Tropical Storm Jova - tracking Sept. 15th 2005

[Quetzal]

Might I add that this little critter was a tropical depression yesterday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP10/refresh/EP1005W5_sm2+gif/204639W_sm.gif

Even though it is a tropical storm, it wouldn't hurt to make sure you have your supplies ready just in case.

More info:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/152049.shtml?

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152049
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

JOVA HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 24 HR...WITH AN INCREASE IN
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS LIKELY A DIURNAL
DECREASE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
55 KT.

JOVA IS MOVING TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY...260/13. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR 36-48 HR. AFTER THAT...A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED
AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FASTER. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU.

JOVA IS OVER 28C WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT.
THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR 48-72 HR. THE GFDN
BRING THE STORM TO 121 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR 90 KT
IN 48 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THIS...CALLING FOR 80 KT IN 72 HR...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
THE SHIPS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...JOVA SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN. THE NOGAPS AND GFS
SUGGEST THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR THAN INDICATED IN
THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IF THAT HAPPENS JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

Hopefully the cold water off the coast of the Big Island will weaken it.

[xray s]

1. don't they name them alphabetically anymore?

[oregonjen]

2. It's in the Pacific Ocean, not Atlantic, so naming them is different

Pacific is typhoon, Atlantic is hurricane

Right?

[Quetzal]

3. technically yes

but the local Hawaii meteorologists always use the term "hurricane" instead of "typhoon". Yet when they are referring to Asian storms, they use typhoon.

[Quetzal]

4. KGMB update

Tropical Storms Head Toward State

As Hurricane Ophelia skirts the Carolina coast, other disturbances brew closer to home. Two tropical storms in the east Pacific are moving toward Hawaii.

Tropical storm Jova has winds of 63 mph and is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Although it will enter cooler water by Monday and begin to weaken, Jova is forecast to track northwest toward the state and could possibly move in by the middle to end of next week.

Tropical storm Kenneth has winds of 58 mph and is also expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Like Jova, it will move into cooler water by Monday and begin to weaken back down to tropical storm strength. Kenneth's track is forecast to follow Jova, so it also bears watching.

http://kgmb9.com/kgmb/display.cfm?storyID=5918

[oasis]

5. Thanks for the info.