Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll

[4dsc]

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1218_89.aspx

The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first – or third.

Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.

Edwards holds a significant advantage, however, among a group who could be key to the first contest of the presidential year: those who say their first choice is someone other than the top three. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate.

[IA_Seth]

1. "candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote ..are eliminated

Ugh. Does that line bug anyone else? The level of mis-reporting on how caucuses work is so tiring. Candidates aren't "eliminated", if Dodd pulls 9% and is able to team up with Biden's 9%, one of those candidates are moving forward. You'd never know it based on this article.

The polling is interesting. I really do think Edwards is going to be a media darling after he plcaces first, if he can withstand the inevitable attacks afterward he'll have great momentum going forward. Then again, the margin of error in the first polling is 3%, so it's not all that telling, and the second poll is 4%, muddying the polling completely.

This is definitely going to be an exciting two weeks!

[snowbear]

2. We are counting on you guys....

... Please.. anyone but HRC.

[Blue Gardener]

3. You can count on me

I will not be caucusing for Hillary. I've heard from Republicans here in Iowa who are willing to switch parties this November, but not if Hillary is the candidate.

[IA_Seth]

8. Hate to disappoint you...

But I'll be selecting the candidate that I prefer, and at this point I'll be caucusing for Clinton.

Take heart, however, in that I think I'm the only Clinton supporter in the Iowa forum.

[Debi]

10. I'm sure you're not the ONLY one

Just the only vocal one :P

[IA_Seth]

14. Lol

I double dog dare a Clinton supporter to out themselves and respond to this post.

And not you Mr Vilsack. ha ha.

[Debi]

15. Great, now this thread will 'dissapear' ala-Counciltucky's curse

:rofl:

How dare you use 'He Who Must Not Be Named' s moniker on this board x(

[IA_Seth]

17. Hey, I'm looking out for his best interests...

I can't imagine the welcome he'd see in the Iowa Forum would be all that he wanted it to be. Lol.

Where is Counciltucky anyway, it's been a while I think?

[Debi]

19. On Winter Break probably, which means he's actually in Iowa now

:eyes:

Organizing Western Iowa for Edwards - boy oh boy - good luck agaisnt Steve King (his hero!)

[youthere]

11. Doesn't disappoint me...

Ok..maybe a little, because I know you were considering Biden. But I have to say I've warmed considerably towards Clinton and I will even work for her campaign in the GE if she should get the nom. Of course, I'd prefer to have you working for Biden in the GE! ;)

[IA_Seth]

13. I'd be thrilled with Biden in the GE.

I really would.

AND if shifting support will not harm Clinton (if there are 'extra' supporters), the plan is to have our extra supporters help any close-to-viable candidates become viable. I really hope to see Biden do well in Iowa, so as to keep his voice in the process.

[4dsc]

4. doesn't bother me

because they explain what you have stated "Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate. "

Are you saying the same thing they have claimed?? It looks like it..

[Debi]

6. That's not correct

If a person's chosen candidate is non-viable they can gather together with supporters of other non-viable candidates to make their candidate viable OR they can gather with supporters of viable candidate (who may move to ensure that another candidate doesn't receive an additional delegate) to make their candidate viable.

This isn't like instant run-off voting where if a candidate isn't in the top group they are out, here if a candidate isn't viable they are still in the running come realignment time.

[IA_Seth]

7. If it doesn't bother you,

You might want to make sure you understand it.

They aren't eliminated, they are asked to either realign with a then-viable candidate's preference group, or allowed to form a new preference group for a then-nonviable candidate.

[Hardrada]

21. Or are allowed to go home muttering profanities.

[IA_Seth]

22. Lol, well yes, there is always that option!

In fact, I think I recall one person taking that route at my caucus in 2004. I hope I don't see it again!

[Debi]

23. You know...undecided CAN become a viable group

(Just ask Jimmy Carter :P)

[IA_Seth]

24. I'll be stressing that at my caucus...

If the Biden/Dodd/Richardson folks (and Kucinich for that matter), can't become viable and won't compromise on a candidate, I'll be sure they know they can group together and form an 'uncommitted' group.

I don't think anything would get the media's attention quite like a 4th place uncommitted group in Iowa. Lol.

[Debi]

26. How about a second place uncommitted?

That'd set the media into a neverending spin cycle!! :rofl:

[haroldgiowa]

25. That's what I did.

The Carter group were one vote short of being viable. I moved over to them and went on to the county convention as an uncommitted candidate.

[Debi]

27. That is so cool

People forget that Carter actually came in second place in Iowa.

[4dsc]

28. I've been an undecided candidate a couple of times

I remember going to the caucuses in the 80's and 90's and identifying myself as an undecided voters and usually has enough people(15%) to get myself selected to the county caucus..

[Debi]

5. Why try to explain it anymore? They don't want to know the actual rules

they just make them up as they go along.

Hopefully enough folks here have attended the IDP's caucus training or have had their candidate's group explain the process appropriately to them.

[Debi]

9. Yea Chicago Tribune!!!

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-edwards_weddec19,1,5612272.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

<snip>

A major factor behind each candidate's criticism is a process unique to Iowa's Democratic caucuses, known as "viability."

On caucus night, in each of the state's 1,781 precincts, a presidential candidate must have the support of at least 15 percent of the people attending that caucus, and sometimes an even greater percentage in the smallest precincts. If they don't reach that threshold, the candidate is ruled non-viable and those supporters are free to back other contenders, try to encourage others to help make their candidate viable, or go with no one at all.

<snip>

[youthere]

12. Is this REALLY any surprise?

We've all been saying for months now that Edwards will win Iowa. Good for the Edwards'!

[Debi]

16. It's funny how a fellow Iowan would want to continue providing

inaccurate information - to Iowans x(
(not the Edwards part - I agree I think it's been a constant on this board that Edwards would be #1 coming out of Iowa - but the whole realignment bs)

[IA_Seth]

18. Yeah..

Even as one that doesn't support Edwards, I'd be shocked if he didn't pull first place on Jan-3rd. It seems like he's been doing all the right things organizationally that will really help him on caucus night. He's got great on-the-ground support, he's been able to stay away from the negatives the past few weeks, he's focused on a rural strategy, and he's positioned himself as a number 2 choice quite effectively.

Which is good for his campaign, because I think anything but 1st or 2nd for Edwards will harm him far greater than a disappointing finish for the rest of them.

Now he needs to finish with a bang, and hope that Clinton and Obama keep butting heads.

[Debi]

20. Heh heh

Butthead!

[lisainmilo]

29. It would be a surprise, but definately one I am hoping for

I took some kind of on line vote today, it matched up my beliefs and at the end tells you what candidate represents your beliefs. I was matched up 75% DK, but I still like Edwards the best. He doesn't waver, but for that matter neither does Dennis.