NBC5/Sun-TImes Blago has 30 point lead over Judy!!!

[wndycty]

This is from the Chicago Sun-Times/NBC5 poll, the S-T won't publish their Governor's race results until tomorrow however Carol Marin hosted a live "City Desk" on NBC5 this morning with Scott Fornek of the Sun-Times and Paul Green from Roosevelt University. I'm not sure if NBC5 will make CIty Desk available online.

Governor
Blagojevich 56%
Topinka 26%
Whitney 3%
Undecided 15%

Who would do a better job eliminating corruption
Blagojevich 44%
Topinka 27%
Whitney 3%

Poll taken September 10-12

[mucifer]

1. Dammmmnnn!

:bounce:


Now if Blago could just get the guts to raise taxes.

Are there any new polls out on Duckworth and Seals?
I was volunteering on Seals campain and he seems to have lots of momentum right now.

[davsand]

2. Were they polling only Cook and the Collar counties?

Do you know who they polled and what the MOE was? If they were polling only north of I-80 then I could see those kind of numbers as being just about the norm. If it was statewide, however, THAT is huge...

I honestly expect Blag to win, but I really expect the majority of his votes to be coming from the metro area rather than downstate.

Something that DOES come to mind with that polling data is also a question of coat tails. If Blag is polling THAT strong statewide are there coat tails for the lower end of the ticket?

Opens up a bunch of questions for me about this local State Senate race we are working. Recently there was a discussion on the local GOP board about Watson standing up in a press conference and saying that the polling data for the GOP candidate (not an incumbent, in spite of her use of the title Senator Meyers) is "so good" "...that it’s possible that some of the resources being spent in Champaign and Vermilion counties could be shipped to another race where they could be more productive."

They also reported that as soon as Watson said it, ..."you could see he regretted it..."

Well, DUH!

Article and local GOP discussion here:

http://www.illinipundit.com/2006/09/13/kacich-on-myers-frerichs/#comments


The demographic down here is split. I really do not see any situation where either candidate could declare it a free ride, nor do I see any sane reason why ANYBODY would announce publicly they were gonna back off support for a candidate the state party had invested in. You can quietly ship people off to races that could be favorably impacted by more operatives, but you NEVER announce that kind of stuff...

At first I assumed it was "foot in mouth" disease, and something to be taken as a smoke screen but now I'm wondering if polling data statewide really IS that skewed away from the IL GOP.

Wow.


Laura

[wndycty]

3. I'm thinking so . . .

Rich Miller on Capitol Fax is criticizing the poll for only looking at 400 people, which he says is only appropriate for state house races.

[davsand]

4. That DOES seem a pretty small sample.

I have always been kind of skeptical of polls anyhow--maybe because I just not intelligent enough to grasp when "statistical significance" actually occurs--but that DOES sound like a pretty small sample for a statewide race like Blag's--ya know?

I will also say that it seems like polling can have a really BIG impact on a race if the numbers are cited and they indicate some kind of trend. People WANT to back a winner, and if you can just say you are winning it can boost your numbers in some cases. Fund raising reports/D2 filings can have a similar impact, I've noticed.

Say it often enough and the voters will think it is truth--the current regime in the WhiteHouse has demonstrated THAT often enough. Maybe the Dems need to start using that tactic too...

Regards!


Laura

[wndycty]

5. I just found out it was statewide. . .

Here are some video links:

http://www.nbc5.com/news/9869507/detail.html#

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kac8sVByYlg

[FrancesPete]

6. I don't think it was statewide

The last paragraph of the NBC5 article says: "Operators used random digit-dialing to gather a random sample of 400 city voters." If the numbers are from Chicago voters only, I'm not at all surprised. But 400 as a sample is way too small to be taken too seriously, whether it was Chicago or statewide. Even Blago's own poll numbers put him ahead at only 16 points (Topinka's poll numbers put her at only 7-8 behind).

[kevsand]

7. The Sun-Times article uses almost the same language

to describe the poll, but references only the Daley/mayoral race, leaving open the possibility that the governor's race may have involved a larger, statewide number.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-poll17s1.html

[wndycty]

8. Well in the YouTube video clip Carol Marin says statewide

:kick:

[kevsand]

9. Sun-Times article on governor poll finally online here:

http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-poll18.html

"The Chicago Sun-Times/ NBC5 Poll, conducted by KRC/ Communications Research, is based on a random statewide sample of 400 likely voters."

[newyawker99]

10. Hi FrancesPete!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: