http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/25/18029/770/530/642208Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).
Latham (R-inc) 47
Greenwald (D) 42
In 2006, a long-serving, moderate Iowa Republican was ousted in the Democratic wave, losing a race virtually no one had expected him to lose, or even to be especially competitive. That congressman was former Rep. Jim Leach, who lost to insurgent Democrat Dave Loebsack.
It seems possible that such lightning could strike twice in Iowa.
In addition to our Orange to Blue races, we've polled a number of "under the radar" House races over the past few months, to try and gauge the level of the impending Democratic wave. We've gotten some surprising and impressive results back, but perhaps none more so than this.
Despite the purple nature of the district - IA-04 has a PVI of D+0.4, making it one of the few (slightly) Dem-leaning districts in the country represented by a Republican - Democratic candidate Becky Greenwald has been perceived as the ultimate underdog all cycle. She faces a well-entrenched incumbent in Republican Tom Latham, who has raised more than $1.3 million for his reelection bid.
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Someone told me tonight she really badly needs money to finish. Help if you can
http://www.beckygreenwald.com/