Al Cross | Could the winds be blowing Rand Paul's way?

[BridgeTheGap]

The polls were encouraging for Kentucky Democrats in late July, showing Ben Chandler with a double-digit lead over challenger Andy Barr in the 6th Congressional District and Jack Conway running even with, or in striking distance of, Rand Paul in the U.S. Senate race. But a closer look at the numbers, and the media environment, should encourage Republicans.

The greatest challenge in election polling is getting a sample of respondents most likely to cast a ballot. When called by live or recorded interviewers, the vast majorities usually say they're certain to vote, but when the election is held, actual voter turnout is often less than half of what that threshold question indicates. That is especially true in a non-presidential election like this year's.
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The trend is partly a function of human nature. People are drawn to information sources that confirm their existing beliefs and do not challenge them. And as media outlets have proliferated, the audience has been fractionalized, making news outlets hungry for readers, listeners and viewers but short of the resources they once had to gather news. Some rely more on opinion; it's a lot cheaper to put a talking head on the air than it is to pay journalists to dig up facts.

The bottom line is that the market for opinion in our republic has increased, while the market for fact has decreased. “There is only a small market for moderation and reason,” John Harris, who moved from The Washington Post to edit the mainly online outlet Politico , wrote recently.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100801/COLUMNISTS12/308010043/1016/OPINION/Al+Cross+|+Could+the+winds+be+blowing+Rand+Paul+s+way?

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