Broken down to its simplest form, Arizona is three areas- the Tucson/Pima County Area ("Baja Arizona"), the Phoenix/Maricopa County area ("The Valley"), and the north of the state-- that goes from Prescott through Sedona to Flagstaff and ends in the Indian reservation in the Northwest. Also, Arizona elects State House and State Senate members from 30 legislative districts across the state-- each district elects one Senator and two Reps. The rep candidates have to run together and against each other, so competitive races will usually see four candidates all running in the same district.
Baja Arizona is the most liberal part of the state, from the bottom up, except for Cochise County, which forms part of the base of what is one of Arizona's swing districts-- CD8, held by Gabby Giffords. She's being challenged by the state Senate President Tim Bee, a somewhat moderate guy who may not be crazy, but is definitely not better than Giffords. Apart from the Giffords race, there is, to my knowledge, one legislative district race that may be competitive, but it's not near that district. There's more information at www.rumromanismrebellion.net-- that's a blog centered in that area, but it's also the state's best liberal blog so it usually covers more.
The Valley is the most populous, and could be considered the most conservative part of the state. Phoenix is the capital, and alot of people think that because Phoenix is the fifth largest city in the US, the way Phoenix votes determines election outcomes for the entire state. That assumption couldn't be more wrong-- Phoenix gives Democrats only small victories during even-numbered election years, and that's usually dwarfed by huge Republican victories in 20+ other cities in the Valley. There are two races thought to be competitive in the Valley-- in CD3, Bob Lord is challenging John Shadegg, an entrenched Bush clone, and in CD5, hometown hero Harry Mitchell, a Democrat, will be defending his seat from who knows what shills will try to run against him (he's considered pretty safe if nothing major happens). Even though the district Bob Lord is running in is considered a safe call for Republicans, it has much the same demographics as CD5 does, and in 2006 Harry Mitchell was able to knock out one of Arizona's worst gasbags to get the seat. Anyway, these races will be something to watch. Meanwhile on the local level, there is much room for winning in the Valley for Democrats-- If I recall correctly, LD10, Ld20, LD21, and maybe LD22 and 23 may become competitive. 20, 21, and 22 are all in the East Valley-- the most conservative part of the Valley, and where most of the Mormons live. Also in the East Valley is a race for the County Board of Supervisors-- a young guy named Ed Hermes is challenging an incumbent who hasn't had to run a campaign for 15+ years. And lastly, the two biggest races I think we'll have in the state--not just the Valley-- are going to be for County Attorney and County Sheriff. I can't really easily break down why they're bad simply, so here's a link to
http://news.phoenixnewtimes.com/2008-02-21/news/new-times-files-a-prelude-to-a-lawsuit-against-sheriff-joe-arpaio-county-attorney-andy-thomas-and-a-discredited-ex-special-prosecutor-on-behalf-of-its-readers-and-the-constitution/"> a New Times article. These are also good blogs to read for the area: cpmazrandommusings.blogspot.com and ademlament.blogspot.com.
Northern Arizona is going to be interesting. It's sparsely populated, and probably has the most varied kinds of people in it. In parts, there are retirees who vote conservative, members of the Mormon church who register as Democrats but vote Republican, ranchers who vote Republican, the college community at Northern Arizona University who vote Democratic, new-agers in Sedona who vote strangely if they bother to register, Native Americans who are a real swing bloc, and so on and so on. What makes it important is that CD1 covers this entire area and then some-- it's actually larger than the state of Pennsylvania (I think there's a law somewhere that says if you mention Arizona's CD1 anywhere, you must also make note that it is larger than Pennsylvania), and it even curls around the Valley to take in a huge portion of Eastern Arizona and a bit of Central AZ. The current occupant of the seat is Rick Renzi, (R-Indicted). He's not running again, and it looks like an industry shill is going to get the Republican nomination, you know, just to expedite the assigning of a dollar value to every last acre of land up there and selling it to the lowest bidder. There are two major candidates running for the Democratic nomination. And by two major candidates, I mean one serious candidate and one who will pander to whoever will give him visibility. You might detect a hint of sarcasm in that last sentence, but it's for a reason-- Ann Kirkpatrick is running for the seat; she's a former prosecuting attorney and member of the AZ House of Reps. The campaign of the guy running against her so far has seemed to consist of trying to out-liberal everybody and calling Kirkpatrick a Republican clone. Now, some people have said that being a crazy liberal in any election is a strength, that people who find your views repulsive will vote for you because you "stand on principle" and etc., but in 2002 the guy who won the Democratic nomination when it was a new seat was also a crazy liberal, and had a pretty large personal fortune to spend on his campaign. He wound up being easily defeated. In my view, running another crazy liberal, but this time without a personal fortune to spend, will get Arizona another Rick Renzi. I've been called some pretty stupid stuff on DU and other places for saying this, but I guarantee you, and you can look me up in November, if the "Every other Democrat is a Republican" people get their guy as the nominee in CD1, he will lose.
So anyway. That was long. I'm going to go eat.
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