Oregon Mail-in Ballots & Hand-Recount System vs. New York Lever System: 2000-2008 (TIA) - x

[tiptoe]

Full Article

Oregon Mail-in Ballots & Hand-Recount System  vs.  New York Lever System: 2000-2008

TruthIsAll     source: richardcharnin.com/OregonVsNYVoting.htm

March 29, 2010

Oregon defied the many battleground and heavily Democratic states in which Bush increased recorded vote share from 2000. Oregon's 13.6% exit poll discrepancy in 1992 and 10.2% uncounted vote rate in 1996 may have had something to do with the 1998 decision to switch to mail-in ballots. Oregon’s recorded vote-count shares closely approximated the National True Vote in 2000, 2004 and 2008. Was it because the voting-and-recounts were done exclusively by mail-and-hand and not by machine?

 

2004

 

2004

 

2000

 

2004

'Battleground state' OREGON

OR PHONE SURVEY Share (±3.2% MoE)

Kerry
52.2

Bush
46.3

 
 

Margin
+5.9

 
 

 

OR VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
51.35

Bush
47.19

 
 

Margin
+4.16

Swing
 

Gore
46.96

Bush
46.52

Nader
5.04

 
+0.44

+3.7%
 

 

 DISCREPANCY (%)

 Margin Δ

PhoneSurvey - VoteCount

+1.74%

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

< MoE

Oregon Voting System Advantages

• Vote exclusively by mail-in ballots: '04=86.5% '08=85.7%
  
• Each general election: post-election handcount of random-selected precincts
  
• Partial/full hand-recounts check optical scanner tallies
  
• "No recount conducted in Oregon has ever turned up evidence that a tally machine failed to correctly count votes. A full recount is the ultimate test and with each election we always have at least one or two."

Oregon Facts:

• Gore 2000:
  .44% OR VoteCount margin VERY NEAR .52% National
  
• Kerry 2004:
  4.2% OR VoteCount margin was a NEAR MATCH to 5% unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate. Compare to Kerry -2.5% National Recorded Vote-Count margin deficit
  
• Obama 2008:
  56.7% OR VoteCount share a NEAR MATCH to 57.1% OR TrueVote model. Compare 52.9% National Recorded share vs his 58.0% National TrueVote model

 

Solid 'Democratic state' NEW YORK

NY EXIT POLL Share (± 2-3% MoE)

Kerry
64.5

Bush
34.0

 
 

Margin
+30.5

 
 

 

NY VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
58.37

Bush
40.08

Nader
1.35

Margin
+18.29

Swing
 

Gore
60.21

Bush
35.23

Nader
3.58

 
+24.98

-6.7%
 

 

 DISCREPANCY ( WPD ) (%)

 Margin Δ

ExitPoll - VoteCount

+12.2 %

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

>2 x MoE

New York Voting System Vulnerabilities:

• Defective levers in the most democratic precincts – undercount votes
  
• Too few levers in Democratic precincts – long lines
  
• Pre-set levers stuck on Bush – discourage voters
  
• Late provisional and absentee paper ballots not counted on Election Day
  
• Lever totals input to PROGRAMMABLE central tabulators
  
• No hand recounts – there are no paper ballots to count (except for late votes)

New York Facts:

• 2000-2008:
  Democratic late (paper ballot) vote-share 7% higher than E-Day (lever) and matched the unadjusted exit polls
  
• Gore 2000:
  25% recorded marg (60-35%)– 2% exitpoll discrepancy
  
• Kerry 2004:
  18% recorded marg (58-40%)–12% exitpoll discrepancy
  
• Obama 2008:
  27% recorded marg (63-36%)–exit polls not released

 

NATIONAL  Exit Polls  &  Recorded Vote-Counts –  Prelim NEPs  vs  Final NEPs

PRELIM NEP, 13K Random Selection  .86% MoE

Kerry
 50.8 

Bush
48.2

Nader
1.0

Margin
+2.6

 

Final NEP – IMPOSSIBLE  forced match of VoteCount

Kerry
48

Bush
51

 
 

Margin
-3.0

 

Recorded VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
48.27

Bush
50.73

Nader
0.38

Margin
-2.46

Swing
 

Gore
48.38

Bush
47.87

Nader
2.73

 
+0.52

-3.0%
 

 

 

 DISCREPANCY (%)

 Margin Δ

 

12:22a Prelim NEP - VoteCount

+5.1 %

 

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

3 x MoE

• If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of
   returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible.
• Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count,
   then the official national Recorded VOTE-COUNT must also be impossible.
• Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs
   must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count.

As a battleground state, it is to be expected that Oregon closely matches the national electorate. Since it votes 100% by mail, and paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%) exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote-counts, we can hypothesize that Oregon closely approximates the True Vote.  This is confirmed by the following facts:
...
Now consider New York.

In 2000, Gore won the state by 25% (60.2–35.2%). In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote-count margin declined to 18.3% (58.4–40.1%). But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64.5–34.0%, a 12.2% WPD. Why the sharp reversal of fortune?

Consider the largest counties in Oregon and New York, Multnomah (OR) and Kings (NY):

Gore won Kings Cty (Brooklyn)

by 74.7–15.0%.  Kerry won it by 74.2–22.8%, an  8.3% LOWER margin.

Gore won Multnomah

by 63.5–28.2%.  Kerry won it by 71.6–27.4%, an  8.9% HIGHER margin.

It’s an Urban Legend: Bush recorded vote share increased sharply from 2000 to 2004 in heavily Democratic urban areas but declined in rural locations. Except for Oregon — the ONLY 100% mail-in paper ballot and hand-recount state.

Consider that ...
  1)  Oregon votes by mail and NY by lever machines
  2)  In the last three elections, the late NY Democratic (paper ballot) vote shares were 7% higher than the Election Day lever share
...

  8)

Oregon paper ballots are available for hand recounts (see 254.525, 258.211, comments).
New York votes are cast on levers, but counted on computers; there is no way to verify them.

...

Oregon mail-in ballots are counted electronically, but there is a paper trail if a hand recount is necessary. In New York, computers also do the counting based on reported Lever totals—but there are no paper ballots to check the count
...
Full Article

 

[tiptoe]

1. OR VoteSystem: Mail-in Ballot, Centr Reg separate from County TallySystems, Hand recounts of tallies

...
Being an all Vote-By-Mail state, Oregon has many differences from Colorado in our vote tally process.
Colorado uses vote centers and precincts in a distributed vote and tally process.
Oregon utilizes a centralized vote tally process with all votes received and tallied at County Elections Offices (36).

This centralized practice allows for much greater control of the tally process.
• For example, each ballot envelope received by the County Elections Officials is scanned, signature verified and then accepted for counting. This process is done using Oregon's Centralized Voter Registration System. (Vote-by-Mail video)

This system is completely separate from the vote tally systems used in Oregon Counties.
It provides a cross reference in that the number of ballots received and accepted for counting equals the number of ballots counted by the tally systems.

• In addition local election officials are required by statute (ORS 254.235) to perform logic and accuracy testing prior to each election and after the counting is done.

254.525 Test of vote tally system. If a vote tally system is used, the county clerk shall repeat the public certification test described under ORS 254.235 (1) for the vote tally system used to conduct the election. The test shall be conducted after all the ballots are tallied but before the final results of the election are certified or before the vote tally system is shut down. The test may be observed by persons described in ORS 254.235(2). The county clerk shall certify the results of the test. <1979 c.190 §274; 1993 c.713 §36; 1999 c.410 §61; 2001 c.965 §24; 2007 c.154 §47>

• In addition, as you know, the Legislature adopted a new law that takes affect this year that requires for each general election a post-election handcount of select precincts. These will be conducted in addition, of course, to the normal routine recounts we do in Oregon, because each election inevitably includes a few close races.

I must reiterate here an important fact. No recount conducted in Oregon has ever turned up evidence that a tally machine failed to correctly count votes. A full recount is the ultimate test and with each election we always have at least one or two.

John Lindback, Director
Elections Division
Oregon Secretary of State's Office

source: http://www.oregonvrc.org/2008/02/192007_johns_reply_oregons_election_systems_decertified_colorado

 

[Bluenorthwest]

2. They say 'vote by mail' and you can, but personally, here in OR

I love to take our ballots directly to the elections office, which is very nearby. This is my idea of fun. Into the drop box they go, neat and tidy...