AZ related. Hope it's okay to cross post this.

[Mike 03]

“I think two of his twelve homes are here.”
-- Don Bivens, Arizona Democratic Party Chairman


Hastily typed notes from a conference call with Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens about the growing likelihood of “McCain losing in his own backyard.” Aired on P.O.T.U.S. XM channel 130.

(I typed this quickly, so I apologize for not getting more of it down.)

Bivens: “According to a Cronkite poll taken this weekend by (Bruce Merril), one of the most respected pollsters here in Arizona, John McCain is in danger of losing Arizona…”

Bivens then cites three other polls that show either a dead heat or Obama up by one point (Project New West) and a Carol Zimmerman poll showing Obama with a two point lead.

Bivens: “As Arizonans, we’ve known for a long time that John McCain is vulnerable here… We need to remember that even in Arizona McCain did not poll 50% with the Republican vote in the Republican primary. His number there here was 47%. And he’s doing no better than that statewide.”

Bivens discusses McCain’s feuds and in-fighting with other Republicans and his general unpopularity here in Arizona.

Blivens: “I would say that these polls really do reflect the fact that the people of Arizona really do know him best and are rejecting John McCain because they know we can’t afford another four years like the last eight. McCain likes to pretend that he hasn’t sided with George Bush 90% of the time, but we do know him here and that is what we’ve gotten… more of the same failed economic policies that don’t help Arizonan families more than they help anyone else. Indeed, from my perspective, Senator McCain has spent more time in Washington than Arizona…”

Bivens then discusses the “hot” issue of immigration and how after saying he would do something about it, McCain backed away from the entire issue entirely.

Bivens: “He’s ignored Arizona’s needs, but he’s had enough time to lobby companies however to put up cell phone towers in (some town name) which is north. So what you are seeing in Arizona is what you are seeing nationally: Very strong support for Senator Obama from Hispanic voters, young voters, Independents, and even Republicans. The Cronkite poll shows that Senator Obama has been closing the gap by attracting Independents and women, and I would suggest that is really part of the pattern that is happening in the inter-mountain west, in other states (such as) Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana, Arizona is simply part of that same rising tide.”

Bivens: “I think the McCain campaign has been very confident that Arizona was in the bag. This is his home state. I think two of his twelve homes are here. But we’ve gotten a long look at John McCain these last 26 years and people here are hungry for change…”

“The Democratic party here is in its strongest position ever. We’ve just reached one million registered Democratic voters for the first time in history… We have been out-raising the state Republican party by enormous margins…

“Independents in Arizona have been breaking for Democrats historically by a two to one margin. Last week we reached out to 75,000 Independents in a statewide voter contact effort. To date, in this election cycle, we’ve made over one million voter contacts… So, for the first time since 1966, our party is poised to send five or even six of our eight Congressional delegates as Democrats to Washington. We are in a position to take back the statehouse; we need four seats to control the house… We need three seats to control the Senate… and I’m THRILLED to be in a position to potentially deliver our electoral votes to Senator Obama.”

Q&A

Journalist from Arizona Republic asks if the reason for Obama’s outstanding showing in AZ is because he’s outspending McCain.

Bivens: “The answer to how much the Obama campaign has spent on advertising in Arizona is: Zero. To my knowledge the only people here who have seen ads would be somebody who happened to see some national cable station. So I don’t think there’s any basis for comparison about spending, because as far as I know it’s zero to zero in terms of campaign spending here…”

Bivens explains why he feels our chances are so good, because of the national campaign, and because Obama is “galvanizing at a measurably higher level of intensity the turnout.”

AP reporter asks if it is true that McCain is “as popular with Democrats as he is with Republicans” in Arizona.

Bivens: “The proof is in the numbers, and we have a dead heat, remembering that in Arizona there is a Republican registration edge of about 96,000 at this point and about 854,000 Independents … It is the Independents that are making the change here… The base here is turning out pretty well for both Republicans and Democrats… I’m looking at a landscape that shows us in a dead heat, with Independents making the difference… If we were looking at a senate race today, between McCain and our Governor, (Democrat) Janet Napolitano, which I see as (happening) in 2010, all the polling to date shows that Napolitano wins that by eleven points. So that ought to give you some sense of what McCain’s fortunes are.”

Bivens: “. Arizona’s growth has been so phenomenal… We are at a point now where roughly half of the registered voters in Arizona have either never seen McCain’s name on a ballot or saw it once…. So there are a lot of people here who literally don’t know him.”

Reporter for Rawstory.com asks if Obama campaign will shift funds to AZ for advertising or make appearances to take advantage of this polling gap. Also, is Obama’s success here due in part to Howard Dean’s 50 State Strategy?

Bivens says he has talked to the Obama campaign about taking additional steps to make AZ more competitive. “The situation is fluid… Those discussions are continuing… I’m hoping they can free up a little bit of that money to help us get over the top here. I think the 50 State Strategy has worked well everywhere…”

Reporter from Firedoglake.com: Can Obama come to AZ before the election next Tuesday? (Please, YES!)

Bivens: “Well, I’d like to say ‘Yes.’ But I don’t have any indication that that’s true. Like I said, I’ve had discussions with the Obama campaign about trying to do something to get us over the top in this dead heat. So, I’m asking. Let me put it that way. And I don’t know what’s going to happen.”

End.

I'd love to see the Obama campaign redirect some campaign funds and resources here, if they can safely spare it. I have a gut feeling that Obama is very, very close to turning this state blue. It might not be probable, but it is definitely within our grasp

{EDIT TO FIX MY MIS-SPELLING OF BIVENS' NAME--SORRY}

This is exciting. I haven't felt this good in, um, eight years.