New KCCI poll

[Debi]

Culver 33%
Blouin 16%
Fallon 13%
Undecided 38%

General election match-up:
Culver 44
Nussle 43


Nussle 43
Blouin 37


Nussle 44
Fallon 34


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

What's it mean? Still too close to call with all those undecideds out there...but I LOVE that Culver has consistantly been in the lead. :bounce:

[rurallib]

1. We have a left, middle and right sector candidate

I suppose conventional wisdom would say go to the middle with Culver. I am still much more in line with Fallon's policies and so will join at least 13% of my friends and pull the lever for Ed.

[pstans]

2. Culver's lead is misleading

I read at another blog that Culver's ahead, but if you look closer he hasn't risen much. The last poll, Culver had 32% and now just 33%. Add to that Culver is the only one to run a statewide campaign, so he has the larger name recognition.

With so many undecideds, it makes me wonder if the primary will have a very big turnout or not.

[Debi]

3. Blah, blah, blah

;)
I'll take the lead. If undecided break even for each candidate Culver wins. Undecided would have to break 50/50 for Fallon and Blouin with none going to Culver for Blouin to take the lead (with 35%).

Of course, I want to see Culver pull ahead, but I'd also like to see Fallon move up. Would give me a warm fuzzy to see Blouin come in 3rd! (or fourth..come on Sal!)

[tom2]

4. Me, too!

I could go for either a Culver or Fallon win, with my sentimental favorite Sal in third, and Mike coming in fourth. But I am neutral in this race, of course.

[Hardrada]

6. But...but Blouin has all that labor support!

What happened here?

[CoffeeCat]

8. I just questioned that in my post below...

I'm wondering why and how Blouin secured all of the union support?

Why are so many unions throwing their support toward Blouin...and why not the other candidates?

[Debi]

13. Okay, this is a secret so don't tell anybody....

Tom Vilsack is the Governor - he has some power over the Democratic legislators and Labor Leaders who need bills passed in Des Moines. And.....now this is the secret part....he is supporting Mike Blouin :wow:.

What? You already knew that? Must be the worst kept secret in Iowa. Vilsack controls the statehouse Dems, the IDP and the parts of Labor that need him (read AFSCME and their most recent contract/pay raise and benefits).

Really ask yourself, if Mike Blouin is so loved by so many Democrats why can he only get support from the people who need Tom Vilsack? :shrug:

It's manufactured support and manufactured momentum.

Look at the legislators who have endorsed Blouin, how many claim to be pro-choice? How many are pushing for opened up stem-cell research? How many have sold out just in case Blouin is the next Governor? How do you feel about your legislator now?

[Debi]

12. See above - who could pull Labor's strings? n/t

[progressoid]

5. Is this a statewide poll?

What's the margin of error?

[Debi]

14. Yes it's statewide, but only a sample of 600 w/ MOE of 4%

and a MOE on the Democratic Primary voters of 5%

Sample was 30% Dem, 31% rep, 39% no party - 48% male and 52% female

[progressoid]

18. Statistically a dead heat but with baggage Nussle carries from

associations with this administration...... sure looks good for our team!!

[CoffeeCat]

7. I love that Culver is in the lead...

...I think he would be a wonderful governor.

He seems like an incredibly kind, family-guy type of person.

He doesn't have that corporate-corruption air about him.

I really hope he is our next Gov.

On another note: Does anyone know why Blouin in picking up so many endorsement from unions?

[rurallib]

9. From what I understand they think he will bring in jobs

This is from my union friend. Blouin's former job as head of DED gives him the background and experience to bring more jobs to Iowa. I believe they love the values fund and what it does. They don't believe Culver has the experience and 'toughness' to bring in jobs. Fallon is just kind of written off.
When I asked him if the jobs Blouin has brought in were union or well-payed he just said that he had no idea. Anyway, that is the way I got the story.
What I think is more curious is the almost strangle hold Blouin seems to have on the Dem legislators. While I know Fallon is considered too left, I'd have thought that Culver would have gotten more support from this group.

[IA_Seth]

10. I think you are exactly right..

Blouin's appeal to the unions, from what I can tell, is that he has a "record" or job creation, and that he seems to be a fighter..whatever that means.

Blouin's jobs may or may not be good paying jobs, and may or may not help mainly Polk county. Nobody really knows because those statistics aren't available (still waiting for a response). He has waived wage requirements for big business, which seems to me to be the most anti-worker thing he could have done.

And as far as being a "fighter", maybe he is. But maybe he is the kind of guy that will back away from his beliefs when he feels the tide turning against him (read: choice), and who has proven he is beatable in an election.

Throw in Vilsack supporting Blouin from the shadows, and it seems to be a no-brainer as to why rank-and-file union guys would buy into the "Blouin is our guy" shpeel that is surely being peddled.

What Fallon, and Culver, need to do is research the facts on "job creation" and expose them for what I suspect they are: Corporate Welfare. I suspect this job boom he is so proud of isn't the type of jobs that real unions would appreciate.

Perhaps I'm wrong.

[haroldgiowa]

11. Go to Iowa Department of Economic Development

I would suggest going to the web page for the department. It has all the minutes to the meetings. From reading the minutes, I don't find all these wage waivers. Maybe they exist and maybe they don't. I will admit I haven't read them all, but I have read a good share of them. The only place I find mention of waivers is on DU.

[IA_Seth]

15. I did.

I did go to the website, and I did email the department requesting the information. So far I have received no response. Granted, the information requsted may or may not be readily available, but I would assume being a state agency would require a lot of documentation.

Do you know of any jobs created in YOUR community by the Iowa Values Fund?

I don't. While that surely doesn't mean they don't exist (I don't work for any gov't agency), with all the hype about his ability to create jobs you would think they would have some data available.

Reading minutes to look for hard data would probably be a waste of time. I want hard data, information that shows whether or not the Iowa Values Fund is living up to it's hype.

[Debi]

16. A company can specifically request a waiver of CEBA

Rule #261 - IAC 261-53.6(1)(h)(1) pertaining to wage threshold requirements. (That's 90% of the average county wage or 90% of the average regional wage or average wage cap whichever is the lowest).

This request was granted to the City of Sioux city/Qwest Corporation in contract #05-CEBA-38 signed by IDED Director Mike Blouin and approved by the Board. 457 jobs were pledged to the Board at an 'average' wage of $13.14 per hour. For this Qwest received a $500,000 forgivable loan. (that's only one example)

Qwest is CWA - CWA just endorsed Mike Blouin.

A Labor Union endorsed a person who gave the company they work for $500,000 to keep 457 jobs at under $30,000 a year (don't know the management to worker ratio or what 'average' really means).

How much sense does that make?

Edited because I found the minutes to the meeting:

http://www.iowalifechanging.com/document/lifesrchdoc.asp

Tedious work is right - why doesn't the IDED just have a list of businesses that have requested waiver of the wage requirement?

[Hardrada]

17. Vilsack has done the state Dems considerable mischief

by this sort of sordid underhand behavior which gives politics a bad name. Seriosuly though, folks, I am tired of TIFS and waivers and unregulated and free "development zones." Both parties seem alike on giving industry and agribusiness breaks. I think I might go with Fallon since we might as well go down with our flags flying.