position for Davis, but it would help him immensely when his time does come.

Right now though, I feel it is Folsom's time, at this time he would be the frontrunner, and he is the primary reason that the whole "bipartisan coalition" thing fell through, because Folsom had ties in that chamber that far outweighed any argument that the coalition thought it could use and Folsom now exercises the kind of power in the Senate that Siegelman had. In retrospect, Baxley was a fairly ineffective Lt. Governor

[trof]

7. I heard Ron Sparks (Comm. of Agriculture) speak last summer.

It was at a South Baldwin Democrats picnic in Loxley.
He said he and Folsum were good friends and they had pretty much decided that one would run for gov. and the other would run for lt. gov.

I guess their decision went to Folsum.
I also met him during the last campaign and liked him.
Damn, he's tall.
I'm 6' 2" and had to look up at him.

[terrell9584]

8. Frederic but....

Got the feeling that's what happened, namely, why Sparks dropped a Senate bid. Was too big a risk to take he could lose (I still think McPhillips coulda won 6 years ago, but he pissed off the wrong person)

I am beginning to wonder though, if Bright doesn't win, but makes a strong showing, might he go for it. Folsom's strength is that all those rural people who have to vote for Sheriff as Democrats (even if they won't in the fall) will be voting for him. Bright would have Montgomery, you would assume, and maybe the Belt. And there has always been talk of a certain pint sized executive/pol wanting it.

Folsom is favored, but it is an open seat... and if you had asked me in 2001 who Bob Riley was I couldn't have told you, he didn't do anything in Congress and we all assumed it would be Siegelman/Windom

[jody]

2. IMO many people who would vote straight Dem will not vote for BO if he's our candidate. Whether that

could help Repugs achieve their dream of getting control of the state legislature remains to be seen but it's a real possibility.

IMO our congresspersons will remain as they are today, Repugs in districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and Dems in 5, 7.

[Syrinx]

4. hi Jody!

How are you feeling these days? Good, I hope.

What do you think about Obama personally?

I think he's the most exciting candidate that I've ever had the opportunity to vote for. I was actually an Edwards supporter until he dropped out of the race. I liked the way he talked about fighting the Republicans. I ate that stuff up, but I've really warmed to Obama.

I have a habit of chatting up my cashiers at various stores where I shop. And the look on one black girl's face when I told her I was voting for Obama sealed the deal.

When the Reverend Wright stuff first came out, I was afraid that would be the end of Obama. But you know what, I think Jeremiah Wright is really pretty much on the mark. I can't say that the U.S. government invented the AIDS virus, but given the Tuskegee "experiments," I can't blame people for believing it. As far as his comments on American foreign policy, they are true. Our government has supported despots far and wide, from the Apartheid regime in South Africa, to Saddam Hussein. That's all he was saying.

Hillary has acted despicably, and cynically in this campaign. If somehow she manages to get the nomination, I will vote for her, because I think she would nominate marginally better judges than McCain would, but if it comes to that, I will have sadness and not excitement in my heart.

[trof]

6. In a word (IMHO): No.

Some of my good-ol'-boy friends can see themselves voting for Hillary, but voting for a black man is a step over the color line they just won't take. At least not yet.

One guy in particular, who made his fortune in disaster cleanup beginning with Frederick, said he did better under Bill Clinton than any administration before or since. I think he's hoping Hillary will be a female version of Bill.

He has particularly high praise for Clinton's FEMA director, James Lee Witt. "That ol' boy had his shit together. It was a pleasure working with him."

Although he was awarded a contract in Mississippi and one in NOLA following Katrina, he pulled out after a few frustrating weeks.
"FEMA is now the most messed up clusterfuck I've ever seen. The 'rules' changed every day. Sometimes twice in the same day. I can't do business like that."

He did a fantastic job of cleaning up the southeast quadrant of Foley following Ivan. it was a godawful mess. And I worked with him for the few weeks that it took. He was on top of everything.

Sorry I got off on a tangent here.

[Syrinx]

9. I know a good ol' boy like that

I don't really know his political beliefs, but I like him personally. He's not nearly as prosperous as the fellow you describe, but similar, maybe, in some ways.

He catches a thrill up his leg when a hurricane disaster hits on the Gulf Coast.

I don't think he is necessarily a bad guy. He's always been nice to me. But I think he is indicative of the "disaster capitalism" that Naomi Klein, among others, has written about.

Our government today doesn't look at disasters as situations to be remedied, as much as opportunities to exploit misery.

That is one sad legacy, of many, of the Bush years.

[Crowman1979]

10. Well the further the gas prices rise...

...the less votes the republicans will receive. I'm sure people in the rural counties won't give a damn which race the candidate is, if they're paying over $5 a gallon. Added to that, only one republican in the AL house of representatives voted for eliminating the sales tax on groceries and the rest of them voted Nay on the bill. Now if that isn't a reason to not vote republican in 08', I don't know what is.

BTW DON'T FORGET TO VOTE IN THE LOCAL PRIMARY ON JUNE 3'RD!!!!