Do the Dems Really Want to Win Maine?

[DemocracyInaction]

Yup, I'm the one who posted about the lack of signs..........I just got back from another tour around southern Maine and my God it's really bad. (2 Mitchell signs and not a lot for other offices)! Anyway, that's only the tip of things because I've been having a sick feeling for about 6 months now. Point blank: I'm wondering if the high ups in the Dem Party here in Maine in conjunction with the national party have decided to let Maine go Repuke this election and not bother fighting! Mitchell has not shown up for things or really pressed the flesh like LePage is doing. He and the other guys went to the Fryburg Fair, participated in parade there, etc. She said she has a personal commitment (not now, Libby) and would go the next day...opportunity lost. And on and on it goes.....I have a feeling there is a nice, fat government position for her waiting in D.C. after she is done "place holding" for the Democrats. I'm seeing some of this in other races and the frustration is just mounting. I feel sold out and I can't shake the feeling. I will vote straight Dem as usual but I might end up poking a hole in the damn ballot because I'm so pissed.

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. She live was on The PM Jab..

...the big afternoon drive-time sports call-in show this week.

Not your typical venue for a woman, Democratic, candidate....

[Crystal Clarity]

2. I don't doubt your sincerity

and we've alot of things to be cynical about regarding all things political at this juncture in our nation's history.

However, imho I think you are being unduly unfair to Libby. I agree that perhaps she and those working on her campaign may have made a few mistakes here and there. However, I know Libby, and her kindness and strength of character is 'the real deal'... beyond reproach. This is one thing I'm absolutely very certain of. She truly cares about this state and the people living in it.

I must admit that I'm bewildered myself as to the political events unfolding around us; not only at the state level but nationwide. However, I personally don't see anything underhanded going on in regard to the Dem. party in general. This is not to say that there are no bad apples, but I don't view it as something pervasive. Obviously, changes are desperately needed, especially on the national level where public funding of campaigns do not exist as they do here, but overall, I take the view that most politicians mean well. I realize that it's not a popular one here on DU, but so be it, that's how I see it.

As a long time political observer (and forever student/inquisitor) of all things historical, what appears to be going on now (again imho) is more the result of the instability and turbulence of the crisis level we've reached in this cycle of our collective history as Americans. Crisis' on the level we are seeing now do not happen very often, but when they do, most things we know and understand to be true can be thrown out the window. Outcomes are always uncertain and many things don't appear to make sense to those of us who are both blessed and cursed to be living in 'interesting times'.

Whew...sorry for being so long winded. :blush: But to get back to your OP, I really hope you will understand that I have no intention of being an obnoxious contrarian such as we often see in GD. I love our little Maine forum and hope that even if we disagree on some things, we'll always respect each other's thoughts and opinions. I certainly do yours. We are a unique group of folks in a way that'd be hard to explain to most people from other states who would never be able to 'get us' no matter how hard we try...lol!

BTW it's entirely possible that the national level Dems have given up on Maine as you opine, although if that's the case, I think it may be for more practical, rather then sinister reasons. Let's face it, this is shaping up to be a tough year for Dems/Liberals for a multitude of reasons. The party, on the national level, may be more invested in other state races for logistical and monetary reasons... As for the signs? As another Maine DUer pointed out, those signs don't vote, we do.

[DemocracyInaction]

3. Crystal--here's the frustration

I see a decent job being done on advertising for Pingree (and for Machaud, too). I do wonder where Pingree's opponent is getting money (but I don't know if repubs would waste it on him because he won't off her). BUT, I don't really see some off-the-charts number of ads by LePage that might indicate out of state (or even local) money. He has perhaps even less ads than Libby. Obviously, Libby seems to be sinking. Yet, I don't see her money getting out there to really expose LePage; it's just nice, soft stuff. And you can't tell me that those thousands of LePage signs are not making a difference and that she is so broke that her campaign can't cough up maybe 12 signs in the state?! As we can see nationally, the people are at the Wresting Federation level and the LOVE hit, kick and bite. She has to start biting....only it could be too late with advance voting. If his past is what has been written here, then if nothing else we need a "group" with no direct ties to her to bring it up NOW in an ad. That could blow his foot off with any vet and any "family values" person. (In fact the ad about him and his name on his house deed doesn't make any sense to anyone watching because they don't know about his little attempt to rip off tuition in Florida---they need to explain why he gets so wild about being asked about it). Needless to say, I wished Cutler would shut up and blow away because he definitely is not going to win. Hopefully once LePage becomes governor (and I suspect he has about a 95% chance of it)that there will have been so many people who did NOT vote for the man that he will be unable to do squat. He's dangerous.

[rbilancia]

4. LePUKE does not have a 95% chance of becoming governor. This is FAR from over. Read On:

First, as a clean elections candidate Libby reserved much more money for tv than signs. I think you can still get bumper stickers. Many people have made signs. A visibility campaign has some effect, but quite minimal. Dems are working HARD in the offices phonebanking, and our candidates and their helpers are out on the streets banging on doors which is much more effective than signage. If you want a bumper sticker, call your nearest Dem office. If you want a sign and can't get one, make one either on your computer or with wood and green and white paint.

The Democratic Gov Association has invested considerable advertising here hitting LePage pretty hard. Libby has even been criticized for her ads hitting LePage. And other groups are hitting LePage too. Plenty of Mainers, even some moderate R's, are hitting LePage with letters to the editor. In these last two weeks, I think you'll see Libby's team hit him even harder.

Our congressional seats are deemed quite safe, so the national Dems have invested elsewhere. They always have to prioritize. However, Maine Dems are doing all we can to help Chellie and Mike. I think they'll win.

Cutler in the wildcard in the Gov race. If it was a two-way race, Libby would be beating LePage quite handily. If Cutler surges and hurts Libby more in the end, that isn't good news. But if people wait to the endgame to see where the polls are and see that LePage is too close possibly get in, then they may vote for Libby in order to stop LePage. If LePage was to win, it will be with 35% of the vote or so, and he'll have a very minimal mandate. And if he tries to govern as the asshole that he is, he'll be unsuccessful and get hammered in 2014. So this is all still VERY MUCH up in the air.

So just contact your closest Dem office and help phonebank, canvass, donate, etc. and let's do our best to win as many elections as we can.

[Crystal Clarity]

6. Good Points

You and I appear to be pretty much on the same page regarding this. I didn't see yours until after I had posted mine (got sidetracked several times while replying) but it's funny how we seem to have come to the same conclusions overall.

It'd be a mistake to rest on our laurels but I'm feeling fairly confident. I'm glad to hear that people are working hard on Libby's behalf. GOTV is definitely a must in this race. Thanks for all you are doing to help. :-)

[Crystal Clarity]

5. I agree with much of what you had to say

Libby's campaign (so far) seems to be going by a playbook that's worked well for her for years. However, the political climate is currently much different then what we're all used to, so I think they should've made some adjustments based on that fact. LePage and his teabagger minions have tapped into some very real anger (misdirected anger, but anger nonetheless) which seems to have found an outlet w/LePage as their leader. He's got a fanatically motivated base and the poll #'rs we're seeing reflect that.

Based on the most recent poll #'rs I could find however, I think it's understandable to be concerned but I don't believe but it's as dire as it appears on the surface. Consider this one, a compilation/average of 3 separate polls dated between 10/4 and 10/12. They focused only on Mitchell, Lepage and Cutler. They have the numbers as 32.3 for LePage, 29.0 for Mitchell and 14.3 for Cutler. Those #'rs still leave a whopping 24.4% who haven't weighed in on the main 3. Granted, some of that 24% are leaning toward the other, lesser known candidates, but even if you account for them, it still leaves LOTS of undecideds. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/me/maine_governor_lepage_vs_mitchell_vs_cutler-1231.html

The undecideds are key here. While LePage certainly will pick up some of that group, I believe that he's for the most part 'peaked'. People who are inclined to his brand of snake oil have pretty much already enthusiastically weighed in. He's not the type of character that average people feel so-so and undecided about. Most people either like him or they don't. I think a majority of that huge undecided group is more about Cutler and Mitchell. To seize a win, all Libby would have to do is pick up half of that undecided bunch and the win is her's. I believe she can do it.

I agree that it might help if some group w/no ties to Libby inform folks about LePage's past, but my reason for this is more about Cutler then LePage... People wavering between Mitchell and Cutler may, if better informed about LePage say to hell w/Cutler- We need someone who can beat LePage even if they may have been previously leaning toward Cutler.

Of course I could be wrong about all of this, but I certainly hope not.

As far as signs and ads go, I still maintain that they are less important than many people think. Furthermore there are still 2 weeks left. Most of the 'October-Surprise(s)' occur within this time period. Libby's people or independent groups who support her may be saving some of them for that. I hope no one on Libby's side go too negative however. That's the kind of thing that turns many people off.

[molly77]

7. Bangor Daily News

is huge in mid and upper state ME. They have endorsed Cutler. The publisher of Bangor daily is republican. I live in upper state ME...no Libby signs. Clinton endorsing her was the kiss of death.

[RBInMaine]

8. BDN has been shilling for Cutler since the primaries. The owner and Cutler are buds. It's crap.