Coastal Louisiana DU'ers - from the WWL Weatherman

[finecraft]

Heads Up!

http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=22464

A complete post is coming out soon from me. But wanted to address the wobble or WNW drift. I personally would not like o see any drift to the North at all due west or southwest would be best for everyone. But you can’t ignore what we are seeing or the fact that there is clearly a weakness in the ridge over AR, North MS and Western TN. You can clearly see this on the WV loop. There is some upper divergence with a small jet streak there. I am going to watch that area closely to se what happens there. As for LA affects there is good reason a Ts watch is up all the way to Grand Isle. One it’s a possibility the storm could move to right more and still hit the TX/LA line and two it’s huge and powerful. She’s’ a monster and if you have doubts about your safety leave. There could be some storms surge and save action on the order of 4-7” in lower Lafourche and Jefferson and point to the west. Plus Heavy rains and tropical storm form winds across SELA. I am really more concerned with the rain, as seen today Florida still has heavy rain bands. So those are my concerns now. I’ll post more later.

On a side not we have truly been witnessing history here with two of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic with in a month. Rita may top Katrina and maybe even come close to Gilbert before she moves into slightly cooler water.

Brad
_________________
Brad Panovich
Meteorologist
WCNC & WWL TV
Charlotte, NC and New Orleans, LA

[finecraft]

1. Update from WWL Weatherman

http://www.wwltv.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=22512&sid=12f9950842e775b94230445e83faa287

There is clearly a small weakness over AR, Northern MS and Western TN. This is having a small impact on Rita, but this doesn’t appear to be the only thing working on her. The upper low over the Bay of Campeche is also adding in a slight northern jog. I don’t feel either of these is strong enough to turn the storm towards SELA. But with the turn starting sooner then later I am concerned again this evening after wavering this morning… I am back to the TX/LA border area. Lake Charles be ready!!!!!!

Let’s get to some intensity stuff, she will clearly be a strong Cat 5 tonight and may slightly weaken tomorrow. I don’t see her weaken more then a Cat 4 before landfall. Which means she will have a huge surge because of her time as a Cat 5 tonight and tomorrow and maintaining Cat. 4 strength until landfall the surge will be built up. That means areas From Corpus Christi to Lafayette need to be ready for a potentially huge storm surge. Areas from Assumption Parish right thought the tidal lakes will have above normal tides and a surge possible as high at 6-7’. Shes big and pushing a lot of water.

Track forecast still seems on track but, worry that such a large powerful storm can never be handled well by numerical modeling. That along with this ever so slight WNW movement now for about 3-5 hours makes me lean right of the NHC forecast track. I think Galveston to Lake Charles should treat this as a mandatory evac from a Cat. 5 storm.

[benito]

2. now I gotta go to bed thinking about this

I remember the Saturday before Katrina. I was driving through town and it was creepy. Everyone's grass was cut. All the junk in their yard was picked up. It was so.....clean. Luckily, we didn't feel it as bad as it could have been.

The pre-cleanup will begin again tommorrow. Sleep well Acadiana!

[AnnInLa]

3. well, hell's bells

Guess I'll call today and cancel my flight to Washington DC tomorrow. Any jog to the north has to be awful for us. Let's stay in touch today (Thursday) with any news about the track, please??

[finecraft]

4. Will do. What are you doing up so early?

I started seeing more info about a northern movement last night, so I haven't slept very well. (That, and a severly infected ear)

[AnnInLa]

5. Sorry to hear (?) about your ear

I hope you see someone about it soon, in case something bad happens here. ???

Couldn't sleep well either, worried about what to do about my trip to DC. I just emailed my friend in AK to tell her I wouldn't be coming. The 5 day forcast makes it look like I wouldn't be able to fly home to Lafayette on Monday because of the inland storm forcast. So, maybe next time, I'll go raise hell with GWB!

Am watching channel 4 (3), and he (weather guy) doesn't sound too worried, but I don't like what I am seeing on Wunderground and in your posted blogs. Will watch this thread today in case you post more info!

[finecraft]

6. Just heard..Vermilion Parish officials meeting at 7:00 am

There is already a voluntary evacuation for Intracoastal City and south of Forked Island. Parish officials will decide what to do at 7:00 for other areas of the parish.

[benito]

7. ahhh, Dave Baker?

well, that's good! Perillo is usually first to start beating the panic drum.
I just watched the feed from katc.com. We're gonna feel this one for sure, but Lili passed right over our houses Ann. Hopefully, the workplace will give us Friday off to do what we need to do.

I remember when Isadore looked like it was gonna hit LA, but it moved all the way to Mississippi. That was Eric Davis on the drum that time. WalMart was empty because of that guy and the storm missed us completely. I heard Dave Baker tore him a new one and Eric didn't stay long after that. I'll see what Baker says this evening after the 4:00 update. It's still too far away right now.

I'm not too happy about the northern jog. period.

[AnnInLa]

8. Yes, Dave Baker...(senility sets in)

I didn't stay for Lili....and my friends and son, who did stay, said they would NEVER stay for another hurricane. So, even with tropical storm conditions, I think I might go...maybe. Here comes the dithering again. I'm almost positive they will cancel school tomorrow, either the whole day, or at noon. After the 10:00 update, someone please post it...I am always checking things out (weather, DU) on the computer from work. And, they pay me for this!