Can anyone beat Pat Roberts in 2008?

[election_2004]

I know that Governor Sebelius is up for reelection in 2006, but looking ahead 4 years...

is Roberts pretty much a Senator-for-life, or is he beatable?

[Psephos]

1. Give me a stick, I'll beat him right now. n/t

[rwheeler31]

3. Dennis Moore,

or probably someone from outside the area.

[SheilaT]

9. I seriously doubt Dennis Moore is interested in

trying to take on either Roberts or Brownback. He can win in the relatively liberal, relatively Democratic eastern part of the state that is his district. He'd have a much, much harder time taking on the entire state and all the conservative, not to mention the right-wing nutcases who currently support the incumbent senators.

The Democratic party tried to persuade various people to run against Brownback last year, including Moore, and when they couldn't, they simply gave up and gave absolutely no support to Joan Ruff whose campaign lasted about two months, and Lee Jones, who stayed in through election day, but who never had a chance.

I don't really know what it would take to get a truly viable senate candidate, but 2008 is four years away, and who know what will happen between now and then.

The best thing Democrats in Kansas can hope for is that Roberts will face some kind of challenge that will split the Republican party, and some Democrat can sneak in and pull it off. But I'm not holding my breath.

[hfojvt]

10. well I was happy that Jones was on the ballot

After he lost the primary and the other guy dropped out, I thought we would end up with no candidate like we had in 2002. His 307,968 votes was not too bad, although he got less than Kerry (420,846) and less than the total of Boyda (119,057), Moore (177,525), and Kinard (78,137). It would be nice if we could do a couple things as well - find a fairly strong opponent to Tiahrt, and find somebody to run against Moran. I think Moore would do well in Ryun's district because he is on TV here. In fact the Moore/Boyda total almost tops what Jones got. Why wasn't Jones on TV? I emailed two TV stations - a Senate candidate or primary should be news, but I had to learn about Boyda and Jones on the internet.
Wow, I just looked and saw the Sebelius got 441,858 votes in a non-presidential year. It shows we have at least that many who will vote for a Democrat. Still not enough to beat Brownback who got almost 800,000 votes, 60,000 more than Bush and 72,000 more than the total of Moran, Ryun, Kobach and Tiahrt.

[SheilaT]

11. Jones had no money.

The Kansas Democratic party gave him no support whatsoever. They gave no support to Joan Ruff. Apparently, those at the top of the party structure here prefer to let Brownback and Roberts run unopposed to getting behind someone who will step forward, if that person isn't their choice.

I did serious volunteer work for Joan Ruff while she was still running. She got an extremely late start (to have any hope to run a successful House or Senate campaign you really need to start raising money at least 18 months before the election) and realized she just couldn't hope to raise the money needed.

Lee Jones, who had considered declaring before Joan stepped in, then came forward, but he waited until about two days before the filing deadline to file. Those of us who knew he was planning on run, got frustrated, because meanwhile practically no one in the state knew he was out there. Lee also continued to work full time as a railroad engineer until the last few weeks, which meant he simply wasn't available to travel around the state and make people aware there would be another name on the ballot in November. Of course, that whole debacle in the primary didn't help, and when you look at the numbers, it seems pretty obvious to me that something outside of normal primary voting occurred.

But totally up votes for Moore, Boyda, and Kinard isn't that useful. Moore is very, very popular among many who consider themselves moderate Republicans. As well, perhaps, among conservative Republicans. I saw a surprising number of yards with both a Moore and a Bush yard sign, so you cannot assume that a vote for Moore is necessarily a vote for any other Democrat at any place on the ballot.

In fact, my big disappointment in Moore is that he had no coattails whatsoever. He carried Johnson County for the first time ever, and not a single new Democrat was elected to the state house or senate in Johnson county, not even those running for an open seat or who were endorsed by the Star. We still have only one Democrat in Topeka (Sue Storm, the 22nd house district).

What we Democrats in Kansas have to do, is to continue to work at the grass roots level. Become a precinct committee chair, if your precinct does not already have one. Volunteer for local candidates. Consider running yourself. Hook up with other Democrats. If you're in Johnson County we have meetings every second Saturday at the Holiday Inn in Olathe, the one near the Great Mall of the Great Plains.

It will take time, but we can take back the party and the country.

[hfojvt]

12. my own heresy in this regard is that Moore is somewhat Rep-lite

As a newbie in this area, I saw ads for Dennis Moore and starting muttering about BS right wing talking points and was kinda surprised to learn that he was not the Republican. I have also seen some votes where Moore voted to the right of the ever-odious Ryun - the medicare reform bill for one. See, I bash Moore as much as you bash Boyda, but I am sure they are better than the alternatives.

I also noticed that Jones had more money than his opponent in the primary but still lost. The local Poly-sci prof figured that alot of voters who had heard of neither candidate just voted for the person who was listed first on the ballot.

I do not see candidates doing alot of coat-tailing, perhaps because they are all scared. Who did Sebelius stump for? Who did Moore stump for? A local dem state person said she did not want to push for Boyda because it might anger some of her moderate supporters. My comment was that moderates should vote for Boyda too, it is not like Boyda was on the left wing fringe.

I would like to see a little long term thinking. It is not all about winning the 2004 election, but a strong candidate in 2004 should be a stronger candidate in 2006 or 2008. If Boyda does not run against Ryun in 2006, then the candidate might as well be me because they will not get more than 70,000 votes (unless Gilstrap, Ruff or Crow run). But as far as I can tell, Gilstrap is to the right of Boyda. He did not goto Lawrence to oppose the Iraq war as Boyda was accused of doing.

[atommom]

13. Moore was one of the "new Democrats" in the House who

signed a letter supporting the bankruptcy bill. I'm still steamed about that. In general, I've agreed with his voting record, but I think he's afraid of being seen as too liberal. Even in NE Kansas, it's not easy to win re-election as a Dem.

OTOH, his Republican opponent would have been a very scary congressman indeed. I don't regret having voted for Moore.

[SheilaT]

15. Moore absolutely is Republican lite.

In many parts of the country he would be a Republican, but here he passes for a Democrat. Tells you a lot about just how far to the right the Kansas Republican party really is, doesn't it?

Nancy Boyda changed her registration from R to D and moved from somewhere here in Johnson Country to where ever it is she lives now specifically to be able to run against Ryun. What hurt her tremendously was her commitment to a same sex marriage ban. Many who would otherwise have supported her figured, why bother? I was at a woman's political event when the question came up (and that was the first time I'd heard about it) and you could see women putting away their checkbooks when they'd been preparing to give her money. I myself gave her half of what I'd originally planned to.

As to Jones losing to whatsisname (I honestly can't recall it right now), I also thought that it was the first name on the ballot thing, but was told that the names' order alternated by precinct. I think it was in Topeka that the other guy suddenly got 80 or 90 percent of the vote. The best theory that anyone came up with was that some of the churches got their membership to cross over and get a Democratic party ballot (since there was no meaningful Republican primary there) and vote for the other guy, since he would have been even less of a threat than Jones.

And you're absolutely right about the need for long term thinking. The Kansas Democratic Party has done nothing at all about developing candidates. I'm a perfect example. I was asked by the party to run for the state house, since no other Democrat had stepped forward in my district, and I'd become just active enough (volunteering for Dean, then Joan Ruff and after that Dennis Moore) that my name came up. But I was given no significant support, and quite frankly had no idea what I was doing. I seriously doubt I'll ever run again, although I'd given plenty of aid and advice to the person who would run in this district in 2006.

I can't state it too strongly, that the thing to do, if you really care about getting Democrats in office, is to hook up with local Democrats and become a precinct committee chair yourself. If you live in Johnson County, our next Second Saturday will be April 9, 2004 at the Holiday Inn in Olathe, the one near the Great Mall of the Great Plains. Please come, meet other Dems, and feel connected and as if we matter. Because we do. And there are more of us than you'd realize.

[beyurslf]

16. I seriously doubt the Republicans had anything to do with Jones' loss

in the primary. They were not worried about either one of them in the general. It was a strange fluke that happened because most people didn't know either candidate--and it highlights why the Republicans had nothing to worry about in the general.

[Wabbajack]

2. I doubt it

Kansas hasn't had a Dem senator since the DEPRESSION. :(

[Goldeneye]

4. I'm curious: Could a pro-life dem beat him?

Abortion is one of the big issues isn't it? I'd take a pro-life dem over a republican any day.

[Wabbajack]

6. Wrong approach

Dems in Kansas win by appealing to moderate pro-choice repubs.

[Telly Savalas]

7. That's how Sebelius won the governorship

although her opponent was more helpful than Pat Roberts would be.

[Wabbajack]

8. Telly, loved you in that episode of "Bonanza"

[atommom]

5. God, I hope so. Did you see this story?

“Declaring that the CIA is ‘not torturing detainees,’ the Republican chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee said Thursday that he saw no reason for the panel to investigate allegations that the agency abused prisoners or transferred them to countries that engage in torture,” the Los Angeles Times — and a host of other media — reports this morning.

That chairman? Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, of course.

"’Let me assure you the Senate Intelligence Committee is well aware of what the CIA is doing overseas in the defense of our nation and they are not torturing detainees,’ Roberts said in a speech in Washington.

http://blogs.ljworld.com/kansas_congress/2005/mar/11/notlooking/

Honestly, I don't think he's ever said anything that didn't piss me off....

[beyurslf]

14. What's wrong with Sebelius doing it.... unless of course she is on the

national ticket in 2008 :) Start spreading the word.... we have a great candidate for the White House right here in KS.