8th Dist poll shows race is "even"

[democraticinsurgent]

Associated Press
Republican U.S. Rep. John Hostettler and Democrat Brad Ellsworth are running about even in the race for the southern Indiana’s 8th District congressional seat, according to a new poll.

The poll results released Wednesday night by Indianapolis television station WISH found 44 percent of those interviewed supported Ellsworth and 40 percent backed Hostettler. The difference was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Sixteen percent were undecided.

The 8th District race is being watched closely by both sides as Republicans work to keep their majority in the House.

The poll also showed strong support among independents for Ellsworth, who is sheriff of Vanderburgh County. Fifty-two percent of those who identified themselves as independent said they would vote for Ellsworth if the election were held today.

The telephone poll of 400 likely voters was conducted Sept. 5-8 by Maryland-based Research 2000.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060914/NEWS02/60914004

[democraticinsurgent]

1. And now for the analysis

This is a disastrous poll for incumbent Hostetler, who is mired at 40% with 16% undecided in a district he's served for several terms.

Moreover, the poll isn't "even", Ellsworth has a 4% lead, albeit with a 5% MOE. Something tells me that if the results were reversed, the Star would have led with "Hostetler maintains small lead" or something like that.

Conclusion: this race is Ellsworth's to lose. He's drawing well from independents and Hostetler is well below 50%.

Let's all hope for a relatively fair election.

[LostInAnomie]

2. What kind of poll has a 5 point MoE?

The race is going to come down to the Evansville turnout. The rest of the district is split about 50-50. The polls might not show it but Hostettler's base always turns out. If E-ville goes about 65-35 for Ellsworth with a decent turnout he'll win in a walk.