Wonderful and inspiring poll results from KY, with observations

[nonconformist]

source: SurveyUSA

May 15, 2006 Bush Approval Ratings

All Adults

• Approve:     34%
  
• Disapprove: 64%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Gender Male

• Approve:     39%
  
• Disapprove: 59%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Gender Female

• Approve:     29%
  
• Disapprove: 69%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Age 18-34

• Approve:     24%
  
• Disapprove: 73%
  
• Not Sure:     3%

Age 35-54

• Approve:     40%
  
• Disapprove: 58%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Age 55+

• Approve:     36%
  
• Disapprove: 62%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Race White

• Approve:     35%
  
• Disapprove: 63%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Race Black

• Approve:     31%
  
• Disapprove: 68%
  
• Not Sure:     1%

Race Hispanic

• Approve:     17%
  
• Disapprove: 83%
  
• Not Sure:     0%

Race Other

• Approve:     9%
  
• Disapprove: 91%
  
• Not Sure:     0%

Party Affiliation Republican

• Approve:     62%
  
• Disapprove: 36%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Party Affiliation Democrat

• Approve:     15%
  
• Disapprove: 83%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Party Affiliation Independent

• Approve:     24%
  
• Disapprove: 72%
  
• Not Sure:     5%

Ideology Conservative

• Approve:     59%
  
• Disapprove: 38%
  
• Not Sure:     3%

Ideology Moderate

• Approve:     24%
  
• Disapprove: 74%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Ideology Liberal

• Approve:     19%
  
• Disapprove: 79%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Region Western Kentucky

• Approve:     39%
  
• Disapprove: 59%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Region Louisville Area

• Approve:     32%
  
• Disapprove: 67%
  
• Not Sure:     1%

Region North Central Kentucky

• Approve:     34%
  
• Disapprove: 64%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Region Eastern Kentucky

• Approve:     30%
  
• Disapprove: 66%
  
• Not Sure:     5%

Education Grad School

• Approve:     35%
  
• Disapprove: 63%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Education College Grad

• Approve:     36%
  
• Disapprove: 63%
  
• Not Sure:     1%

Education Some College

• Approve:     35%
  
• Disapprove: 62%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Education No College

• Approve:     31%
  
• Disapprove: 66%
  
• Not Sure:     3%

Attend Church Never

• Approve:     26%
  
• Disapprove: 73%
  
• Not Sure:     1%

Attend Church Occasionally

• Approve:     32%
  
• Disapprove: 65%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Attend Church Regularly

• Approve:     39%
  
• Disapprove: 58%
  
• Not Sure:     2%

Abortion Pro-Life

• Approve:     46%
  
• Disapprove: 51%
  
• Not Sure:     3%

Abortion Pro-Choice

• Approve:     21%
  
• Disapprove: 78%
  
• Not Sure:     1%

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Some notable observations:

While nearly all demographics show a steady decline in approval ratings over the past year, there are some (odd) exceptions:

• Black approval has been all over the map, up and down, and is currently at it's second highest point (31%) in the last year. The approval rating for the 4/10/06 poll is 14%, so May's approval is up 14.7% among blacks. From 5/10/05 - 5/15/06, the highest approval rating is 36% (9/19/05) and the lowest is 9% (5/10/05).
  
  
• The Hispanic approval has been dramatically erratic, up and down - from 5/10/05 - 5/15/06, the highest approval rating is 83% (9/19/05) and the lowest, by a significant margin, is the current 17%.
  
  
• Approval with Other Races have been erratic as well, with huge ups and downs - from 5/10/05 - 5/15/06, the highest approval rating is 68% (8/15/05) and the lowest is the current 9%, down signficantly from the 45% approval last month (4/10/06).
  
  
• It's worth noting that the Composition samples of minority groups in these polls (7% Black, 1% Hispanic and 2% Other) closely match the demographics of the state of Kentucky, according to the 2000 Census.
  

Many of the results seem to go against typical stereotypes; for example:

• Highly educated people were not more likely to disapprove of Bush - in fact, the opposite seems true. Within the Education demographics, the lowest approval rating was 31% (No College) and the highest was 36% (College Grad), with Grad School and Some College tieing at 35%.
  
  
• Rural, religious areas were not more likely to approve of Bush. Rural, heavily Protestant Eastern Kentucky - with a significant amount of fundementalist evangelical Christians and Southern Babtists - gave Bush the lowest approval rating of all the Regional demographics (30%), while areas around large cities considered mostly Democratic/Liberal gave Bush slightly higher approvals (32% Louisville, 34% Lexington area). However, staying somewhat true to stereotypes, mostly rural Western Kentucky - also home to two military bases (Fort Knox and Fort Campbell) - gave Bush the highest Regional approval ratings in the state at 39%.

I thought these were very interesting numbers. The only positive approval ratings are among Republicans (62%) and Conservatives (59%) - but every other demographic breakdown has Bush at negative approval, including Pro-Life (46%) and Regular Church Attendies (39%), groups that are often considered a signficant loyal part of his base. The minority results over the past year puzzle me due to their inconsitency and giant swings. I think the huge drop in Hispanic support is due to, obviously, the current illegal immigration debate, but at the same time Hispanics also hold the record for the largest Bush approval rating in Kentucky over the past year at a whopping 83%. I'm perplexed as to why he is gaining among Blacks - but again, the results have been erratic and I'm anxious to see if the trend holds when the polls come out next month.

Finally, in conclusion, I think overall these polls are fantastic for Kentucky. Most of them show a fast and steady decline - and many are among surprising demographics - which is heartening and showing that the disapproval is very deep and widespread. Coupled with the scandal-ridden hugely-unpopular Republican Governor Fletcher, I really think that Kentucky will no longer be red, or even purple, in the coming years. I have a theory, and it generally seems to pan out, that once someone is disillusioned/disgusted/disappointed/angered/appalled/shocked by even one or two instances, they tend to look at everything from that individual/party in a different light and more skeptically. I can see, hear and feel this happening all around me. I live in rural Eastern Kentucky, and part of me is not surprised that we have the lowest approval rating in the state because people in this region are PISSED... but part of me was surprised, given the "moral values" issues that seemed to be able to dupe so many.

Kentucky is going blue, folks. :)

[Roland99]

1. Tell that to B/C '04 & W sticker and yellow ribbon drivers around Lou.

Then again, there's going to be an abnormal amount of abnormal people due to Six Flags Over Jesus here.