Indiana's Senate seat to return to GOP, per Nate Silver

[IndianaGreen]

August 25, 2010, 12:45 pm

New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats

By NATE SILVER

The Democratic majority is in increasing jeopardy in the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecasting model. The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them.

In addition, there is an 11 percent chance that Democrats will lose a total of nine seats, which would leave them with 50 votes, making them vulnerable to a defection to the Republican Party by a centrist like Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut or Ben Nelson of Nebraska. On average, over the model’s 100,000 simulation runs, the Democrats are projected to lose a net of six and a half Senate seats, which would leave them with 52 or 53 senators. (Even though the G.O.P. primary in Alaska remains too close to call, that outcome is unlikely to alter the model.)

The forecasts are based on a program designed to evaluate current polling and demographic data, and to compare these present-day conditions to outcomes in United States Senate races over the past six election cycles. For instance, in recent cycles, a Senate candidate with a 7-point lead in the polls 10 weeks before the election won about 80 percent of the time, and a candidate with a 12-point lead won about 95 percent of the time. Although the model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate elections in 2008, is not quite this cut-and-dried, it is this recent track record that forms the backbone of its projections.

Of late, the source of the Democrats’ problems has not necessarily been in high-profile Senate races where the Republicans have nominated inexperienced but headline-grabbing candidates, like Sharron Angle in Nevada and Rand Paul in Kentucky (although the model regards both Ms. Angle and Mr. Paul as slight favorites). Instead, it has been in traditional swing states like Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The last time the Democratic nominee in Ohio, Lee Fisher, held the lead in any state poll, for example, was in June. Representative Joe Sestak, the Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania, has not led any poll there since May, and Robin Carnahan of Missouri has not held a lead since January. The Democratic nominee in New Hampshire, Representative Paul W. Hodes, has not led in any of 17 public polls in New Hampshire against his likely Republican opponent, Kelly Ayotte.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/

Map:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate

[Chipper Chat]

1. Dan Coats is a most disgusting scumbag.

But the dem Ellsworth I feel is republican-lite and may be another 'lieberman.' I'm not excited about voting this fall.

[IndianaGreen]

2. Ellsworth is opposed to abortion rights and LGBT rights

Ellsworth supports DADT and DOMA.

I am skipping the Senate race this year when I vote. We are going to be hard pressed just to reelect Andre Carson.

[AngryOldDem]

3. After a lot of thought....

...I'm skipping this race too. I can't bring myself to vote for either Coats or Ellsworth. So I've decided to listen to my conscience for once.

[Chipper Chat]

5. Thanks Evan!

:nopity:

[indypaul]

4. Once again

Failing to vote in a race only adds value to a vote
for ones opponent. For example, how about voting only
in the Senate race and failing to vote in the House race.
Would that help Carson? No one candidate could possibly
support every wish or desire of each voter. Remember
politics is "the art of compromise." Aiding the election
of Dan Coats is just unthinkable to this "angrier old Democrat."
And while I do not see eye to eye with everything Carson does I
will certainly vote for him and accept the fact his service will
at least coincide with most of my wishes but I do not expect he
will fulfill everything I might wish he would. Another more
important issue is keeping control in the Indiana House since
this will be the year of reapportionment. Does every member of
the Indiana House fulfill every desire of each voter? Hell no.
But that does not lessen the importance of keeping control of
that body. As I have mentioned in the past as a Democrat I will
certainly vote in both the Senate and House races to do otherwise
would, in my opinion, add value to a vote for Dan Coats. That,
as a Democrat, I will not do. And strongly urge others, irrespective
of their personal issues, to vote for the Democratic candidate.

[AngryOldDem]

6. I can't vote for Ellsworth. Period.

I don't care what letter of the alphabet comes after his name. Maybe the party should wake up and begin nominating people who actually believe in and support Democratic principles, and then maybe Democrats and Progressives wouldn't be put in this uncomfortable spot. Just a thought.

Anymore, from the White House on down, you really can't tell which side these bozos are on anyway.

Not trying to pick a fight here -- don't have it in me just now. But I'm truly done with blind party loyalty and support of those who just turn around and put one more knife in the back.

You do what you have to do, and I'll do what I have to do.

[indypaul]

7. Nor am I attempting to "pick a fight"

But must point out that helping to keep Indiana RED will be
the result of only voting or not voting is selected races.
"As we go through life make this your goal,
Watch the donut not the hole."