http://www.cahsrblog.com/2009/12/the-2009-business-plan-is-out/The 2009 Business Plan Is Out
Dec 14th, 2009 | Posted by Robert Cruickshank
Submitted one day early, the 2009 California High Speed Rail Business Plan is now available to the public. It is 145 pages long, but there are two basic points that you’re almost certainly going to hear about over the coming hours and days:
1. The estimated cost to build Phase I of the project is $42.6 billion
2. Estimated HSR fares are 83% of airfares
Both of those are higher than before, which will almost certainly lead to a new round of “oh my god high speed rail is a boondoggle we can’t afford, we have to kill it before it bankrupts us!” nonsense from the usual suspects.
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The 2008 Business Plan assumed a system cost of $33.6 billion. The 2009 Business Plan assumes a system cost of $34.9 billion. So where does the $42.9 billion number come from?
The first two numbers are in 2008 dollars. However, as a condition of receiving federal stimulus money, the CHSRA was told they had to cost it out in “year of expenditure” dollars – the projected cost when the money is actually spent. Assuming inflation, the overall cost rises to $42.9 billion dollars.
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