Former Alaskan here! Can someone catch me up on the political races?

[Lucky 13]

What are the latest polling numbers looking like for the Berkowitz/Benson primary? Does Parnell have any traction against Young? Uncle Teddy have any Republican challengers? Gimme the low down.

Also if Begich wins, who's gonna be mayor?

[snowbear]

1. Here's the latest poll info I can find.. (from just a couple days ago)

From the Anchorage Press:

In the Democratic primary, 15.9% of the respondents were undecided; Berkowitz scored 54% while Benson had 25.2% (Don Wright of the Alaska Independence Party was included, and got 4.9% support).

Among Republican voters, 10.1% were undecided, while Young was up top with 46%, Parnell fairly close behind at 38.3%, and LeDoux with 5.6%.

Article: http://www.anchoragepress.com/site/basicarticle.asp?ID=768

As far as Mayor Begich.. I can safely say that most Alaska DU'ers here prefer Eric Croft over anyone else who has shown an interest in running.



Croft plans to run against a very weasley, dirtball assembly member, Dan Sullivan who SUCKS.

In the r-THUG primary, besides Ted Stevens..... some strange dude named "Vic Vickers" is running, but no one in the state knows who the hell he is.

If Stevens' trial is in DC, he will be toast and Begich (who is already slightly leading in the polls) will win.

If for some crazy reason the judge allows the trial to be in Anchorage and Ted wins it.. there's a good chance the old fart could win simply because of a "backfire effect" of the trial. (Or so says Jeffrey Toobin on CNN).

In other words, Toobin meant that if the trial was here and he wasn't convicted. He could easily win the race by residents thinking "how dare those outsiders try to convict an innocent Alaskan?"

Toobin also said it would be highly unlikely for the judge to allow the trial to be in "Ted-friendly Alaska"

Good!

[Blue_In_AK]

2. Delete - meant to respond to OP

[Blue_In_AK]

3. I was in Kenai yesterday

for a women's run which Ted attended. He appeared to be extremely popular down there visiting and being photographed with many people, looking relaxed and comfortable. Outside of his usual milieu he seemed very approachable and kind of sweet in a grandfatherly way. After the run, we spent a little time visiting with an acquaintance of one of the women I was with who lives in Kasilof -- they are obviously good strong progressive Democrats, but both said they were supporting Ted Stevens because he has always come through for them on personal matters that they needed government help with. And, in fact, that has my own experience, as well. I personally have far more problems with Don than Ted, and Ted's troubles just make me feel a little sad, honestly.

From what I've been hearing from my circle of friends -- which admittedly are probably not Larissa's since we back different Congressional candidates -- a lot of people both inside and outside of Anchorage don't trust Mark Begich and his real estate deals. I don't think he's going to walk away with this race by any means. Ted is still extremely popular and I think a lot of people would vote for him whether or not he's indicted, convicted or even sent to prison.

As far as polls in the Congressional race, I'm not sure I would trust those either, as polls seem to be notoriously unreliable here. Specifically, I remember how Tony Knowles was polled to defeat Lisa Murkowski, and we all know how that worked out. I know Larissa is sure that Ethan is going to win the primary -- perhaps he will, but in that case, I wouldn't be surprised to see Don Young retake the Congressional seat. I am more and more certain, that barring something unforeseen, Don Young will win the Republican primary. I wouldn't have thought that before, but Sean Parnell is pathetic and everyone knows it, and Gabrielle LeDoux, who I personally think is the best Republican candidate, probably doesn't stand a chance. Ethan has some strong support in Anchorage, but the independents and a lot of progressive Democrats -- in my circle of friends, at least -- are not impressed with Ethan Berkowitz at all, and think he's just more of the same -- politics as usual. We are distrustful of the amount of money that he has taken from Rahm Emanuel's PACs and suspect that Ethan will roll over for AIPAC. That's fine with some people -- a lot of us don't like it. Many oldtimers don't see him as "Alaskan" enough, and see him as just another wing of the California delegation.

It should be an interesting race. It's no secret that I am a die-hard Diane Benson fan. I have met both candidates -- Ethan some time ago before he even was in the state House -- and we just did not connect at all. He was a prosecutor at the time, I was just a lowly legal secretary/paralegal working in the office of lawyer friends of his when he would come in to visit. Even though I was in the room, I may as well have been invisible. He did not impress me then or now. Diane I have known personally since 2005, and I trust her implicitly.

That's just me, and I don't doubt that Larissa has a different experience. That's what makes politics so interesting up here.

ed. Having read the linked Anchorage Press article, I think it should be pointed out that Ivan Moore is probably not an unbiased pollster. I'd be interested to know where he got his sample.

[Blue_In_AK]

4. Lucky, one more thing re Ivan Moore's bias (the pollster)

Here's a little tidbit I dug up on ActBlue

"I’ve been a pollster in Alaska for nearly 20 years. In early 1996, Ethan Berkowitz and I were next door neighbors. He stopped me in the driveway and said he was thinking of running for the Alaska State House. The rest is history, and the two of us have been essentially inseparable ever since."

If that's an unbiased pollster, I'm the queen of England.