The greatest margin any poll(an August LA Times poll) had was Bustamante by 13% over Arnold.
I found this summary of polls taken before the election.
Poll Schwarzenegger Bustamante McClintock
Final Results* 49% 32% 13%
RCP Average 41.5% 31.5% 14.0%
Survey USA (10/3-10/5) 46% 34% 13%
Knight Ridder (10/1-4) 37% 29% 15%
Field Poll (9/29-10/1) 36% 26% 16%
Survey USA (9/28-30) 45% 28% 16%
LA Times (9/25-29) 40% 32% 15%
Gallup (9/25 - 27) 40% 25% 18%
Cal C of C (9/24-5) 35% 31% 17%
Survey USA (9/19-22) 39% 32% 18%
PPIC (9/8-17) 26% 28% 14%
LA Times (9/6-10) 25% 30% 18%
Survey USA (9/6-8) 39% 29% 16%
Field Poll (9/4-7) 25% 30% 13%
Stanford U (8/29-9/8) 40% 28% 8%
Cal C of C (9/1-4) 28% 33% 12%
Survey USA (8/23-25) 45% 29% 11%
LATimes (8/16-21) 22% 35% 12%
PPIC (8/8-17) 23% 18% 5%
Field Poll (8/10-13) 22% 25% 9%
Gallup (8/7-10) 42% 22% 13%
Time/CNN (8/8) 25% 15% 9%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/California_Recall3.htmlI think realclear politics is tilted to the right but the poll info seems to be correct.
Exit poll data seems to match up too:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/replacementballotexitpoll.htmlhttp://vote2003.ss.ca.gov/Returns/summary.htmlArnold won because he's a celebrity...nothing more, nothing less.