Democrat Files to Challenge Rep. Broun in Georgia’s 10th

[CottonBear]

Link to babylonsister's GDP thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3454661&mesg_id=3454661

edit: Paul Broun, Jr., a local Athens, GA family physician and son of long-time Democratic state senator Paul Broun, Sr., was recently elected congressman for the 10th district after a special election following Charlie Norwood's death. He'll;l have to immediately start campaigning again because the next regular election is in 2008. We're hoping a Democrat can win. Broun, a very conservative Republican, beat and even more far right Republican int he runoff election.

Cross your fingers boys and girls! It's going to be a thrill packed election here in district 10!

[Hosnon]

1. The Democrats in the 10th should definitely mount a challenge. Strategically,

they have played this very well. The only thing that would make their chances better is if the next election was midterm.

Best case scenario: Someone similar in standing to Whitehead also challenges Broun. Pragmatic Republicans will tend to vote for the incumbent while Columbia County Republicans pissed off over the results of the special election will tend to vote for Whitehead's "replacement". As a result, the Republicans will be more evenly split in 08 than they were in the special election.

If that scenario develops, I predict Broun will get between 30% and 40%, the other Republican will get between 25% and 35%, and the Democrat will get between 30% and 40%.

In effect, the election will be a redux of the special election. But, due to Broun's weakness among Augusta Republicans, he will do worse than Whitehead but better than himself (in the first round). It will still be a close fight for the Democrat but it will be his or her best shot in a long, long time.

I'll predict it here: If we have a strong candidate, i.e., a moderate, if the Republican establishment does not back Broun fully, i.e., a strong Republican challenger emerges, and if the Democratic nominee for President appeals to moderates, e.g., Edwards, then the Democrats will win control of the 10th Congressional District.

[CottonBear]

2. That's a good analysis of the situation.

What we Democrats need is a huge turnout. The new voter ID law (if upheld) may squash a good bit of the turnout among the elderly, poor and minorities. I am always disappointed in voter turnout. Only about 16% of voters turned out for the recent special election.

[Hosnon]

3. Do you know how coordinated the GOTV campaign in the 10th is?

It really doesn't matter how many Democrats vote...only that the proportion remains the same. If Republicans GOTV and we don't, we're screwed. However, if neither does or both do, we will have a great shot.

[CottonBear]

4. A friend of mine organized a GOTV campaign for the 2006 election.

The Athens-Clarke County Democratic Committee is composed of more moderate people than the pure GOTV campaigners. We need many groups working together to overcome what will be a big Republican turnout in the 10th distirct. You've gotta know that the statte GOP is smarting over Whiteheads spectacular flameout. He refuised to attend any debates until after he got into the runoff. What a coward he was! Broun simply out campaigned him the old fashioned way: going door to door, shaking hands, attending picnics and events, holding babies and distributing about a million yard signs.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Voter ID law between now and 2008.

http://www.clarkedemocrats.com/index.html