Can Rick Crawford beat Phil Gingrey?

[flaminbats]

If a poll was done only on the positions of Rick Crawford and Phil Gingrey, it seems clear that the voters of the 11th district would elect Crawford by a 2-1 margin. But unfortunately elections cannot be won on issues alone. Rick Crawford must raise money to run ads, he must campaign actively to increase his name recognition, and target undecided voters who are not in favor of the incumbent.

Finding the right issues to get the right votes is often a hard thing to do. Minorities make up around a fifth of the voters in this district, while whites make up the rest. Minority turnout among men and women is lower in midterm elections, which probably helped Phil Gingrey in 2002. One question is how can Crawford increase his support among swing voters? The answer could be written in the past...in 2002 the Democrat won the majority of white women in the 11th, but Gingrey won a landslide among the white men. The two factors that helped Gingrey was a low turnout among all minorities and winning a larger percent of the white women than he lost of the white men.

I'm not advocating race baiting. What I am suggesting is that Crawford can win by using the right issues to form a solid base among male and female minorities and female whites. It is usually true that women are more interested in pocketbook issues, while conservative southern males are most driven by the social issues. So when addressing issues of health insurance, education, and the cost of living it is best to address this to a room full of soccer moms rather than a room full of rednecks.

I also believe that having a Congressional voting record will make Gingrey a sitting duck in November. Crawford will have a mobilized base because of opposition to Bush and the incumbent Congressman. But in order to win he must also win swing voters who shall be supporting Bush this November, and this will be his most difficult challenge!

<http://www.rickcrawford.org/issues.html>

[RebelOne]

1. I would vote for Crawford if I could, but

unfortunately Cherokee County, where I live, is not in the 11th district.

[flaminbats]

2. You must feel fortunate...

to have the opportunity to choose between cutthroats like Bill Stephens or Bubba MacDonald. You can even vote for John Linder for Congress, or not vote at all for Congress. Wouldn't it be nice to again have a two-party system in Georgia? ;)