What are Pederson's chances to beat Kyl?

[Turtlebah]

I really hope he wins! I'm sick of voting for Dems, in a red state, cause they never win! What will it take for people to wake up and start voting against damn Repugs?

[NoodleBoy]

1. I'd say he's got about 40%, but that's the best chance we've got

we'll see how his campaign and the other coordinated campaigns unfold over the summertime. each party has a "strong" incumbent running for re-election-- Napolitano in our corner, Kyl in theirs--but Kyl is nowhere near as known or loved as Janet, and he's been in the shadow for so long that he's practically got to build name recognition for himself the way Pederson needs to do.

Still, Kyl's campaign will probably focus 90% of its resources on TV ads, something Pederson can't hope to match, but a strong, effective--and cheap-- door-knocking campaign once in a while overcomes the millions that will be spent attacking our candidate.

[CPMaz]

2. It would be an upset, but not a huge one

Kyl is very closely associated with Bush, and that alone could make or break his re-election campaign.

In addition, Pederson's name recognition is growing, and next week's fundraiser with Bill Clinton will help a LOT in that regard.

He isn't as well-financed as Kyl, but he's not on a shoestring budget, either. Uphill battle? Yes. Unwinnable battle? No.

BTW - Welcome to DU.

[Turtlebah]

3. Thanks for the welcome :-)

I had to get a new nick, and re register.. I used to be Dez here..
I hope Pederson wins! I can't stand KyLL .. we have to get him out of office! And Renzi too! But no chance to get him out this time around *sigh*

[jillan]

4. I'm feeling pretty optimistic

Kyl is even more to the right than bsh

I honestly don't know much about Pederson, but he's got the best
chance of winning against Kyl. And that's good enough for me.

[saracat]

5. Jim Pederson is a very nice man. He isn't a politician, and I think,

in this case, that is a plus. He is exceptionally well financed and this will be a television war. I think Jim is going to win. He has a rags to riches story and is a self made man.And Kyl has alienated the Repugs who would have supported him by playing dirty. Many don't like his tactics. When the Kyl team attached liberal agenda to jim's signs many distanced themselves and expressed disgust. Kyl also has nothing new to say about immigration and Jim has a stance people can live with. Jim can win and he is a dedicated Dem who put his money where his mouth is. He is the reason the Arizona Dem Party is a national player. He gave us 3 million dollars the last cycle as well as being chair. Our offices are in his building. We owe Jim big time. And I just like him personally.Factoid, he contributes big and has won awards from the humane society and that counts big with me!

[NoodleBoy]

6. word

people seem so damn stewed that he isn't running around screaming "single-payer health care! out of Iraq !" without realizing that he's basically responsible for letting people say those things and having others listen.

[catmother]

7. yes. i think people like rags to riches people. i know i do. can

someone tell me out of 100 senators how in the hell did kyl make it into the best 10. it was said that he works behind the scenes for the good of the party. so that makes him a good senator? what has he done for us arizonans?

[jillan]

8. I can't think of anything Kyl OR McCain have done for this state!

Janet is the only one fighting for the people of this state.

[Greyhound]

9. It's still early and this is a pretty solidly R State, but I think he has

a real chance. So far, I've seen very little of him but his ad that points out that Kyl cast the deciding vote the the prescription drug debacle is a winner.
With Kyl's glaring vulnerability as a dedicated boot-liker, it is Pederson's to win. IMO

[NoodleBoy]

10. my girlfriend made a really good point about Kyl's immigration ad

she's a little more conservative, and she says she agrees with him, but he's been in office for something like twenty years now and none of those things have gotten done.

[Greyhound]

11. This is the one issue that they pretend to disagree over, but the reality

is that neither one wants to fix it. None of the proposed plans, :kick: or re:puke:, does one damn thing to help. On balance Pederson is far better than that POS Kyl, but Pedersons "proposed plan" just ensures his company will never have to pay the prevailing wages to its workers, nor require it from the sub-contractors that work for him.

[catmother]

13. do you know for sure that pederson hires illegals and pays

them less than the prevailing wage? i don't know too much about pederson but i do know that he created a lot of jobs for arizonans. do you have some proof to back up your statement?:eyes:

[Greyhound]

14. He is a real estate developer in Arizona, I would bet serious cash

that there are more than a couple of illegals doing the work, not to mention the ever popular scapegoat, "it was the sub-contractors! I had nothing to do with it." :eyes:

As I said, he is light years better than Kyl, but lets not pretend he is other than what he is.

[catmother]

15. i don't even pretend to have the answers to the immigration

problem. i do know that it would be quite an endeavor to round all of them up and deport them. i'm sure there are many illegals who are gang members and criminals. now they would be easy enough to recognize and deport and i'm not just talking about mexicans. even if someone had a visa or was a legal resident -- no matter what their race, i would deport them.

when i hired a general contractor to build my house, i assumed he would hire subcontractors who did quality work. i have no idea whether any of them were illegal.

and of course pederson is better than kyl -- maybe he did hire subcontractors who hired illegals. don't think we'll ever know for sure.


on edit: one thing i do know for sure, if i were a mexican living the way some of those people do, i would cross the border in order to have a better life.

[Greyhound]

16. As all of us would (cross over in the hopes of something better).

I don't, and never have, blamed those coming in, as you say, they are looking for a better life. The answer is really simple and eliminates the (perceived) need for building walls and motes and minefields, and doesn't require anybody to be rounded up and sent anywhere.

Nail the employers. If the penalties for hiring illegals are so severe that they risk losing their businesses and spending a stretch in the federal prison system, I will guarantee you there just won't be any jobs available for them, and they will stop coming. As for the 10 - 25 million that are here, they will move themselves. Many will go home, some will go to Canada, some will stay here and wait to be caught, but given time, the problem will cease to exist.

[catmother]

17. you're absolutely right. it comes down to greed on the part of

the people who employ them. more money in their pockets.

i think you know that i'm looking to get out of here. i'm leaving for costa rica 6/11 on a fact finding trip. if i like it we'll plan to retire there in a few years. on the other hand, i might not like it and count my blessings for being here.:shrug:

[saracat]

22. Stop with the RW talking points.

How does trashing Jim get us a victory?

[Greyhound]

25. Who's trashing him? What right-wing talking point?

I've stated several times in the previous replies that he is vastly superior to Kyl and that I intend to vote for him.

Nonetheless, he is an Arizona real estate developer and to suggest that he doesn't have an interest in keeping a large supply of illegal labor here, suppressing the wages that he has to pay, is naive at best.

Are we supposed to avoid stating the obvious because it is politically inconvenient? Are we allowed to look him in the eye, or must we keep ours lowered in his noble presence?

Convincing more voters that he is a better choice than Kyl gets "us" a victory.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

12. I hope others make the same connection

I can't believe the nerve of him in that ad! Where HAS he been, lo these past 2 decades?

[alstephenson]

18. Why don't any of Pederson's ads or signs identify him as a Dem???

Can someone please explain the Democratic Party's strategy about this? Is he ashamed to run as a Democrat, or what??? I don't get it. I'll support John Verkamp in the primary - he's anti-war, which means alot to me, and Pederson needs to be asked the hard questions and solidify his position on the war, among other things. Pederson shouldn't get a free ride just because he's a Democrat (he is a Democrat, right? Hard to tell...).

[NoodleBoy]

19. yes, he's a dem, and he's trying to reach out to all voters

funny, since trying to be nonpartisan usually gets people's respect. he can't win--and therefore, represent Arizona way better then Kyl can--if all he does is reach out to other dems.

[jillan]

20. I like Pederson's slogan.

To me it says that he will represent the people of this state, something that Kyl has never done.

[saracat]

21. Verkamp is a former Republican and he couldn't get on the ballot.

Your reasoning is counterproductive. We have only one choice Pederson or Kyl. If Jim runs as a liberal Dem, he loses. Is that what you want? AZ is a red state and he has to represent everyone. I don't care if he gets a "free ride". He is the only Democrat and I am not going to vote for Kyl. If Jim gets a Dem majority in the Senate. I am all for it!

[lonestarnot]

23. I was told by his people yesterday, that he is coming out against the

war next week. hmmmmmmmmf. we will see.

[saracat]

24. Really? Maybe they told him about Edwards!

I have been literally begging Jim to say something for two years even before he officially declared. I wonder if , at this point, it will matter? Maybe they finally think it is "safe' but his "people" are always saying that he is going to say something next week and it doesn't happen. So, I say "hmmm." too!