Looks like we might stay red.

[NoodleBoy]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040922/ap_on_el_pr/kerry_bowing_out&cid=694&ncid=2043

WASHINGTON - Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry (news - web sites) has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.


Can someone give me hope beyond Zogby polls?

Does anyone know how the poll numbers for the congressional campaigns?

[fdr_hst_fan]

1. No offense intended,

but I'm old enough to remember when red didn't mean "Republican"!

[Parche]

2. states

I still think Missouri can be won, we need that or Ohio to win

[papau]

3. GOP breaking law and using 100 million RNC funds for Bush over

next 5 weeks.

Seems 2 weeks ago the RNC decided that if they close an Ad with support the Congress GOPers, they could spend on Bush ads.

So there is a rethink I would assume on the timing of Kerry ad buys.

[Cha]

4. Sounds promising!

If the rethugs can do it..so can Kerry!

[NMDemDist2]

5. the Kerry camp says they are pulling the ads for a week, not forever n/t

[iamladybug]

6. Don't Go Soft

Talking Points: Ad Strategy, 9/23/04



(Background: In order to hold a "reservation" for television ad time in Arizona, the campaign would have been required to pre-pay for them yesterday. We did not, but that does not affect our ability to buy TV in Arizona at any time.)



* Nothing has changed - not our ad strategy or our campaign strategy. We are campaigning aggressively in these states, and we still have the resources and the ability we need for a major TV advertising campaign in them - in addition to the media and grassroots campaign we have been running in them for months.



* We do not discuss our strategy with the Bush-Cheney campaign through the media. But rest assured, the
Kerry-Edwards plan for a new direction for a stronger America is working across the country - especially after George W.
Bush's 4 years of wrong choices to hurt the middle class in exchange for benefiting his well-connected, powerful special interest
friends. Meanwhile, the Bush-Cheney campaign’s continued run of ads shows that they also view Arizona as a battle ground in
serious danger of turning Blue.



* And paid media is only one leg of the stool. The time of our principals and surrogates is our most precious resource
- because they generate invaluable earned media coverage with every trip to a state - and they have been and are still investing
this most precious resource into these states.



* John Kerry came to Phoenix on May 6th.

* John Kerry returned to Phoenix on June 18th.

* John Kerry planned to come to Tucson, but canceled due to President Reagan’s death.

* John Kerry came to Northern Arizona for 2 days on August 7th.

* Biggest ever John Edwards crowd outside of his home state

* Biggest ever Teresa Heinz Kerry crowd outside of her home state

* Cate Edwards came to Arizona for her first solo trip

* 3rd Presidential Debate in Tempe, AZ

* THE GOP CONTINUES TO SEND A STEADY STREAM OF PRINCIPALS AND SURROGATES, DEMONSTRATING THEIR KNOWLEDGE THAT THEY ARE IN DANGER OF LOSING THE STATE.





* Additionally, we have a strong and growing field operation in Arizona - with a historic number of campaign staff, and a tremendous and growing volunteer corps.



* Statewide Volunteer Pool over 35,000

* Statewide Vols Engaged Since Dem Convention 12,783

* 29 Field Offices- most in the history of Arizona

* 37 Field Staff- most in the history of Arizona



* The key point is that we are committed to winning and we are putting resources into all the battleground states. Never
before has a challenger had this kind of money to spend and to go state for state with an incumbent. Especially challenging
Bush in states that he won in 2000.



§ DO NOT LOSE HOPE – WE ARE FIGHING LIKE CRAZY IN ARIZONA AND WE WILL KEEP FIGHTING RIGHT THROUGH ELECTION DAY!!!

_________________________________________

[iamladybug]

7. Don't Take My Word...

[e-mail] wrote:

9/20/04

Dear Friends,

Enough of the handwringing! Enough of the doomsaying! Do I have to come there and personally calm you down? Stop with all the defeatism, OK? Bush IS a goner -- IF we all just quit our whining and bellyaching and stop shaking like a bunch of nervous ninnies. Geez, this is embarrassing! The Republicans are laughing at us. Do you ever see them cry, "Oh, it's all over! We are finished! Bush can't win! Waaaaaa!"

Hell no. It's never over for them until the last ballot is shredded. They are never finished -- they just keeping moving forward like sharks that never sleep, always pushing, pulling, kicking, blocking, lying.

They are relentless and that is why we secretly admire them -- they just simply never, ever give up. Only 30% of the country calls itself "Republican," yet the Republicans own it all -- the White House, both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court and the majority of the governorships. How do you think they've been able to pull that off considering they are a minority? It's because they eat you and me and every other liberal for breakfast and then spend the rest of the day wreaking havoc on the planet.

Look at us -- what a bunch of crybabies. Bush gets a bounce after his convention and you would have thought the Germans had run through Poland again. The Bushies are coming, the Bushies are coming! Yes, they caught Kerry asleep on the Swift Boat thing. Yes, they found the frequency in Dan Rather and ran with it. Suddenly it's like, "THE END IS NEAR! THE SKY IS FALLING!"

No, it is not. If I hear one more person tell me how lousy a candidate Kerry is and how he can't win... Dammit, of COURSE he's a lousy candidate -- he's a Democrat, for heavens sake! That party is so pathetic, they even lose the elections they win! What were you expecting, Bruce Springsteen heading up the ticket? Bruce would make a helluva president, but guys like him don't run -- and neither do you or I. People like Kerry run.

Yes, OF COURSE any of us would have run a better, smarter, kick-ass campaign. Of course we would have smacked each and every one of those phony swifty boaty bastards down. But WE are not running for president -- Kerry is. So quit complaining and work with what we have. Oprah just gave 300 women a... Pontiac! Did you see any of them frowning and moaning and screaming, "Oh God, NOT a friggin' Pontiac!" Of course not, they were happy. The Pontiacs all had four wheels, an engine and a gas pedal. You want more than that, well, I can't help you. I had a Pontiac once and it lasted a good year. And it was a VERY good year.

My friends, it is time for a reality check.

1. The polls are wrong. They are all over the map like diarrhea. On Friday, one poll had Bush 13 points ahead -- and another poll had them both tied. There are three reasons why the polls are b.s.: One, they are polling "likely voters." "Likely" means those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election. Second, they are not polling people who use their cell phone as their primary phone. Again, that means they are not talking to young people. Finally, most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week. You are being snookered if you believe any of these polls.

2. Kerry has brought in the Clinton A-team. Instead of shunning Clinton (as Gore did), Kerry has decided to not make that mistake.

3. Traveling around the country, as I've been doing, I gotta tell ya, there is a hell of a lot of unrest out there. Much of it is not being captured by the mainstream press. But it is simmering and it is real. Do not let those well-produced Bush rallies of angry white people scare you. Turn off the TV! (Except Jon Stewart and Bill Moyers -- everything else is just a sugar-coated lie).

4. Conventional wisdom says if the election is decided on "9/11" (the fear of terrorism), Bush wins. But if it is decided on the job we are doing in Iraq, then Bush loses. And folks, that "job," you might have noticed, has descended into the third level of a hell we used to call Vietnam. There is no way out. It is a full-blown mess of a quagmire and the body bags will sadly only mount higher. Regardless of what Kerry meant by his original war vote, he ain't the one who sent those kids to their deaths -- and Mr. and Mrs. Middle America knows it. Had Bush bothered to show up when he was in the "service" he might have somewhat of a clue as to how to recognize an immoral war that cannot be "won." All he has delivered to Iraq was that plasticized turkey last Thanksgiving. It is this failure of monumental proportions that is going to cook his goose come this November.

So, do not despair. All is not over. Far from it. The Bush people need you to believe that it is over. They need you to slump back into your easy chair and feel that sick pain in your gut as you contemplate another four years of George W. Bush. They need you to wish we had a candidate who didn't windsurf and who was just as smart as we were when WE knew Bush was lying about WMD and Saddam planning 9/11. It's like Karl Rove is hypnotizing you -- "Kerry voted for the war...Kerry voted for the war...Kerrrrrryyy vooootted fooooor theeee warrrrrrrrrr..."

Yes...Yes...Yesssss...He did! HE DID! No sense in fighting now...what I need is sleep...sleeep...sleeeeeeppppp...

WAKE UP! The majority are with us! More than half of all Americans are pro-choice, want stronger environmental laws, are appalled that
assault weapons are back on the street -- and 54% now believe the war is wrong. YOU DON'T EVEN HAVE TO CONVINCE THEM OF ANY OF THIS -- YOU JUST HAVE TO GIVE THEM A RAY OF HOPE AND A RIDE TO THE POLLS. CAN YOU DO THAT? WILL YOU DO THAT?

Just for me, please? Buck up. The country is almost back in our hands. Not another negative word until Nov. 3rd! Then you can bitch all you want about how you wish Kerry was still that long-haired kid who once had the courage to stand up for something. Personally, I think that kid is still inside him. Instead of the wailing and gnashing of your teeth, why not hold out a hand to him and help the inner soldier/protester come out and defeat the forces of evil we now so desperately face. Do we have any other choice?

Yours,

Michael Moore
www.michaelmoore.com
[e-mail]

[iamladybug]

8. As For Congress...

I find this encouraging:

-----------------------------email:
From: "Lanya Shapiro" <givebushtheboot@e...>
To: "givebushtheboot" <givebushtheboot@e...>

Hey everyone,

I was on a phone call with Trippi last week, and again he did not fail to impress with his common-sense genius. (No matter what you think of Trippi, you gotta admit he's a pretty great strategist.)

I missed the first part of the call, but here's what I got:

- At this point in the cycle, he always focuses on House races, every time.
- Everyone already knows which Senate races are hot, and people are obviously focused on the Presidential, so when you're 30-50 days out the House is
- the only place where you'll find any new opportunities.
- House races are often won by come-from-behind candidates -- and often they don't come-from-behind until late in the game, sometimes even the last week.
- As opposed to Senate and Presidential campaigns, the budgets for House races are small enough that $100,000 can make a difference. (I might have gotten the number wrong, but you get the point.)
- As we all know, Kerry won't be able to accomplish anything without help in Congress, and if Bush is re-selected, a strong Congress is our only defense."
-------------------------------

[NMDemDist2]

9. ladybug you are the bomb

glad to have you working here for us :bounce: