Simmons' Vulnerability Suggested In UConn Poll

[Larkspur]

With less name recognition, Sullivan trailing only slightly
http://www.theday.com/eng/web/news/re.aspx?re=6A363833-DFFF-4F4E-898E-C1F19FFD2E6F

Representatives of Jim Sullivan, the Democrat running against U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons, R-2nd District, were celebrating Tuesday after an independent poll showed Sullivan only narrowly trailing the incumbent, even among voters who barely knew his name.

The poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, showed Simmons with a four-point lead –– 39 percent to 35 percent –– among likely voters, despite Simmons' marked advantage in name recognition and high job-approval ratings.

Sullivan is “not only in reach” of his opponent, said UConn pollster Ken Dautrich. “He's about as well-situated as he could expect to be at this point.”

Simmons is significantly more vulnerable this year than he was in 2002, Dautrich said, when Simmons held a 15-point lead over Democrat Joe Courtney at the end of September.

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

[monarch]

1. I was polled

The first question was: "How likely are you to vote?" I told her it was "very, very, very, likely." I kind of lost confidence when she asked me who I voted for for president in 2002 but once I corrected her, she was okay. Although she asked quite a few questions, it was obvious that the poll was focussed on Simmons-Sullivan. I actually thought that it was a poll for Simmons because she asked if there was any possibility that I would change my vote. "No, no and absolutely no chance!"

[Larkspur]

2. They may have contacted me, but I wasn't home when they called

My caller-id showed a call from Telefund Inc. Was that the company that did the poll? Anyone know?

[monarch]

5. The woman who called identified herself as being from UConn

n/t

[ps1074]

3. Why there are 3 Connecticut repukes in the Congress?

And only 2 democrats?

I thought it was a solid democratic state :(

[Larkspur]

4. Nancy Johnson's and Chris Shay's districts lean Republican

and Nancy Johnson's seat gained voters when Maloney's district was wiped out due to Census changes. I'm not sure if Shays picked up some of Maloney's district as well.

My district, #2, which covers most of eastern CT, leans Democrat, but in 2000, Simmons (R) defeated 20 year incumbant Gedjedsen, who had grown distant from the districts voters. Gedjedsen had divorced and actually lived in Fairfield county, which is next to New York City, with his new wife, but he still claimed his family's farm in Bozrah, CT, which is in district #2, as his residence.

Gedjedsen also hired a Washington pro to run his campaign and the pro hadn't a clue about the people in the 2nd district. In contrast, Simmons was funded and energized by a rising Republican Party. Gedjedsen had nearly lost his last 2 re-election bids to another Republican, and the Republicans thought that Gedjedsen would be more vunerable to Simmons. They were right.

[NewJeffCT]

6. Long story

Somebody else posted a better response than mine, but here is my take - Chris Shays' district is one of the wealthiest in the country and has traditionally had moderate Rockefeller Republicans representing it. Before Shays, it was Stu McKinney (who died of AIDS complications), who was maybe more liberal than Shays.

The woman running against him (Diane Farrell?) seems to be pretty aggressive, though. I think she may have a shot, as I was shocked that a Democrat could win in posh Westport. I have no clue what the polls show, though, as I live in the 2nd District.

Before Simmons, the 2nd district had Sam Gejdensen for years. However, Sam took the district for granted and was labeled out of touch by his opponents for years. The district is pretty Democratic, but more moderate than the pretty liberal Gejdensen. Unfortunately, he never really got the wake up call in 2 or 3 close races with Ed Munster, including a nationally covered 2 vote victory, and lost to the hungrier & more aggressive Simmons.

Nancy Johnson has done a good job at deceiving voters in her district that she is a moderate Republican, though she is actually the most conservative in the state. She has been in office a long time. When the 2000 census cut our state from 6 seats in Congress to 5, she had a runoff with Democrat Jim Maloney and beat him. I think (not 100% sure) that Maloney got some bad press for a debate, as he is a big bear of a man, while Johnson is a petite woman and it looked to some like he was trying to intimidate her. I think I recall that story.

It would take a miracle (or major scandal) to unseat the two Democrats - Larson & DeLauro.

[Tangledog]

7. I remember Johnson/Maloney

I've seen some pretty mean television-ad battles in my time, but that was a foul campaign. I couldn't walk slow past the television without hearing the negative ads through my gold teeth. (XXL tinfoil, please :).)

The district looks like a lobster claw. Nobody else wanted poor beat-up Meriden, so it ended up with Litchfield County. It's about the only part of our map that looks out of whack.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

9. Westport is fairly Liberal as is Fairfield.

Gore got 59% of the Westport Vote to Bushler's 38% in 2000!

[Moderator]

8. Larkspur

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