Louisiana's congressional districts, what can we pick up?

[Hippo_Tron]

Right now we have the 2nd and the 3rd. From what I have seen so far, Melancon is incredibly popular and easily beats his most formidable possible challenger, Craig Romero.

Bill Jefferson is facing corruption charges, but the 2nd votes for a Dem no matter what, so it will either be Jefferson or another Dem (preferably another Dem and one with more spine than Jefferson).

And the rest...

The 7th district is obviously the most likely pickup, considering that until 2004, it has been held by a Dem since the civil war. Also, Boustany's recent comments make him look like an idiot.

So... what is left?

The first district is pretty much out of the question. This is a district that has large white suburban population. Even if we ran a socially liberal pro-Republican fiscal policy (I refuse to say fiscally conservative, because Republicans aren't fiscally conservative) Democrat, it would still be extremely difficult. Unless we find a Louisiana equivalent of Paul Hackett, dems don't stand a chance in the 1st.

Then there's the 4th, 5th, and 6th. Let's start with the 5th. The 5th is represented by Rodney Alexander who was elected as a Zell Miller type DINO and then switched parties right before the deadline in 2004, so that he would be guaranteed a safe seat. Before that, the district was represented by GOP nutball John Cooksey who left to challenge Mary Landrieu for the Senate and didn't even get close in the runoff. I don't know how Alexander polls exactly, but Bush fatigue is certainly setting in. If a good dem steps up to challenge Alexander, can he be taken down?

Now, for the 4th and 6th. Both of these districts voted for Bush in 2000 by about 12 points or so. The 4th contrains the very Republican city of Shreveport, so I don't know how possible this district is. The 6th contains Baton Rouge, which is supposed to be the only other liberal bastion in the state besides New Orleans. Here's the thing about Baton Rouge, though. Many Katrina refugees have moved there and some are staying parmanently. If Baker retires or recieves a formidable challenger, could this one be in play?

What are everyone's thoughts.

[KingFlorez]

1. A little analysis

The 7th district is worth going for, it has a history of electing centerist democrats and if we run the right centerist it's good. Same with the 5th, if we get the right Democrats we ought to be able to pull it off. The 6th Baker had a formidable challenge in Majorie McKeithen in 1998, he nearly lost. The 4th is no good as long as McCrery is in there, but when he retires we'll have a shot with a centrist democrat from a rural area.

[doc9464]

2. Are they all worth going for

Rather than try to strategize.....I like the mantra of Howard Dean...we should be contesting every district where a Dem is not in the spot......we have to challenge all of them

[newyawker99]

3. Hi doc9464!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[doc9464]

8. a little late but thanks for the welcome

im split between mass and LA.....ill offer my help to anyone who wants to stop Rodney alexander.....i work out of Monroe area when down in La.

[votefordan]

4. I agree

But we have to actually challenge them and support the Democratic candidates in the race.

When I ran for Congress against Bobby Jindal it disheartened me that the Democratic party wouldnt do anything unless one of the Democratic candidates actually forced a runoff. I worked my butt off to get as many votes as I could, and did well for the money I raised. However, obviously it wasnt enough and we elected someone who ignored the main issue that I raiased in the 2004 election. This was the fact that coastal restoration and hurricane protection is the #1 priority facing all of Louisiana.

He ignored it, passed no bills in the time he was there, and people died because of his and other people's willingness to put this issue on the back burner.

But back to the original point. If we are to actually contest people in all seats, we need to actually be supportive of those who run or else nobody will.

[Daylin Byak]

5. We can get Boustany's District

That district was blue when Chris John was there rep and it could happen again...with the right candidate of course.

Oh yeah and Jindal's district is a lost cause.

[votefordan]

6. Think long term.

Jindals district is a lost cause for THIS election. Does that mean we shouldnt be running candidates and supporting them so that we can gain some more of a foothold in the district?

I mean COME ON.... lets say we can get Jindal from a 78% to 70% in this election. Wouldnt that be a good target. Maybe in 2008 we can get the seat down to 65%. Maybe in 2010 we get it to 55% Maybe in 2112 we get it so a Democrat has a chance at winning.

Think in the LONG TERM! We need to be supporting people EVERYWHERE to gain ground where we can.

[ctl]

7. the 7th district

I have to disagree about an easy pick up. If my city (lake charles) controlled the vote, Hunter Lundy or Willie Mount could win, but Boustany is from Lafayette where the votes are. Lafayette likes hometown and will vote for a repub if its a hometown candidate. I hate to be negative bout this one, but its true.

[LouisianaTaxMan]

9. Effects of Katrina in general

I'm new here, so I can't initiate posts (yet). I have some thoughts about the Katrina effects in Louisiana in general:

One "conventional wisdom" statement I've heard repeatedly since Katrina is that Louisiana will now be heavily Republican since Katrina scattered many of the residents of Orleans Parish. In Louisiana TM fashion, I thought I'd verify this "wisdom."

I looked at every statewide election since 1987 where you had viable Republican competition - there were 17 of them. Then I (1) subtracted Orleans Parish's votes, and (2) subtracted the 9th Ward's votes. What I found was:

1. Orleans Parish almost always added 3 points to the Democratic margin, and the 9th ward almost always added 1 point to the Democratic margin (this consistency over an 17 year time frame was interesting);

2. The 9th Ward only ONCE determined an election - Mary Landrieu's 1996 race. Orleans Parish has affected the outcome of only THREE races - BOTH Landrieu races and the 1995 Governor's primary (had there been no Orleans Parish, Foster and Roemer would have been in a runoff);

3. FWIW, three other races would have been closer had there been no Orleans Parish. J. Bennett would have beaten Duke only 51/46, Clinton in 1992 would only have carried the state by 1343 votes, and Blanco would have only beaten Jindal by 5133 votes.

Bottom line: Orleans Parish and even the 9th Ward plays SOME role in the results, but not as much as you think.

[newyawker99]

10. Hi LouisianaTaxMan!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: