Am I correct, are three GOP districts at risk?

[salin]

Sodrel, Hostettler and Chocola? I have heard murmers about all three of these races. Probably too much to ask for - but wouldn't it be something if all three were lost.... then with Carson and Visclosky it would be a 5-4 dem maj in the hoosier House delegation. Were that to happen - either pigs would be flying - or it would be a huge symbol of a serious historical shift across the country.

[thinkingwoman]

1. If pigs are flying

I'm all for it!!

Actually, I'd about fall over dead if Hostettler was finally unseated. He's not my rep anymore thankfully, but he's still the state shame.

[salin]

2. I've been hearing the loudest murmers

about his reelection problems that I have heard since he successfully bounced Frank. Then again I was out of state for several reelections - but certainly the most bzzz since the 2000 election cycle.

I used to be stuck with his representation as well. Funny thing, I can't recall him coming to b-ton much when he was its representative.

[thinkingwoman]

3. How could he come to B-ton...

there's no direct highway from Evansville don't you know? :evilgrin:

edited to remove a stray "t"

[salin]

4. and he might have to drive or cross...

the bit of road that now bears the name of Frank.

[izzybeans]

5. Hostettler has been at risk since day 1, and he almost loses via

a purely grassroots campaign on behalf of whatever Dem happens to be running. At least this time they didn't fly somebody in to run against him. I think he goes down this time around. Ellsworth is too much of a "hunk" not to get the fickle vote, which is the one that matters most down there. Too many entrenched divisions. He will win by igniting a fire under the apathetic, which is the majority of that district.

[salin]

6. So it really is a seriously

in danger of flipping seat? I think Sodrel is exceptionally vulnerable. Not sure about Chocola up north.

[izzybeans]

7. They thought they were going to win last election

because Hostettler was losing going into the late evening, but some time during the late evening the vote count flipped in his favor as the final precincts were reported (my mother was hosting a party with the state rep. from our hometown and they all went home thinking they had won the damn thing). He won by a few percentage points. And this was with a carpetbagger running; a no-no in that district. Ellsworth will have a battle on his hands. However, if the DNC is true to their word, which I doubt, he could win. I know the dems. have felt abandoned down there for quite some time. My hometown doesn't even elect republicans in local elections, but when it comes to national elections they elect republicans frequently-a statewide trend. This has to do with the fact that the DNC and the state party in general are absent on the local level, though they harbor illusions that they are "grassroots" oriented. The county organizations run things and people trust them heavily. I don't see why that couldn't be easily translated into a federal victory with a real committement from the state and federal parties. If the candidates had working relationships with the local party affiliates, rather than a quick love em and leave em campaign stump event, then they'd build quite a solid base down there for the federal election cycle over the long term; all that is needed in the short term is a push over the hill top. Retire Hostettler to Rose-Hulman.

Of course the right-to-life folks are quite vocal, and Hostettler is their baby, so they will fight dirty all the way and continuously. This state is a fundamentalist hotbed and that will always be a point of contention. If they want to do battle with these folks and win out over the fear mongering of the RNC, they will do well by putting in consistent face time with local party leaders and actually get to know the district, building interpersonal trust, rather than relying on name recognition. The DNC has a bad reputation, unfairly, but they do themselves no justice by remaining aloof.

The only thing that will convince a scared ruralite, afraid of a boogeyman they will never see, that the DNC can be trusted with their security is to stare that fear in the face and promise them they will be kept safe. They'll be more likely to listen to whatever comes next. Build trust first then persuade. Don't stand on the podium and stump, it will all sound like platitudes otherwise.

[democraticinsurgent]

23. a little suspicious, that late night flip

this is exactly what happened with Kerry and several close Senate races. Dems ahead until late at night, when suddenly it flips.

Sounds more like hanky-panky than real votes.

[INdemo]

9. I agree

also Chocola is at risk,and he's the one that Bush campaigned for and attended his fundraiser.....Souder(3rd District),for the first time in several elections has a very strong contender..Gotta read a article in the Indy star today>Daniels making changes too fast,bush loosing popularity
And this is happening in the red state of Indiana.gotta love it

[salin]

10. do you have a link to that article?

sounds like something 'refreshing' to read in the star.

[INdemo]

12. Interesting article

In GD there is a post and link "Bush loosing support among Hoosiers".(I could not get my posted link to work?}
and go to INDY's home page and read the front page article Daniels moving too fast for IN
On the congressional races go to http://www.dccc.org/ and read comments about the Indiana races...

[salin]

13. Encouraging to read those bios

With both Mitch and W being a drag with voters - this is going to be quite an election cycle.

[smurfygirl]

8. Rumor has it that the 9th distrisct has had enough

of Sodrel. The conservatives are in a tiff about this port deal, apparently, Sodrel is in bed with the deal and defended it from day one.
We will see....after all rumors aren't conclusive.

[salin]

11. In Nov/Dec Sodrel sent a splashy ad for Medicare plan D

all glitz and "all helpful" - as if he thought this was going to the older population, who of course (in the crazy GOP pol mind) would be greatful, to tie their gratitude to him, the caring - compassionate congressman.

Then the Plan was rolled out and has been an unmitigated disaster for many.

So foolish of them (Sodrel and his campaign) to spend so much $$ on that flyer, only to have it blow up in their faces.

[Corey_Baker08]

14. House District 33 Is looking Vulnerable

In 2004 Ron Liggett(D) was the incumbent and lost a very close race to the current incumbent Bill Davis(R) Ron Liggett recently kicked off his campaign with great momentum and it seems that he may regain his seat in a close race if it is anything like 2004

Indiana House District 33 contains all of Jay County and the northern half of Randolph County; portions of Center and Union townships as well as all of Delaware, Liberty, Niles and Perry townships in eastern Delaware County.

[salin]

15. Interesting how extreme the state house repubs

suddenly became once it became vogue in DC (extremist social theocracy type legislation). It has only been the house being split, or dem run that held them in check. It would be great if the house flipped back to dem control. I would guess that Mitch's unpopularity, and repubs falling in line behind unpopular moves would benefit close races such as the one you describe. Good luck to Ron Liggett!

[INdemo]

16. add to that list

the 3rd district and the 5th..We have a very strong candidate running against Souder in the 3rd and as for the 5th district it can be won with a stong candidate..The voting records alone is enough to defeat the Repubs.
However our State Party Leaders need to get off their duff and actually do something this election instead of just going through the motions.

[salin]

17. It would be great to see some of these folks

be retired from elective politics. We have one of the most embarassing congressional delegations.

[LostInAnomie]

18. Hostettler is safe.

There are too many fundies in this area that turn out for him and will stoop to any measure to get him elected. He will always win by his 3-5%.

The only thing that I can see making a difference is that Elsworth is very popular in Evansville which may offset some of the rabid fundy votes in the smaller towns.

[DrGonzoLives]

19. Hostettler won last time

because Jennings did not respond effectively to the poorly animated "Massachusetts" ads that the RCCC rolled out for Hostettler. You vastly underestimate the people of this district if you think that the fundie vote overshadows all here.

If the Ellsworth campaign can win over some moderates as well as generate higher turnout, Hostettler does not stand a chance. He can't campaign worth shit.

[LostInAnomie]

20. Jennings lost because he was a carpetbagger.

There was no way around it. Although other factors came into play (like *'s coat tails that brought in a ton of Repuke voters), but he was a carpetbagger and the 8th knew it.

As for fundies not overshadowing the vote you must be living in a different 8th than I am. They own the 8th district and they will do anything to keep their fellow fundy in office. It may be different in Evansville and Terre Haute but in between the fundies and bible thumpers rule.

I will party all night if Elsworth can pull it off, but I'm not going to hold my breath. I say Hostettler by 2%.

[izzybeans]

21. It's known as the bloody eight and Hostettler had to beat

dem to get into this position. All hope is not lost.

[LostInAnomie]

22. Yeah he came in during Newt's revolution in the '90's...

... with the promise that he would only serve one term. After he was elected though he managed to forget that promise.

[INdemo]

24. Winning the third district and possibly the fifth district..

is not out of the question. Tom Hayhurst is the likely challenger and would be a strong candidate in the third. In the fifth there are now 4 candidates for the primary and its possible a well organized campaign could unseat Dan Burton..Only 39% Hoosiers approve of Dubya and that could spill over into the congressional races.

[salin]

25. The day Illeglitimate watermelon Dan is bounced

from the House - will be a day to celebrate. I have been under the impression that his district is to the right of Bush - and thus haven't paid attention... will have to start paying attention to Hayhurst.