Nasty primary campaign expected between Newsom and Brown
Newsom likely to set harsh tone against de facto incumbent Brown
By Steven Harmon
Contra Costa Times
SACRAMENTO — Ten months away from the primary elections, Democrats are already bracing for a withering gubernatorial battle that could leave their nominee scarred and weakened and in no position to withstand the ensuing onslaught sure to come from a well-financed Republican opponent.
It is almost accepted wisdom among political observers that San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom will embark on a hard-hitting, possibly harsh, course in an attempt to bring down the much better known Jerry Brown, the attorney general and one-time governor who holds large leads in polls — thanks largely to a family connection dating more than 50 years to state politics.
And the hits may start rolling out as early as this fall, likely after Labor Day, as Newsom tries to pick up his so-far moribund fundraising efforts.
"If you're Gavin Newsom, you have to put the spotlight on Jerry Brown," said Ben Tulchin, a Democratic political strategist who has helped run three gubernatorial races but is not attached to either campaign. "Brown is almost the de facto incumbent — he's the known entity. Gavin has to raise doubts and get people to consider an alternative."
Newsom has been campaigning all over the state for months, introducing himself to California residents who may only know him as the defender of same-sex marriage. But he remains stuck behind Brown in polls, and the fundraising totals he revealed last week showed a campaign that's in need
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of a boost. He's raised $1.6 million — with $1.2 million still on hand — but Brown, still not an official candidate for governor, has raised more than $8 million.
"The simple reality is that Newsom has to raise a lot of money and then he has to deal with the fact that he's primarily a creature of one media market, San Francisco," said Bill Carrick, a veteran Democratic consultant. "Once he gets to the level where he's well enough known that people consider him an option, you get into the question of whether he has to go aggressively after Jerry to peel people off him."
The problem is that to get better known, he needs more campaign cash. After failing to generate much enthusiasm with an online grass-roots approach mimicking President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign, Newsom has apparently switched to a more conventional route. His longtime political adviser, Eric Jaye, quit, indicating the growing influence of consultant Garry South, who will likely sharpen his candidate's message, observers said, to try to win the attention of big donors.
And that's rattling some Democrats' nerves. They can just see how it all plays out. Newsom, under South, who is known for aggressive, no-holds barred campaigns, will likely go on the attack against Brown, charging the 71-year old politician with being out of touch, perhaps reminding voters of why he got the Governor Moonbeam label, unloading on any number of Brown's past decisions as governor, mayor of Oakland and attorney general. And Brown would be forced to return the shots in kind, leading to a free-for-all that could provide plenty of ammunition for Republicans next year.
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http://www.insidebayarea.com/oaklandtribune/localnews/ci_13022212?source=rss
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