Why Dems Lost The Maine State Government Elections

[RBInMaine]

Hi Maine DUers. Here is what happened. I worked the ground hard and know the inside workings pretty well. I would really appreciate as much of your feedback as possible. Thanks.

1) The Republicans and their friendly independents came out strong. They were highly motivated after having lost the last two elections. Our rank and file were simply less motivated.

2) The Republicans "tag-teamed" us. They ran in a very united fashion urging people to "vote for the Republican team" in order to "reform Augusta." It was an effective strategy that resulted in their people voting for party over the individual therefore blunting the usual "all politics is local" norm.

3) The Republicans targeted key races and poured in lots of cash from both inside and outside the state. This was very visible in Joe Perry's state senate race, for example. Also, in that race and no doubt others, they worked the ground very hard all summer long and through the fall right to election day.

4) The Republicans had message discipline up and down the state: "Augusta is broken. Dems are the status quo. We will reform Augusta and bring jobs to Maine." Very clear, very strong, very consistent, very effective. They defined this election, themed it well, and it worked. (Our statewide messaging was far less coordinated and much more muddled. i.e. Why did we not stage a uniform attack on their radical tea party platform? We simply did not define and theme this election well on a statewide basis. We can't just rely on GOTV. We have to do persuasion. They did this well. We didn't. **Also, the endgame anti-Cutler mailings were BAD and made us look silly and desperate. What a fiasco that was.)

5) This, again, was a mid-term election where the minority party usually makes gains. Add to that a sense of frustration with state government and huge frustration due to the recession. All together and you had a perfect storm for something like this. (However, I will say that perhaps our state party should have been better attuned to these forecasts and done more to prepare for them. It reminds me of the Scott Brown election in MA.)

THE GOOD NEWS:

1) We did score some key wins at all levels of government.

2) We have a lot to learn from this loss, and we need to learn it. That will be a great opportunity so we can re-calibrate.

3) We don't have the numbers yet, but our GOTV efforts may well have turned out at least a typical number of Dems for a mid-term cycle which would mean we had a pretty good turn-out operation in a tough environment. It seems that was the case in Brewer. (It appears that the other side just did this better.)

4) OVERALL, MAINE REMAINS A MODERATE TO PROGRESSIVE STATE. This one election does not mean Maine has suddenly fallen massively in love with the Republicans. Their new legislative majority margins are quite narrow. Eliot Cutler surged to nearly beat LePage in one of the closest governor's elections we've had, holding LePage to just 38% of the vote. That is no statewide mandate for him at all. (If we were a run-off state, Cutler WOULD beat LePage.) The bonds passed, one overwhelmingly. Chellie Pingree destroyed her TeaBagger opponent in southern Maine, and Mike Michaud won handily.

5) Now the R's have to actually GOVERN. It is one thing to win an election and another thing to get some things done. They claim they are going to be great reformers. Well, let's see how well Mainers like their brand of "reform." If they decide to govern as TeaBaggers, they'll get pounded next time around. They may no matter how they decide to govern. And some interesting divisions may emerge in their ranks between the TeaBagger types and the more moderate old school R's. LePage's performance will be most interesting to watch. He and the R's owe payback to the TeaBaggers, the Maine Heritage Policy Center radicals, and their corporate friends. We'll see how they act and what they do. Then we'll see if Mainers like it. It is going to be very, very interesting over the next two years. If they go right-wing or nearly right-wing, Dems, next time, will have a great opportunity to DEFINE THEM.

6) Finally, this is a great opportunity to take a good long hard look at our state party operation. Why should it be based so centrally out of Portland? Do we have the right people in both the elected and paid leadership positions? We need to reflect honestly and make changes as needed if we are going to re-group the way we should and be more effective in 2012.

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. They'll throw a lot of state workers out of work...

...cut taxes -- which will throw a lot of school teachers, bus drivers, et al. out of work -- stand back and look at the mess and say "I didn't do it".

In a year, will we have a nominal unemployment rate 2 points better than the nation at large? I don't think so.

But we'll have so much more Freedom!® And casinos...

Happens every time.

(Freedom!® is a registered trademark of the Republican National Committee. Used by permission. All rights reserved.)

[RBInMaine]

3. When the TeaBaggers' kids teachers and teams are cut, they'll be the first to howl.

[jpak]

7. No Friday Night Lights 4 U

yup

[jpak]

2. Pingree and Michaud won by healthy margins - so this was not a Repuke sea change

LePage and the Teabaggers will overreach big time and there will be much buyers remorse.

I suggest we taunt them with chants of "where are the jobs" at every opportunity...

:evilgrin:

[RBInMaine]

4. The economy will probably recover some in two years, but we'll see. & we'll see how far TeaBag they

go on the social issues. If they go that nutjob route, Mainers won't stand for it. Gonna be an interesting ride.

[jpak]

6. If they don't go nutbag route - the teabaggers will be hatin'

If they do go the nutbag route - everybody else will be hatin'

The majority really does not like LePage and folks are going to scrutinize his every move from now until 2014...

[RBInMaine]

5. Yes, Maine remains a moderate to progressive state. So we'll see what they do.

[DemocracyInaction]

8. A couple comments

I think we are over generalizing. I was surprised at long time Repub (well liked) was voted out. I think Collins and Snow will get nervous if LePage goes too far out since they get elected because they are "moderate" (actually I'd like to kick both their asses out because they have become just puppets like the rest of them lately). And, frankly, I think a lot of Mainers are going to respond if the Repubs get welfare in this state under control. This state (sparsely populated and not exactly the highest wages on the planet) has been a growing welfare mecca for years now. It has to be addressed because it cannot be sustained and certain areas cannot keep bringing their poor to the "city" and dropping them off.

[RBInMaine]

9. Welfare is one issue, but there are so many others. If LePage goes TeaBag in general, he is doomed.

[jpak]

10. I live in rural Maine and rarely go to Portland or Bangor or even Lewiston or Brunswick

or other "welfare meccas".

I do not see out-of-state vagrants fresh off the bus lining up at the town office for GA.

What I do see are shuttered paper and textile mills, wood working factories and shoe shops and lots of empty store fronts on Main Street.

It my seem to some that "everyone is on welfare" but in reality, there are no jobs to be had in rural Maine and many of those that remain in Maine eek out a living th best they can - and yes, many of them do use food stamps, Section 8 and GA to get by.

Throwing these people out in the street duing the worst economy in 70 years will not solve the underlying problem.

If LePage and the GOP cause massive teacher and state employee layoffs, and cut off "welfare" to thousands of Maine families who cannot find work because there is no work to be had....

There will be unrest.

yup

[eShirl]

11. "welfare mecca"

nice.

[Crystal Clarity]

12. "Now they actually have to Govern"

Good point. They may find that being proactive and actually accomplishing something is going to be much harder then simply saying no to everything. Hitting that red button may be a hard habit to break, especially if there is a split in their caucus between the teabaggers and moderates.

Also if the R's believe that they can magically attract private sector jobs to Maine w/tax cuts and other goodies while still cutting income taxes, they are being naive at best. Auditing state government, laying off state employees and slashing social programs will STILL not be enough to pay for it. There simply is not enough discretionary money to afford their so-called 'investment' no matter how many programs they cut or do away with.

Furthermore cutting and slashing school funding and other programs are just as difficult to do politically as raising taxes is on our side. Let's take some of the social programs as an example...the R's favorite bugaboo. We hear alot about welfare from them but the welfare that most people think of (the so-called welfare queens) are a very small slice of the budget pie and are already time limited.

No, the majority of Maine welfare spending has more to do with the huge number of elderly people on assistance, and unlike the 'welfare queens', senior citizens actually VOTE. I don't want to go too much off topic, but this might be a good place to point out a demographical issue that puts Maine at a much larger disadvantage then other states... For over a decade, Maine has not once dropped from the top 3 in it's percentage of senior citizens and at times has actually ranked #1. Unlike the other 2 contenders (Florida and Arizona) this demographic is, generally speaking, lower income or just plain poor. These are the people who cannot afford to retire in a warmer climate, bringing their wealth and assets w/them. They need the help they are getting. If the R's in Augusta want to frig around w/senior citizens, they do so at their own political peril.

There are many reasons for this senior citizen demographic oddity but the major one (at least from a rural perspective) is the lack of good paying jobs. Jobs that require a college education. My daughter and her friends are perfect examples of this. Out of her 10 closest friends from HS only 1 lives in Maine (Portland). They are all college educated (or beyond) and in their mid 20's. This is a demographic that healthy economies need to have around all through their working years in order to sustain itself. But if the jobs are not here, then neither will they be, no matter how much they miss their homestate. This is the demographic MIA from rural Maine and is not a new trend. And considering the fact that most of rural Maine is almost nothing but one huge crop of timber, I don't see this issue ending anytime soon, no matter who is in charge in Augusta.

One other demographic thing ought to be mentioned and again I'll use my daughter's HS class of 2003 as an example. Similar to the senior citizens, the ones who DID stay here are also a demographic group vulnerable to poverty. Most of them work at whatever job(s) they can find, but their longterm outlook is tenuous at best. In boom years, they generally do ok, but in an economic downturn, they too are often in need of some sort of assistance (usually only supplemental)... but assistance nonetheless.

OK, I said I didn't want to get off track, yet look what has happened... and I haven't even touched the issue of urban and suburban poverty which also has it's own form of economic impact on Maine. Not as profound perhaps but there nonetheless.

So; getting back to the point of actually Governing. If the R's truly believe they can address these very real problems in the ways they propose, while at the same time reducing tax revenue they are in for a rude awakening. Angus King already tried a similar thing w/tax breaks for business' w/his 'BETR' program and Baldacci w/his 'Pine Tree Zones'... neither of which appears to have helped anyone but big business. I think that both Libby and Cutler came the closest to addressing some of these fundamental issues w/their emphasis on the emerging opportunities Green Energy presents for this state. Will we go there w/the R's in charge? I doubt it.

Sorry about the length of this but I can't end w/out saying Thank You to RB and everyone who worked hard in this past election. Despite the outcome, you deserve credit for at least trying. Our losses would have no doubt been worse without you. This indeed was a perfect storm for D's but we WILL recover w/some good lessons learned.

[Shorebound]

13. Lack of support

My wife and I canvassed several neighborhoods in our city two weekends before the election, knocking on doors and handing out literature. The people on our list were Dems and Independents. As part of the canvass, we asked people who they were voting for. Only one admitted LePage, but a HUGE number of longtime Dems said they were voting for or leaning toward Cutler rather than Libby. When we asked why, many of them mentioned that they didn't want another professional politician in the Blaine House. The other most common comment was that they felt Libby was too far to the left, and they felt more comfortable with Cutler's more centrist views.

Also, it's worth noting that LePage won on votes from rural Maine. This was very much a Two Maines election.

[RBInMaine]

14. It would have been nearly impossible for any D to win the gov office. But for early voting and the

plurality rule, Cutler would have won. Those should be reformed. Cutler was at least a moderate. Too bad.

[luckyleftyme2]

18. I think your partialy right

I have followed Libby for years; I have only good to say about her.But I am sure that I wasn't the only one who thought GOVERNOR would be a hard job for her to handle. And the first thing they done was target her as in over her head!
Maybe now the behind the scenes boys will wake up to reality. We need a fighter for a leader!The top job in this state is demanding. I honestly felt that Cutler had the best answers of all the candidates! Le Page was to brash,and Mitchell was to timid! But I so wanted her to win. It became obvious to me several weeks before election that she wasn't going to win. My wife and I both decided to shift to cutler! And my friend and his wife both staunch republicans voted for Cutler!
I think we all know the man that could have filled that job was shut out and couldn't run! no doubt his signature campaign was hi-jacked!
I think Le PAGE reaching out to the heritage man will be his downfall in the end! like you say there is a difference in cheap talk and the reality and after math with huge cuts!
What we as democrats need to do is speak up at these local meetings we have! and when that wannabee tells you to be quiet ask him on who's authority is he trying to steer the outcome of the meeting! Because that is really the main reason they seem to be in attendance!
I for one am tired of being told I have no say in my government! and I would say from
the size of the vote and the outcome many others are!

[Crystal Clarity]

16. My thanks to you and your wife for helping!

:yourock:

[RBInMaine]

15. Expect R's and LePage to cut and gut with an axe. It will be interesting to watch. He has a Maine

Heritage Policy Center guy at the helm of his transition team. They are promising deep cuts. Gonna be quite a ride.

[high density]

17. I'm wasting no time blaming everything on the Republicans. NM