Arizona US Senate seat

[Kevin Spidel]

Jim Pederson taking on Republican incumbent Kyl
http://www.mydd.com/story/2005/5/2/1298/72701#comment_top

Over the weekend I wrote a brief outlook here on the chances for Democrats retaking the Senate, mentioning that in Arizona, Kyl is not the strongest of Republicans, but there's not an obvious Democratic candidate yet running. While true, the more substantive statement is that Jim Pederson, the millionaire entrepreneur state Dem chair, is highly likely to take on Kyl, and it'd be a huge surprise to insiders in Arizona if he doesn't. An Arizona polling outfit, Wright Consulting Services, tagged onto a poll done last week in the state two horse race questions for the US Senate race. Here are the results:
Wright Consulting Services, poll completed 4/24; MoE +/- 4.1; 95% level of confidence.

Kyl Pederson Undecided/Other

Statewide: 46% 17% 37%

Democrat: 19 41 40
Republican: 72 2 26
Indep./Other: 27 11 62


Maricopa county: 48 18 34
Pima county: 42 22 36
Rural AZ: 44 12 44


Fund. Christian: 68 5 27 (20% of voters)
Main./Lib. Christ. 44 24 32 (38% of voters)
Not religious: 30 23 47 (15% of voters)
Here's the analysis:
Off the top, Kyl doesn't break 50% from the get-go and this is without ANY declared opposition. This is very encouraging for Pederson, as Kyl has been an incumbent, congressman or senator, for a long damned time. And it's a Red-leaning state. The guy hasn't bothered to build an identity or a constituency here, as he's always faced wimpy and/or under-funded D's and always has been able to call in the corporate/local good old boy dough whenever he needs it. Pederson has dough, can raise more dough. If he goes, this is not the `normal' reelection cakewalk for Kyl from the start.
Second, Kyl is weak in Pima (not surprising) and his numbers in the rurals are very underwhelming (very surprising). And you get an indication from the religion xtab his base support is theocon Republican.

Bottom line, this guy Kyl is vulnerable, especially if Pederson has the wherewithal to go for it and go for it aggressively. Framing Kyl as an extremist and a corporate lackey will fly in these parts, especially in rural AZ. And Pederson has a crucial need to declare early lest voters think it's another `slam dunk' for Kyl coming up. Kyl is the poster boy for an aggressive progressive campaign in 2006 which can help to begin turning the extremist tide.

Obviously, there's more going on with this race than CW would suggest.

Click "Extended Entry" for the rest...
Senate 2006 :: Mon May 2nd, 2005 at 12:12:57 PM EDT :: Extended Entry (869 words in entry) :: 19 Comments

[NoodleBoy]

1. hell yeah.... thanks for posting this

made my day that much better, thanks man.

[NAO]

2. Kyl is one of the worst senators, IMHO

and I would love to see him defeated in 2006.

Kyl IS an extremest AND a corporate lackey.

Don't forget that though AZ is a "red state", we have a Democratic Governor and Pima County and much of Southern Arizona is very blue. I suspect it's the Mormon temple in Mesa that contributes to the states overall redness.

But defeating Kyl should be a MAJOR objective of the Arizona Democrats, and also a MAJOR objective of the DNC as we need all the senate seats we can get, and one less extremest theo-con extremist/corporate lackey in the Senate would be very nice.

[blondeatlast]

5. He's as Bushbot as Bushbot gets, and it's going to make him

even more vulnerable. The Dems merely need to HAMMER him on Social Security and he's a goner. His vote on the Murray amendment will be a killer, too.

He can't think on his feet, he needs every issue vetted for him.

He will, he MUST, go down.

[azndndude]

3. Being from AZ , I am glad to hear this!!

[blondeatlast]

4. Pederson is my LAST choice, actually.

I'd much rather see Goddard run against Kyl. Nonetheless, Kyl IS vulnerable--he's about as Bushbot as Bushbot can get.

We can, and will, defeat Kyl in '06.

Pleas! He's MY senator--ugh.

[demzilla]

6. Pederson is a great party chairman, but

his money will be matched by the GOP and it's not easy to knock off an incumbent senator who has not been caught in a sex scandal or taking cash from the mob. Pederson is not the most inspiring speaker or figure. Frankly, the only Dem in the state with a 50/50 chance of winning would be Napolitano -- and she has other things in mind. After her second term, she would have a good shot at an open seat.