A Ned Lamont Landslide?

[connecticut yankee]

A Ned Lamont Landslide?

by Jpol



Taking its cue from a press release that accompanied the latest Quinnipiac poll, the mainstream media is predicting a close Connecticut primary contest that could go either way. Ned Lamont holds a narrow 4-point edge over Joe Lieberman, but that falls well within the polls +/- 3.8 percentage point margin of error. Is it really that close? Careful analysis of the data suggests otherwise. In fact, Lamont may be heading for a landslide victory on August 8th.


The Quinnipiac Press Release:


July 20, 2006 - Lamont Inches Ahead Of Lieberman In Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Incumbent Still Leads In 3-Way November Match up


Anti-war Connecticut U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont has surged to a razor-thin 51 - 47 percent lead over incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today..."


"Lamont has turned what looked like a blowout into a very close Democratic primary race," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.


"Lamont is up, while Lieberman's Democratic support is dropping. More Democrats have a favorable opinion of Lamont, who was largely unknown last month, and see him as an acceptable alternative to Lieberman. But Lieberman's strength among Republicans and independents gives him the lead in a three-way match up in November."...



Just how does a narrow 4-point lead translate into an August blow-out? Read on.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_jpol_060728_a_ned_lamont_landsli.htm

[calico1]

1. I am starting to get concerned.

Did you read the NY Times article posted on another thread where a woman voter who doesn't like Lieberman says she is going to hold her nose and vote for him because he is a strong supporter of Israel? I guess they were interviewing Jewish voters in CT. From what you are seeing, how do you think this will have an effect on the turnout and how Jews in CT will end up voting? I am interested in hearing from other CT DU'ers as well. I think a lot of them might hold their nose and vote for him just because they are not sure about Lamont and concerned about the ME.

[connecticut yankee]

2. Hopefully,

there aren't too many of them.

I know a lovely Jewish couple who don't agree with most of Lieberman's stands but are voting for him because he's Jewish.

From what I read somewhere (but can't recall where), at least half of the Jewish voters are for Lamont. And they're most definitely against the war in Iraq.

Incidentally, Ned is a strong supporter of Israel, too. However, I don't think he puts Israel's interests ahead of the US, as Lieberman does.

[NewJeffCT]

3. I've seen more Lamont yard signs in West Hartford

than anywhere else. And, while it's not as heavily Jewish as it was 20 years ago, it is still has quite a concentration. (A lot of CT towns used to be known for their ethnic populations, but it is changing: West Hartford was Jewish; New Britain was Polish; Middletown was Sicilian; etc, etc)

[JerseygirlCT]

5. Yes, me too. I've seen a number in my town as well,

but noticed tons while driving though W. Htfd.

[JerseygirlCT]

4. Well, the Jewish family down the street has a

Lamont lawn sign. Only lawn sign on our block.

That's of course an anecdote, and means next to nothing. My answer honestly is that I don't know.