How the wave missed Iowa

[Pirate Smile]

How the wave missed Iowa

Iowa Democratic operative Jeff Link circulated an interesting theory today on how all of Iowa's Democratic congressmen survived: Republicans, he writes, surged late and missed the early voters.

From his e-mail:

In Tuesday's election, around 35% of Iowans voted before election day. ...

In Iowa, ballots are sent to people who request them in late September. This had different ramifications for each race:

Braley (won 49-48) — the American Future Fund (GOP) began advertising a week later and didn't maximize their negative advertising until weeks 3 and 2. The US chamber weighed in during week 2 and braley's opponent only had the money to advertise in the final two weeks. By that time, nearly 20% of the electorate had cast their vote. With a relatively small margin of victory, the advantage Braley gained in early vote in early October could have been determinative.

Boswell (51-47) — Boswell, too benefitted from early vote. Between the DCCC and the Boswell campaign, they attacked his opponent, Brad Zaun, relentlessly in September and early October. The race tightened in the last week, but again, nearly 1/3 of the voters had already cast ballots.

Loebsack — The late Republican surge was also thwarted in the 2nd CD because the pool of voters was reduced by roughly 30%.

Why didn't the Iowa state house and senate candidates benefit in the same way? Legislators and candidates are less known than Iowa's members of Congress. In addition, the state candidates didn't begin advertising until the final 10-14 days. Again, since 30% of the electorate voted before knowing them at all, they were more susceptible to the Republican surge.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1110/How_the_wave_missed_Iowa.html?showall#

[47of74]

1. Unfortunately...

Judicial independence died in this state on November 2nd when 3 of our Supreme Court justices were ousted because the extreme right didn't like them anymore.

Terry Braindead is once again Governor of Iowa.

The GOP has control of the Iowa House.

In other words, Iowa is going straight to shit.

[progressoid]

2. Is there any data about who the early votes actually went to?

This sort of implies that Indies and Undecideds voted early - people that might have changed their vote. But the people I know that voted early very likely voted straight D and would have anyway. :shrug:

[IADEMO2004]

3. Only if you are looking through a toilet paper tube.

[Hardrada]

4. It's these "Democratic operatives" who had us calling nonstop

enough to make people want to toss their phones out the window. These same operatives discontinued the valuable practice of pollwatching so we had no idea who might still need a ride to the voting booth and were perhaps telling Culver to pass on labor issues since the "stakeholders" might become upset. These "operatives" also ritually piss off veteran activists and even former Dem office holders and candidates since they have no idea who anybody is. God spare us from more of these little geniuses.

[kdtroxel]

5. Boswell Cheated, well sort of

Rep. Leonard Boswell sent out forms to apply for absentee ballot with his advertising all over it. Fill out the form and you get an advertisement free absentee ballot. I am sure this affected his numbers positively. Isn't there some laws against this type of ballot stuffing? I am sure Boswell was not the only one doing this, although I cant personally attest to that.

[IADEMO2004]

6. It is not cheating.

and it sure as hell isn't ballot stuffing.

[ISUGRADIA]

7. Republicans send out the same type of adverts

Quites a stretch to call this ballot stuffing and there is nothing illegal about it.