Your Colorado Zogby

[F.Gordon]

Damn, the local “news” still doesn’t have anything good to report yet. Kerry is still leading. I took out the region numbers and have started including a few more important numbers. The Hispanic vote and the under 34 age groups.

Big swing in the “investor class” and over 75K income numbers. This poll has bush* leading by 8% and 3%. But this poll has Kerry leading in all income groups under 50K. Is he starting to bring home the middle class, or is this a one time polling event? Kerry leading with the male voters still has me baffled.

A big one day swing in the Independent Voter numbers, and only 7.5% of Democrats voting for bush* is also very significant. But the largest swing since these polls started is the Hispanic voter….Kerry getting 84.2%. Is Salazar feeding Kerry? He’s now leading mister silver bullet by 10%!!!!

bush* 46.7% / Kerry 48.5% / Other 1.7% / NS 3.4%

By Party: Democrat
bush* 7.5% / Kerry 88.3% / Other 2.2% / NS 2.0%

By Party: Republican
bush* 90.0% / Kerry 6.7% / Other .3% / NS 2.9%

By Party: Independent
bush* 28.6% / Kerry 62.9% / Other 1.8% / NS 6.7%

By Race: Hispanic
bush* 14.4% / Kerry 84.2%

Age: 18-24
bush* 27.4% / Kerry 68.6%

Age: 25-34
bush* 41.3% / Kerry 56.6%

Gender Male:
bush* 44.4% / Kerry 51.5%

Gender Female:
bush* 48.7% / Kerry 45.6%

...I'll try to keep posting these every day...time permitting.
Later.

[mzmolly]

1. These numbers look great!

:hi:

[Pirate Smile]

2. I've seen from other polls that Kerry is leading big with single men

(and women). The gap appears to be married v. single.

As a married women, I am very disappointed in the stats for married women - Wake up all you Mrs!

[politicat]

10. I'm married and voting Kerry...

And a precinct captain.

Here in Boulder County, I'm getting anti-kerry stuff only from young women and young men of a certain type... the bling-bling, pimp crowd. Go figure. Fortunately, most of them aren't interested in voting at all.

Is it cynical of me to write these children off? You know, I know my generation (Gen X) was supposed to be lazy, self-interested slackers, but we're positively little busy bees compared to these whiny little *****.

No offense to anyone who actually is in that age group and is working and motivated.

Pcat

[BigBigBear]

19. If past is any precedent

Kerry will carry Boulder easily. But have you to been to Longmont lately? Bush/Cheney signs all over the place.

Sorry - I still think Bush will win Colorado, and Salazar will take the Senate seat.

[ochazuke]

3. Neighboring Kansas also shares that oddity

Kerry doing better among men than women. What's up with that?

[bettyellen]

4. they told me this in col.. it's going blue!

[paulk]

5. Yet we still have all the pundits on the national level

giving CO to Bush.

?????

Who knows. This poll is encouraging - and I doubt Bush went up to Greeley the other day because he likes the way it smells...

[F.Gordon]

7. I.Have.No.Idea.

The fact that Zogby has Kerry winning the male vote has me questioning the numbers. Even so, that wouldn't throw off the under 30 age group, the Independent numbers, and Dems voting bush* THAT much. IMO these are the more important groups that can give Colorado to Kerry. But, they need to vote....

A 1/4 of registered Dems voted for The Lord of Darkness in 2000. With no "poll" that I can find showing over 10% this year, that's a VERY good sign. But, they need to vote...

"Polls" like SurveyUSA (9 News) are total bullshit. They have over 30% of Blacks voting for bush*. In 2000 Gore got 100% of the Black vote and Kerry is polling at 100% this year.

[politicat]

11. Kerry is getting the vet vote.

Every male I know is pro-kerry, even if otherwise a conservative, is voting Kerry because he went to Vietnam instead of being a cowardly, draft-dodging druggie.

Pcat

[coloradodem2005]

8. Yeah. But they are also giving the senate to the Republicans too.

I think we should take the Presidency and the Senate this year.

[paulk]

9. I'm counting on it

:-)

[F.Gordon]

6. A 2000 comparison

A 2000 Comparison

Looking back on the 2000 elections can give you a little insight into what the differences are for 2004. Even though there are 10 3rd party candidates on the Colorado ballot I don’t know that they will consume the 6.8% that they did in 2000. Who does that favor? I don’t know. Zogby has Libertarians voting heavily for Kerry. That’s the only specific 3rd party they are polling.

Numbers to compare. The percent of Democrats voting for bush*, the Independent numbers, the under 30 age group numbers, the Hispanic percentages, and the over 75K income group.

However….. While the comparisons of the 2000 final results and 2004 “polling” numbers look very good for Kerry, the only number that matters is the first percentage listed here. bush* won Colorado in 2000. Don’t assume for ONE minute that Colorado is a LOCK or Colorado is “going blue”. Y'all know what ya need to do...

bush* 50.8% / Gore 42.4% / Nader 5.3% / Other 1.5%

By Party: Democrat
bush* 24.0% / Gore 76.0%

By Party: Republican
bush* 82.0% / Gore 14.0%

By Party: Independent
bush* 53.0% / Gore 47.0%

By Race: Hispanic
bush* 33.0% / Gore 67.0%

Age: 18-29
bush* 60.0% / Gore 40.0%

Age: 30-44
bush* 57.0% / Gore 43.0%

Age: 45-59
bush* 45.0% / Gore 55.0%

Age: 60+
bush* 50.0% / Gore 50.0%

Gender Male:
bush* 60.0% / Gore 40.0%

Gender Female:
bush* 48.0% / Gore 52.0%

The under 30K income group was won by Gore. Bush* won all income groups over 30K

75K+ income group
bush* 76.0% / Gore 24.0%

[F.Gordon]

12. 10/27/2004: Repeat after me….

"The president is once again well-positioned to carry Colorado."
"The president is once again well-positioned to carry Colorado."
"The president is once again well-positioned to carry Colorado."

Bush and the RNC drastically scaled back their ads after Kerry pulled his. For example, they'd planned nearly $155,000 in spots on KCNC alone. On Monday, they chopped that to about $32,000.

Bush-Cheney spokeswoman Nicol Andrews would not say where the campaign will redirect the dollars, answering several questions on the subject with the same reply: "The president is once again well-positioned to carry Colorado."

The local “news” media must be scrambling to buy...err...find a poll that shows bush* leading. 9News should have had one of their polls out today showing bush* ahead by 99%. :eyes: Kerry now has a 4% lead with Zogby. Maybe the bush* people should send Hannity or someone to Colorado Springs to firm up the “base”.

Kerry is still leading with men voters, but today he is also leading with women. Bush* only has a 2 point lead now with the “investor class” and Kerry leads by 3 points again in the 75K+ income group. The big turn around in this poll was the middle aged voter.

And Salazar now leads the Colorado “businessman” who once actually made his own coffee, but has never figured out how to use a stapler…. 53.4% to 41.9%.

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bush* 45.8% / Kerry 49.9% / Other 1.1% / NS 3.3%

By Party: Democrat
bush* 6.5% / Kerry 91.9% / Other .6% / NS 1.0%

By Party: Republican
bush* 90.5% / Kerry 6.9% / Other .4% / NS 2.2%

By Party: Independent
bush* 25.2% / Kerry 63.6% / Other 2.2% / NS 9.1%

By Race: Hispanic
Bush* 26.3% / Kerry 73.7%

Age: 18-24
Bush* 33.7% / Kerry 59.6%

Age: 25-34
Bush* 36.1% / Kerry 61.8%

Age: 35-54
Bush* 46.6% / Kerry 49.2%

Gender Male:
bush* 45.1% / Kerry 52.0%

Gender Female:
bush* 46.4% / Kerry 48.0%

Make It Happen!!!

[F.Gordon]

13. 10/28/2004: Kerry 47.8% bush* 47.0%

OMG! A county clerk is biased against Republican candidates. They assisted voters who really didn't need any help. Too funny. The republicans control the “news” media, the airwaves, our State government, and most counties. And of course, none of them are biased against Democrats. :crazy:

DENVER (AP) - There are more complaints about election procedures in Pueblo.

Republican poll watchers filed a complaint today claiming election officials in the Democratic stronghold failed to require early voters to produce identification and allowed assistance to voters who did not need help.

They say county clerk Chris Munoz didn't respond to their concerns so they went to the secretary of state and her office will review the complaint.

A spokeswoman for Donetta Davidson says the office will already have an official observer in the clerk's office at the request of the state Republican Party over complaints that Munoz is biased against Republican candidates.

Sorry this is late. Another Zig-Zag-Zogby. Bush* gains 3 points again. This time on the weight of huge swings in the Independent voter (large “other“ and “not stated“ percentages), a huge flip-flop on the under 24 year old voter, big swing in the Hispanic voter, and here’s the really odd one..... bush* leads in the under 15K income group 58.3% to 26.7%. We all know that poor people are a huge target demographic for republicans. :eyes:

Kerry still leads in all other income groups under 50K and is only down 2 points in the over 75K group. Bush* is back to leading the Investor Class by 3 points. The gender numbers are closer to where the should be. The really good news in this daily poll is the percent of Democrats voting for bush*: only 5.9% And Kerry is still polling well enough (IMO) with the Independents to bring home this State.

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bush* 47.0% / Kerry 47.8% / Other 2.6% / NS 2.6%

By Party: Democrat
bush* 5.9% / Kerry 91.0% / Other 1.8% / NS 1.3%

By Party: Republican
bush* 90.9% / Kerry 7.8% / Other .4% / NS .8%

By Party: Independent
bush* 30.6% / Kerry 53.7% / Other 7.4% / NS 8.3%

By Party: Libertarian
bush* 14.0% / Kerry 46.3% / Other 39.7%

By Race: Hispanic
bush* 38.1% / Kerry 58.1%

Age: 18-24
bush* 47.1% / Kerry 44.8%

Age: 25-34
bush* 43.4% / Kerry 54.5%

Age: 35-54
bush* 45.0% / Kerry 49.0%

Gender Male:
bush* 49.7% / Kerry 45.7%

Gender Female:
bush* 44.4% / Kerry 49.7%

Edit? Correct a bad grammer error so ya don't think I'm a total idiot. Polling right now shows that I'm only a 78.4% idiot.

[F.Gordon]

14. 10/29/2004: Your local forecast

A cold front is developing over Crawford, Texas today. This front is moving rapidly north into Colorado. Clouds will be building tonight and tomorrow over our local media so expect light bullshit showers starting Saturday morning developing into heavier bullshit showers starting in the evening and continuing throughout Sunday and Monday.

Okay, before you look at these numbers and throw your chair at the computer monitor, let me try to explain. Bush* hasn’t moved - Kerry just sank. Both sides are still consistent with their own party, but the unaffiliated voter and the third party voter have thrown the numbers for today way off. Also, the undecided voter numbers have actually increased in some categories. Go figure. I can’t. Kerry still has a 20 point lead with the Independents and is well under 10% of dems voting bush*. This is still a very significant number. In 2000 we lost 24% of dems, in 1996 we lost 13%, and in 1992 we lost 19%.

Salazar also dropped 7 points in one day. And again, it wasn’t Coors moving, it was Salazar falling. I hope this is a one day polling event and not a sign that the Reform Party (Nader) and the Green Party are going to fuck this up for us again. If Amendment 36 was already law this wouldn’t bother me….

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bush* 47.3% / Kerry 45.8% / Other 3.4% / NS 3.4%

By Party: Democrat
bush* 6.4% / Kerry 90.6% / Other 1.8% / NS 1.3%

By Party: Republican
bush* 91.2% / Kerry 5.9% / Other 1.0% / NS 1.9%

By Party: Independent
bush* 30.1% / Kerry 49.6% / Other 10.4% / NS 10.0%

By Party: Libertarian
bush* 54.8% / Kerry 11.0% / Other 34.2%

By Race: Hispanic
bush* 38.1% / Kerry 52.8%

Age: 18-24
bush* 56.0% / Kerry 35.8%

Age: 25-34
bush* 49.2% / Kerry 45.6%

Age: 35-54
Bush* 42.9% / Kerry 50.2%

Age: 55-69
bush* 55.3% / Kerry 38.6%

Age: 70+
bush* 39.7% / Kerry 50.7%

Gender Male:
bush* 50.2% / Kerry 41.9% / Other 5.1% / NS 2.8%

Gender Female:
bush* 44.7% / Kerry 49.4% / Other 1.9% / NS 4.0%

[Laelth]

15. I'm predicting a CO nail-biter: 50 Kerry, 49 Bush

Go to Laelths Election Projection for the whole scoop!

:smoke:

-Laelth

[F.Gordon]

16. 10/30/2004: The first battle is over

From the Rocky Mountain Nazis....

Bush leads Kerry 51 percent to 42 percent, apparently breaking open a race that a News poll showed statistically tied in September and close two weeks ago.

Bush now leads Kerry 44 to 41 percent among independents.

The timing of this Rocky Mountain Nazi poll was soooooo predictable.

By the time you are reading this particular daily Zogby report both sides will have the numbers from early voting. Who won? I have no idea. ;-) Just keep in mind that the republicans didn’t send people from Texas to Douglas County just to help pass out Halloween candy.

This Zogby is a real Halloween Thriller. It shows Kerry leading or tied in all regions except the south and east. It shows bush* winning 35% of African American voters, which is the first time he’s ever registered anything other than ZERO and he suddenly jumps to 35%. Yea, whatever. It also shows NO Libertarians voting for their own party, but does show bush* getting 83%. Okay. Sure. I’ll buy that. It also shows bush* leading with men AND women. :eyes: If all these numbers were accurate bush* should have a 30 point lead.

Bush* still can’t break 50% of the Independent voter, and the Lord of Darkness can’t win Colorado unless he does. The only thing that this poll shows is that the undecided are deciding. Other than that, well.... you decide..... My one concern, which wasn't a concern before, is that the 3rd Party people may be "in play". Hard to say because this is one wacky - goofy poll.

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bush* 49.9% / Kerry 44.7% / Other 3.7% / NS 1.7%

By Party: Democrat
bush* 7.6% / Kerry 87.6% / Other 3.4% / NS 1.5%

By Party: Republican
bush* 90.8% / Kerry 7.0% / Other 1.3% / NS .8%

By Party: Independent
bush* 40.2% / Kerry 47.7% / Other 8.7% / NS 3.8%

By Party: Libertarian
Bush* 83.0% / Kerry 17.0% / Other 0%

By Race: Hispanic
Bush* 42.7% / Kerry 53.3%

By Race: African American
Bush* 35.0% / Kerry 65.0%

Age: 18-24
Bush* 49.2% / Kerry 45.4%

Age: 25-34
Bush* 61.2% / Kerry 38.8%

Age: 35-54
Bush* 47.8% / Kerry 46.3%

Age: 55-69
Bush* 51.1% / Kerry 42.3%

Age: 70+
Bush* 38.5% / Kerry 52.8%

Gender Male:
bush* 48.8% / Kerry 44.5% / Other 5.0% / NS 1.7%

Gender Female:
bush* 51.0% / Kerry 44.9% / Other 2.5% / NS 1.7%

MAKE IT HAPPEN!!!!! THE 2ND BATTLE HAS BEGUN

[Chescher]

17. I am ...

Married, 35-54, Female, voting for Kerry... and all the friends I have meeting that standard feel the same way I do, except for one. But I'm working on her ;-]

[F.Gordon]

18. 10/31/2004: Your last update

We have the local grassroots base. The GOP does not. Or, as one little song bird told me today; “they are just now doing in the final few days what they should have been doing a month ago.” The GOP has been doing some heavy outsourcing from the surrounding Red States. They are in Panic Mode.

They tried to convince us that we had no chance in Colorado. They failed. They used their control of the media to try to push us away and belittle us. They failed.

We control the ground. We know the people of Colorado and we know the territory. They do not.

Zogby is now saying that Colorado is the State to watch on Election Day. If bush* can't take Colorado he is toast. I don't know about you but I'd love to listen to those freaks at Faux and CNN choke on their own vomit when they report.... Kerry takes Colorado!!

I’ll spare you all the usual “polling” details because the following is all you need to know.

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Kerry 47% / bush* 48% / Other 2% / Undecided 2%

Salazar 52% / Coors 44% / Other .4% / Undecided 4%

Bye all.
:hi:
riding donkey off into the sunset...err...snow.....

MAKE IT HAPPEN!!!!!

[ZenLefty]

20. Right on.

Thanks for posting. :D