Peak oil...

[4dsc]

Anyone interested in the future?? http://energybulletin.net/42404.html

I would be interested in hearing from Iowan's on this subject.. I am attempting to engage the Des Moines Register in post information on this subject as they are doing in some states from Maine, Oregon and California..

[rurallib]

1. Peak oil has been predicted forever

and so far has been proven wrong. That being said it is obvious the supply is not infinite and at the rate we are going through it the real peak may be here soon if it hasn't already passed.
I won't cite sources here due to laziness, but I have been reading about this over the years and some things stick in my mind:
1) Consider oil as the energy savings that has been deposited in the bank over the years. So the good earth has given us this huge savings account and we have blown through it like GW has blown through our national treasure.

2) I am not an engineer but from what I understand all the oil in a deposit can't be recovered. When a pool goes below 50% it becomes harder and harder to pump up the oil to a point where it can no longer be pumped up. Speculation is that the Arabian oil deposits are near that 50% level.

3) Canadian oil sands or tar sands in Alberta contain heavy crude deposits that may equal or exceed Arabian deposits. The problem is that it is expensive and environmentally risky to recover oil from the sands. But over $100 a barrel it becomes an option.

I like the savings account analogy. So if we blow the savings what will we have to bring in an income (energy on an ongoing basis to keep things going)? From what I understand that is where solar, wind and other sustainable sources come in. Not sure if biofuels enter into this equation or not. The biofuel with the greatest return from what I have heard is hemp. Our idiot government doesn't allow farmers to grow hemp. But even if it did, that would be land not growing food.

Much like the Easter Islanders in Jared Diamonds "Collapse" we probably won't realize (as a society) that we have 'cut down the last tree' (burned all our oil) until it is done.

[pstans]

2. I have read a lot on the subject in the past

Peak Oil was predicted to hit in 2005-2008 from what I have read. Peak Oil isn't something that you are going to see announced on the nightly news when it hits. We won't know that Peak Oil has hit until a few years after the fact, once the details on the amount of oil drilled are released. But just think of the huge rise in gas prices since 2005 and I think we could definitely have hit Peak.

With Iowa's agricultural economy, I think we will not face many of the effects of peak oil here if we are prepared to live more locally. The last couple years I have began gardening, going to farmer's markets, and shopping at locally owned businesses.

Here is an interesting site to read on peak oil and urban sprawl... http://www.kunstler.com

[4dsc]

3. Well almost...

1)Peak oil has not been predicted forever as you put it rurallib. In 1956 M. King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell Oil, predicted the peaking of US Oil production would occur in the early 1970's and he was correct.. Since then over 38 countries have experienced ppeak oil production including Mexico(dropping like a rock), Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the North Sea just to name a few of the big boys..This loss of production is not being made up around the world for the past 3 year, worldwide production has been very flat..

2)Its the exception to the rule for an oil field to yield more than 50% of its reserves. Most yield range from 15-40%, which is rather surprising to me..

3)Tar sands and shale oil and heavy oils from Venezuela will not be able to make up for falling oil production around the world because of the massive amounts of energy it takes to mine and refine them.. Canadian tar sands are an ecological disaster..

4)Biofuels represent a lower tier fuel and will not ever replace oil on the scale of scope needed.. You talk about hemp and that's talking about cellulose ethanol. Cellulose has been researched in the labs for the past 30 years but they have not been able to make it work on a large production scale.. Again it take more energy to produce than we get in return..

Recently, the Saudi princes and king have stated they would rather save their oil for future generations than to sell it wasteful American's.. Its estimated that within 20 years, just about no country will be EXPORTING oil and any large scale basis like we see today.. Its also estimated that by the year 2020, oil production on a worldwide basis will drop 30-40% to about 55 million barrels a day(today its about 80 mbpd)..

Sooner or later the American people will have to wake up but I afraid by then it will be too late to do anything about it..

I'm still waiting for Debi to chime in..

[haroldgiowa]

4. Debate about grains being used as fuel on CNN right now 7PM

Some bullet items

1. Using grains for fuel only supplies 16% of our needs.

If we continue to consume at the current pace this will be a mute contribution to solving the energy crisis.

2. Using corn for ethanol has caused double digit inflation in other agricultural products.

Eggs, cereals, milk and other grain dependent products have seen 12 to 17% increase in the last twelve months.

My feelings, we all need to educate ourselves to ask our leaders the challenging questions. What is wrong with electricity generated by solar, wind and water? How many hydroelectric plants are on the two bordering rivers. I know Keokuk has a huge plant, but it runs at low efficacies. Currently there is water flowing over 100 plus spillways not generating anything. Could this be looked at.

Again, I must emphasize, we cannot burn our food for fuel. Take land away from being a food source and converting it to a fuel source. Fighting hunger is more important then feeding our transportation needs.

[4dsc]

5. They're asking questions in Minnesota..

Remember back in January, when Gov. Tim Pawlenty was getting his green on, hosting a climate change forum with explorer Will Steger?

Well, he hasn't said much on a green economy since the Legislature's been in session, but at least one lawmaker wants to press a bit on the issue.

On Wednesday, the House passed a "peak oil" resolution 81 to 7 that calls for the Legislature and the guv to get ready for the day when we run out of gas. (The term refers to the idea that we've maxed out our global oil production, and we're on a slow decline from here on out.)

House File 995, sponsored by Rep. Bill Hilty, a DFLer from Finlayson, resolves that "the Legislature supports the undertaking of a statewide assessment study in order to inventory state activities and their corollary resource requirements, evaluating the impact in each area to a decline in petroleum availability and to higher prices, with the aim of developing a comprehensive state plan of action and response to Peak Oil."


http://www.minnpost.com/politicalagenda/2008/05/01/1708/lawmaker_to_guv_what_happens_at_the_end_of_oil