Colo. Seeing Tough Senate Primary Battles

[CO Liberal]

Underlining emphasis mine. If Miles has only garnered 21% support after two years of campaigning, how do you Miles supportes expect him to win in November? :shrug: - Wayne

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Colo. Seeing Tough Senate Primary Battles

Both Parties See Unexpectedly Hard-Fought Senate Primary Battles in Colorado

The Associated Press

DENVER Aug. 6, 2004 — The conventional wisdom was that Peter Coors, the wealthy beer baron with a face for TV, would coast to the Republican nomination for Colorado's open Senate seat. And that Attorney General Ken Salazar, a veteran campaigner touting himself as a folksy farmer with deep Colorado roots, would grab the Democratic nod without a fight.

It hasn't been that simple: Attacked by conservatives in his own party, Coors is in a dogfight with former Rep. Bob Schaffer for the nomination. Salazar has been in a rough fight with educator Mike Miles, a former Army Ranger who has been building grass-roots support across Colorado for two years.

<snip>

A Denver Post poll published Friday showed Coors was favored by 45 percent of 400 likely GOP voters while Schaffer was backed by 41 percent. The lead falls within the poll's margin of error of 5 percentage points. Salazar, meanwhile, was favored by 67 percent Democrats to just 21 percent for Miles.

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http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20040806_1066.html

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Koff. Remember Nightmare?

That was *BEFORE* he decided to retire. It was expected that Nightmare would win another one easily.

More and more people are *starting* to notice Miles.

I noticed that you are avoiding this topic, Wayne. It shoes the true colors of Salazar.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=142x1055

[goodhue]

2. Poll skewed by name recognition

"Nearly one-third of the 300 likely Democratic primary voters in the poll said they had never heard of Miles."

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36%257E64%257E2239261,00.html

According to poll, 67% of 300 favored Salazar. That is 201 out of 300. So about half of Salazar's support had never heard of Miles. Will these likely democratic primary voters who have never heard of Miles go today to the poll that counts?

Also, won't heavy Boulder County turnout favor Miles?

I don't know likelihood of Miles upset, but it will be much closer than a 67 to 21 percent poll would suggest IMHO.

[Freddie Stubbs]

3. After two years of 'campaigning' he still has low name ID?

What kind of campaign has he been running?

[goodhue]

4. that is what the poll indicates

I'm not in CO so I don't know much about the campaign. I assume the focus is grassroots organization, which is not necessarily picked up on in polls.

[Freddie Stubbs]

5. A well run grassroots campaign increases the candidate's name ID

It appears that Mr. Miles' campaign may have failed that part.

[goodhue]

6. I assume his name ID has increased.

200 of the 300 had heard of Mike Miles.
I suspect that two years ago, none of the 300 had heard of him.
My small point was that Salazar's huge lead in poll is in part influenced by some folks not being aware of Mike Miles.
As for the post mortems, how about holding off for eight hours.

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. Being unknown by 1/3 of the electorate is not enough to win

when you are in a two person race against a well known opponent.

[Hawkeye-X]

8. Are you in Colorado, Freddie?

No? then Eff off.

Hawkeye-X

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. Nope, but

I have some friends working there. ;)

[CO Liberal]

11. Truth Hurts, Eh, Hawk?????

We'll see what the results are tonight, but I'm sure the Salazar will be our candidate.

[CO Liberal]

10. Poll Skewed By Facts

Ken Salazar is more popular and better known than Mike Miles. And no amount of posturing from the Miles supporters will change those facts.