Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke?

[robertpaulsen]

Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke?
By NATE SILVER

Proposition 19, a ballot initiative in California that would give local authorities the ability to legalize and tax marijuana for personal consumption, appears to have lost ground in the polls.

Calculating a trendline from all surveys on the initiative suggests that about 46 percent of Californians plan to vote in favor of Proposition 19 — a yes vote would legalize marijuana in the state — but 47 percent plan to vote no. This reflects a reversal from before, as the ballot measure had led in most surveys prior to this month.



snip

There are good reasons to think the polls could either be overestimating or underestimating Proposition 19’s support. In spite of the recent trends against Proposition 19, therefore, I would be inclined to take the recent polling at face value, which suggests that the measure has about even odds of passing.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/21/is-proposition-19-going-up-in-smoke/#more-2405

Looks like it's neck and neck. I already sent in my absentee ballot voting yes, but I'm not sure how things will stand come election day. I hope the yes on 19 folks haven't already spent that $860,000 in individual contributions and put out an effective TV ad! I haven't seen one yet!

[kestrel91316]

1. Everybody I know is voting YES on Prop 19, just FYI.

[robertpaulsen]

2. That's good to hear!

Everyone I know is voting for it. I had one co-worker who wasn't sure, had problems with how the law would work out in various counties. But after I explained the law was drafted with a provision that allows for future amendments to fix any potential problems that might crop up, he sounded likely to support it. Candidate Brown might not support it, but if the voters pass it, I'm sure that Governor Brown will do his best to make the law work, regardless of Holder's protestations.