Chocola trailing Donnelly in 2 polls

[democraticinsurgent]

(July 24, 2006 -- 10:41 PM EST //)

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/009168.php

(thanks to Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo)

... last week a poll came out showing Chocola trailing his rematch challenger, Democrat Joe Donnelly, by a margin of 48% to 38%. But it was a poll commissioned by the Donnelly campaign by Cooper & Secrest, a Democratic polling firm. There's no one who'd like to see Chocola reap the rich reward of his years of bamboozlement more than I would. But Chocola's managed to hold on by relatively decent margins in the last couple cycles (54% to Donnelly's 44% in 2004). So I figured I'd believe it when I saw it. That is, when an independent pollster produced numbers anything like that.

Over the weekend pollster Delair Ali of Research 2000 took another sounding on behalf of the South Bend Tribune and he came up with Donnelly 46% to Chocola's 41%.

The sample size was relatively small -- 400 likely voters. So the margin of error is 5%.

But I think we can take this as a rough confirmation of Cooper & Secrest's earlier results. Not as extreme maybe. Five percentage points rather than ten. But if the challenger's got a 5% edge in mid-July, Chocola's in serious, serious trouble.


-- Josh Marshal

[LisaLynne]

1. Not to gloat and I know there is a long way to go, but ...

Bwahahahahaaa!!!!

When the South Bend Tribune reported about the first poll, they of course had to go on and on about how Donnelly's campaign had paid for the poll, etc. etc and how THEY were going to conduct their OWN poll. Yeah, guys, whatever. People all over the country are becoming less willing to put up with Bush rubber-stampers and Chocola is nothing but. Also, he just tried to make a big deal out of how Donnelly had paid his taxes late, but Donnelly is a small business owner and paid everything he owed along with the penalties. I think that's just going to backfire on rich pants Chocola. In this economy, a lot more people can relate to someone who pays their taxes late than someone like Chocola. Highlighting the differences in finances is only going to hurt Chocola.

I'm really sort of guardedly excited abotu these poll numbers.

[democraticinsurgent]

2. Indiana could turn 3 House seats blue

Districts 2, 8 and 9 are all in play and I'm optimistic too. Just hope that we don't get diebolded.

rick

[cascadiance]

3. Yes, Chocola's continually the "Devil's Disciple"...

He's a "rubber stamper" of "The Omen" in office now. He himself had a black dog as a kid that was named Onyx... How do I know that? Ask him sometime if you don't believe me. I used to live next door to him for a short time when he was a kid in Michigan.

[Sadie5]

4. Didn't Bush pay a visit

in Chocola's honor earlier this year? Didn't help much if he did.