sad state of affairs in washington county

[luckyleftyme2]

they lost the sardine factories when I was a kid,the fishing industry has suffered all over in maine. the lumber industry is hurting. the paper mill is cutting back. blueberries are a seasonal job.
we have voted down the lng project,the casino,and about everything these people have tried.
yes their is two maines.
and once again cumberland county south has proved it!

[mainegreen]

1. It was a very close vote.

Very close. I think they just failed to market themselves appropriately.

[RBInMaine]

2. This election cycle skewed to the right.

Polls close to the election date showed the racino and all of the bond issues passing by fairly healthy margins. Except for the environmental bond, they barely passed and the racino was narrowly defeated. The term limit extension got clobbered, but probably moreso than it would have with a larger turnout. It would be interesting to look at the numbers. My bet is that given the low off-year turnout, further pushed down by some very bad weather, the more active voters in such circumstances who tend to lean Republican/Conservative came to the polls in larger numbers than the more Liberal/Dem voters who are less reliable unless they are motivated by certain questions and pushed to the polls by the campaign organizations. My theory is a larger liberal turnout would have ensured stronger victories for the bonds and a passing vote for the racino. The racino question no doubt activated the religious right type voters to come out in decent numbers. The tribe and the racino backers should have campaigned harder and pushed the vote. I think they took it for granted which can never, ever happen. Same for the organizations backing the bonds, although they did pass. I myself am torn on the issue. I voted YES, but somewhat reluctantly. We can not place too much emphasis on gambling as economic development, but at the same time we need to do something in Washington County, and they were going to use chunks of the money for some good things. I figured it deserved an opportunity in this case. Plus it was a matter of fairness given that Bangor got their racino project. Too bad they couldn't bring it back in next year's presidential cycle and with a stronger campaign. If so it would pass.

[luckyleftyme2]

3. lets face it

one third of the state controls the whole state. reason population! just york and cumberland county on a poor turnout can swing the vote.
If I was the tribal council I would be beating a path to the new brunswick tribe and doing all I could to join forces with them. In this day and age they probably can achieve this.
after 20 years of trying to do something for their county and tribe maybe its time for them to look elsewhere. which will be maine's loss!

[Shorebound]

4. Very true

The racino lost in every county except Washington, Kennebec, and Androscoggin, according to the results I saw in the Bangor Daily News. So I'm not certain the Two Maines argument holds completely on this one. Nor do I blame Repuke/conservative/fundie voters -- the racino lost BIG in York County, one of the most liberal in the state. There were other factors at work here, I think.

Lucky has the right idea in suggesting Maine's tribes attempt to link up with those in New Brunswick. A slot machine casino is already planned for St. John, NB. (The news of that BTW came out just before the vote. I would bet it had some influence on the outcome.)

[luckyleftyme2]

5. I think it was deliberate

I think without a doubt it was deliberate,when playing hard ball you adjust immediately and
upset the opposition.
lets see how much clout is lost by the other side if the money leaves the country.
and when I referred to two Maine's I didn't mean conservative and liberal; in the past the voters of both parties have kept the money south of bangor. but now that bangor has more political clout(increased money value or businesses who's home offices are out of state) the line is creeping north.
this is nothing new you can go back to the interstate system or the turnpike and look at old
news clips to see how hard they tried to stop the money for roads heading north.
the only way maine can prosper is as a whole;any division whether monetary or political will
only weaken MAINE'S FUTURE!

[RBInMaine]

6. I still have little doubt that turnout factors were at work.

Take a look at the polling data below which I pasted from the internet. You simply can not discount turnout dynamics in an off-year cycle: who actually showed up to vote and why. True, there are often a combination of factors. It may be that in the end more voters became nervous about state spending given recent spikes in energy costs etc. so were more fiscally conservative with the state's purse strings on the bond issues causing two of them to barely pass. But it is also well known that more conservative/Republican type voters tend to be more reliable in off-year,
lower-turnout cycles absent hot-button issues and campaigns designed to activate more liberal voters. It is undoubtedly true that the Racinos-No people activated the cultural conservatives with their adverising and campaigning in ways the more liberal constituencies were not activated. Critical Insights is a time-tested public opinion outlet that uses tried and true polling methodolgies. When a late poll shows the kind of numbers you see below and then something else happens, you must absolutely consider turnout dynamics (especially with bad weather conditions). And yes, it may also be true that certain areas of the state, in the end, voted the racino down out of some sense of self-interest moreso than out of ideological interest; i.e. Bangor, a democratic-leaning city, voted it down, but then again they have a racino of their own to protect, and, still, more conservative leaning voters may have shown up whereas the liberals were more apt to stay home, so both dynamics may have been at work there. I would like to see the turnout numbers by party. That would be interesting. I am still willing to bet that with a higher liberal-leaning turnout, the racino would have passed and the bonds would have passed by at least slightly higher margins.


November 01, 2007

Poll shows racino wins, term change loses

A poll released Thursday by the Portland firm Critical Insights shows the Washington County racino getting approval from 56 percent of Mainers, with 36 percent opposed and 8 percent undecided.
The racino will be Question 1 on Tuesday’s ballot.
The poll also showed:
Rejection of Question 5, which would give lawmakers six terms (12 years) instead of four terms. The poll showed a 64 percent no vote, 32 percent yes and 4 percent don’t know.
And if the poll turns out to be accurate, all three bond issues will pass.
The poll was taken in late October by interviewing 408 likely voters via telephone.
Margin of error is 4 percent.

[Shorebound]

7. All good points

I wonder if the Critical Insights poll wasn't counterproductive. It might have persuaded racino supporters to stay home and avoid the weather, thinking their vote wasn't necessary for the measure to win, while it also motivated opponents to vote despite the weather.

Bottom line, a number of factors combined to defeat the measure. I'm not convinced, given the results in traditionally liberal southern Maine and my own experience among liberal friends, that this breaks down neatly into a liberal/conservative question. There were too many other motivators at work here, I suspect.

I also suspect the idea may be back for another vote in the future.

[luckyleftyme2]

8. The date of the polls made them mute

the polls were out dated because of the news release from new brunswick about the plans for a casino in st.john new brunswick.
this news was basically released late sunday. the 4th of nov. -the vote was on tuesday the 6th
of nov.
do you find this odd that not one hint of this was made until basically the day before the election?
do you think that no one in the casino world knew of it?
this probably was the deciding factor that sank the casino.
I stand by what I said before that the Indian tribe would probably do better if they joined forces with their canadian brothers.

[RBInMaine]

9. Good points too, but....

As you can see from my last message I am not breaking this down completely into an ideological split.
As you can see I state that a combination of factors were most likely at work.
We are talking about what tipped the balance to NO on the racino and lower
favorable margins on the bonds, and we can not discount those ideological turnout factors that TEND to hold true in off year cycles. You may be very correct about the polling data and its effect.
If enough supporters of the bonds and racino thought they'd pass by healthy margins no matter what,
indeed more may have stayed home especially given the very crappy weather conditions across the state. Even though southern Maine is more liberal, it may be that at least larger proportions of conservative leaning voters turned out than did the more liberal proportions. It's not always entirely about party enrollment in a given area. It is about turnout. Did more R's and conservative leaning independents turn out compared to the more democratic/liberal voters STATEWIDE, thus shifting the balance enough to close the bond margins and narrowly defeat the racino? Were the anti-racino people more effective in the end activating the cultural conservative constituencies than were the pro-racino people in activating their supporters? And yes, maybe the New Brunswick announcement had an effect. I'm willing to bet that to some degree even some of the more liberal voters became a bit more concerned about money issues given high energy costs and a long winter ahead so were a bit tighter with the purse strings. However, as I say, given the late polling data showing healthy pro-racino and pro-bond numbers, you absolutely can not discount constituency turnout differentials. I would be very interesting to see those post-election breakdowns.

And I agree. I think we'll see the racino questions again. And if so, they will have to market the idea better and conduct a GOTV campaign if they want it to pass. And they should do it either in a presidential cycle or at least in a gubernatorial cycle.

[luckyleftyme2]

10. like I said

THIS IS ONLY TRUE IF THE NEWS CAME OUT ABOUT CANADAS CASINO BEFORE THE POLLS. YOUR POINT IS MUTE BECAUSE IT DIDN'T.
AND YEA IT WAS DESIGNED TO SINK THE CASINO VOTE,NOTHING TO DO WITH THE BONDS!

[RBInMaine]

11. No "lucky," my is damn well not MOOT.

First of all, the term you are looking for is "MOOT," not "mute." You seem to be attributing the failure of the racino mainly on the New Brunswick announcement, and that assertion is no doubt flawed. To say that Mainers voted down the racino in MAINE merely because there is another plan in New Brunswick may have had some effect but was certainly not the only factor here. The scientific polling data showed the racino passing SOLIDLY with only 32% opposed just days before the vote.
I doubt the New Brunswick plan announcement alone flipped that many opinions at the 11th hour. The poll also showed the bonds doing much better than they did in the end. No single factor can account for everything, but you are wrong not to consider that the turnout differentials I have cited could well have been a big part of the mix, and I would certainly presume they were. If the post-election analysis were to show that higher proportions (not necessarily majorities) of conservatives voted than did liberals, one must conclude this as a major factor in the results. Absent a hot button issue for liberals coupled with a GOTV effort, it is liberals who tend to stay home in off year elections compared to conservatives who are more reliable. I'm willing to bet that cultural conservatives opposed to gambling were more motivated to vote than those who would have no problem with gambling, and that this may well have shifted the balance to NO on that questions.

[luckyleftyme2]

12. aw well heres one for ya

go to :telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com look up the casino. the fact is there will be one casino built in new brunswick,the location has not yet been picked it will take several years to establish the location and get approval.
and this term is not the one I PICKED FOR YOU;MUTE LIKE IN TUNNEL VISION-I'M THE ONLY ONE WHO KNOWS ETC.
MOOT MEANS PREVIOUS INFORMATION WHICH ANYONE WHO THINKS KNOWS APPLIES TO THE CASINO VOTE.
P.S OF COURSE YOU KNOW BETTER,BUT MOST OF THE TV COMMENTATORS STATED THIS MONDAY.
YOU SOUND LIKE A BECKER FAN TO ME.
PREHAPS IF YOU HAD LISTENED TO ANY OF THE RADIO OR TV STATIONS THE DAY BEFORE OR ELECTION
DAY YOU WOULD'VE HEARD THIS.THATS MUTE NOT MOOT!

[RBInMaine]

13. A communicated point can not be "mute."

Lucky, with no disrespect intended, articulated points can not be "mute." Given that I am able to speak (trust me on that) and write, it is quite evident that I am not "mute." Your grammar is simply in error. "Mute" means an inability to speak (or, in our context, to communicate and articulate clearly be it spoken or written) usually given an illness, injury, neurological disability, or hearing impairment. Now, at the end of your last message you come closer, I think, to what you were actually trying to say: asserting that I didn't hear or listen to the media chatter regarding the New Brunswick casino plan, and therefore my point was flawed. I certainly did hear the announcement, saw/heard it on the tv news, and read it in the paper. I gather that part of your your is that the New Brunswick announcement was deliberately played up in the media so as to turn the tide on the racino vote.(?) Now, if your point is that my theory concerning turnout differentials and their impact on the election is flawed since the polling data preceded the New Brunswick announcement, then, if you desire, you can argue that the polling data were
"mooted" (made irrelevant) by the subsequent New Brunswick announcement (which, I guess, is what you are actually trying to do). It would have been more correct from the beginning for you to have argued your point using the term "moot" coupled with your assertion that I must have been "deaf" to the New Brunswick announcement (though I was not). Be all this as it may, I will again remind you that my theory regarding turnout differentials and their impact on last week's election is just that: a THEORY. I happen to think that the theory is a pretty good one, but certainly not necessarily the only factor. I am saying that considering turnout differentials must always occur, especially in off-year election cycles. One must consider what was on the ballot and who was most motivated to turn out (especially in bad weather). Remember, not only did the racino fail, two of the bonds nearly failed when the polling data showed them winning quite solidly. More conservative voters will tend to vote down bonds. Now, your theory regarding the New Brunswick announcement may well have been a factor too. I'm not saying it wasn't. I'm just saying it's probably not the only factor. I would doubt that it alone accounted for the failure of the question when the poll had it passing 56%-32%. I would weigh the outcome more toward anti-racino folks showing up to vote in larger proportions than those more sympathetic to allowing it. Finally, I'm not sure what you mean by a "Becker fan" (please clarify), but if by chance you are asserting that I am a fan of Glenn Beck you are sorely mistaken. I'm a very devout Democrat, hold an office in my local Democratic committee, and work like hell for the party with one goal in mind: to defeat the Republican
right-wing at every turn. You and I have agreed on most issues in this forum, so let's stay friends even if there is an occasional moment of difference. Sound good? Take care.

[luckyleftyme2]

14. WELL DUH YA FINALLY GOT IT

MAY I ADD YOUR NEVER WRONG AS YOUR VISION IS MUTED!

[RBInMaine]

15. May I add that you consider my ENTIRE message.

Sorry Lucky, but an adult admits when he is mistaken, and you should. Sorry again, but I and others have noticed that at times your grammar, spelling, and syntax have a bit to be desired. Be that as it may, I do give your point on the racino fair credit as it may well have had some effect on the outcome. Too bad you can't be fair enough to give my point a little credit. Also, I ended my last message on a very polite note. I still compliment most of what you offer on this site, and I agree with most of your political points. I have voiced that agreement several times over the months.
I have been right there in your corner a number of times. Have the last word here if you must. Hopefully it will include something as kind and gracious as what I have just extended to you.

[luckyleftyme2]

16. like I said

your point about the poll-and that was my point is moot- ALSO GOOGLE CASINO NEW BRUNSWICK
you will find that no location as of now has been chosen.
did you hear that on t.v. before the election? also the negatives for the canadian casino is
almost word for word as our dogma.
like I've said before,grammar is not of any interest to me. you can't ride on it,you can't take off on it and you can't build with it.
but the next time you travel over 50 miles in any direction you can bet I worked on it.
the next time you see that military or commercial plane in the air that just took off or is landing in new england you can count on I WORKED on the airport.
the next time you go to the maine mall I want you to know I was one of enablers,I done the payne road exit and overpass.
so while you try to use your superior knowledge of the written word,know that people like me
make it reality.

[RBInMaine]

17. Your work is appreciated, and so are you political views.

Of course your work is much appreciated, and so are your political views and positions as I agree with most of them. Trust me that I have gotten my hands dirty a few thousand times over the years. I was not trying to be "superior." No, maybe you can't drive a car on the properly-written word, but if the pen is going to be mightier than the sword (and it can be), it must be wielded with some skill lest it becomes reduced to a blunt, ineffective instrument that produces little more than written static.

[luckyleftyme2]

18. THATS HOW BUSH GOT IN POWER

WITH A PEN THAT WAS SKEWED TO THE RIGHT;ANY ONE WITH HALF A BRAIN COULD SEE HE'S A BORN LOSER.
AFTER HE CAME OUT OF HIDING FOLLOWING THE 911 EVENT AND THE BIG BOYS REALIZED THAT NEW YORK CITY COULDN'T BE IGNORED. THEY GOT THEIR PR BOYS TOGETHER(IT TOOK 3 DAYS) TO STAGE A GRAND APPEARANCE WITH GIULIANI. THINK ABOUT THE GREAT AIRCRAFT CARRIER APPEARANCE.
NOW LOOK AT HOW MUCH PAIN AND BANKRUPTCY THIS FOOL HAS CAUSED. HOW MUCH CORRUPTION OF OUR GOVERNMENT,THE INFRINGEMENT OF OUR RIGHTS THIS ADMINISTRATION HAS PRODUCED.
THINK OF HOW MANY AMERICANS AND IRAQIS HAVE BEEN MAIMED OR KILLED BECAUSE OF THAT FALSE PEN.
YES I BELIEVE IN THE PENNED WORD,BUT NOT THE AUTHOR!
NOR THE GRAMMAR:
IF SYOU BLCAN SVREAD THIS BYU CKNOW AWHAT SI'M HSAYING GAIS BNTRUE

[luckyleftyme2]

19. THANK YOU FOR YOUR GRAMMAR

AS ALWAYS IMPECCABLE:AND SO ARE YOU POLITICAL VIEWS: THOSE OF US WHO LIVE IN GLASS HOUSES SHOULD REALIZE THE TABLES ARE SO EASY TO TURN!
HA HA HAVE A GREAT DAY-AND STICK TO THE MESSAGE ,DON'T ATTACK THE MESSENGER! ESP WHEN HE'S A STANDING MEMBER OF THE MENSA CLUB.
BY THE WAY I'M ALSO LEFT HANDED WHICH GIVES ME A 7 POINT EDGE FROM BIRTH!
THE PROBLEM WITH PERFECT GRAMMAR IS MY MIND WORKS TO FAST,MY FINGERS TO SLOW SO I LOSE THE POINT OF MY INTENT. SO PEOPLE THAT ONLY WORRY ABOUT GRAMMAR PROBABLY MISS THE POINT ANYWAY.
MY ENGLISH TEACHER GOD LUV HER WAS A DISCIPLINARIAN, ALWAYS PREACHING GRAMMAR,READING TO EXPAND THE MIND AND THE GOOD BOOK SHE WAS FIRED FOR STEALING FROM THE CAPS AND GOWNS AT GRADUATIONS. (AND STEALING FROM STUDENTS LOCKERS THEY FOUND THIS OUT WHEN THEY CLEANED OUT HER LOCKERS AND DESK) SHE'D BEEN DOING IT FOR YEARS.
THAT DIDN'T MAKE HER A BAD ENGLISH TEACHER BUT CERTAINLY KILLED MY INTEREST IN BELIEVING ALL THAT IS WRITTEN! I'VE QUESTIONED EVERY THING I FIND OF INTEREST EVER SINCE,TO BAD OTHERS WOULDN'T BE MORE DILIGENT,ESP. IF IT COMES FROM THE RIGHT.

[Angsty]

20. Mensa

I've always been curious about Mensa. What do you/they do? Are there many members in Maine? How long have you been a member?