DO ANY OF THESE POLLS (ABC etc)

[walk softly]

reflect what's really happening in Iowa? Without understanding how pollsters are accumulating their information, I'm assuming we're talking about popularity numbers - which don't mean a thing in a caucus state. While pollsters may be asking confirmed caucus goers re who they support, it doesn't matter unless these folks are strategically located in precincts where they are viable and able to win the majority of delegates.

With the top three candidates running so close, the polls really mean nothing and the outcome will be more dependent on the organizational strength of each campaign in getting their folks to the caucus.

Am I understanding this correctly, if not, I welcome comment.

[IA_Seth]

1. No, I don't think they do..

Especially considering that the majority of these polls show the top 3 spots within the margin of error.

But even if they didn't, I fully agree with your assessment. I don't think you can screen for 'likely caucus goers' no matter how hard you try. To me, it would seem that a majority of people when asked would say yes, but whether or not they actually attend their caucus is another matter entirely, one more based on campaign organization than anything else (IMO).

It's why I don't think Obama will do as well as the polls are showing. It seems to me that his campaign is more focused on soft support and big mega-events, and may be lacking in the organizational areas that get the bodies to the caucuses.

I could be way off base of course!

[Rambis]

2. No ,Edwards will win

I have said it for months regardless of what the corp media wants to report.
This is our most desperate hour, help us John Edwards you are our only hope!

[Debi]

3. I agree about Edwards....he'll be #1 in Iowa n/t

[rurallib]

4. I think the media wants a Hillary / Obama horserace

and is doing everything it can to make that happen.
Just wait til they can consolidate a little more thanks to Kevin Martin. (an 'evil, evil little man' per Sen. Harkin).