Newer Colorado Polls Confirm Michael Bennet Leads Ken Buck

[Robb]

Sorry, hope the headline will be taken in the spirit intended. :D

Anyhow, http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/bennet-slightly-ahead.html">Public Policy Polling data from this morning:

Bennet slightly ahead

It may be a little premature to start writing Michael Bennet's political obituary...PPP's newest Colorado poll finds him holding onto a 46-45 lead over Ken Buck.

Both candidates have their party base pretty much completely locked up: Bennet is winning 85% of Democrats and Buck is winning 84% of Republicans. Bennet's slight edge comes because of something that is pretty unusual for Democratic candidates across the country this year- he's ahead 48-38 with independent voters.

Bennet's lead with independents is not because they like him- in fact they don't. His approval rating with them is a negative 37/45 spread. Rather it appears to be the price to pay for Republicans nominating a candidate with limited appeal to the center. Independents see Buck unfavorably by an even wider spread, 31/50.

A closer look at moderate voters, who comprise the majority of independents in Colorado, shows a lot of trouble for Buck. They see him negatively by greater than a 2:1 margin, 27/57. They're not real high on Bennet, giving him only a +7 approval rating at 43/36. But when it comes to the horse race they give the incumbent a 24 point lead despite their tepid feelings toward him personally because of their greater animosity toward Buck.

Yesterday we saw the old "likely voters" vs. "registered voters" polling conundrum. Bennet takes the edge with registered voters every time; FWIW, Romanoff died against Buck when looking at registered voters -- in no small part because Romanoff supporters were energized to the Nth degree, meaning they were freakin' likely with a big L. :D

Anyhow. All this really means is (a) polling is, as ever, difficult to interpret, and (b) enthusiasm will be everything.

[CanonRay]

1. This is good news

maybe I should erase my post?

[Robb]

3. Nah. Remember

...tomorrow will say something different. The joys of October. :)

[patty2828]

2. way too close

This race is way too close. Bennet is not a great candidate (thanks Ritter!) and Buck is buckin nuts! Off cycle elections are troublesome because of historical low voter turn out. The R's always do as they are told, the D's generally do their own thing and the U's love being courted.
What a mess. I say, GO NEGATIVE BIG TIME! Bennet needs to hit buck with everything but the kitchen sink.

[Democrats_win]

4. Encouraging news in the face of a trillion out of state RW TV ads.

We don't even know who's paying for these ads. I'm voting against the ads: go Bennet!

[blaze]

5. OMG!!! The ads!!!!

Back to back to back to back.... I've never seen anything like it!!!

This election will be won by sound bites. :(

Elections across the country will be won by sound bits. :(