MD Governor: New Poll 7/21/05 (Here's a shocker)

[nickshepDEM]

Maryland Governor

Bob Ehrlich (R) 46%
Martin O'Malley (D) 41%
Other 3%

Maryland Governor

Bob Ehrlich (R) 43%
Doug Duncan (D) 44%
Other 4%

MD Governor 2006: Ehrlich Faces Tough Re-election Bid

July 21, 2005--Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich won his current job by narrowly defeating Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002. Early indications are that he will face another tough election battle in 2006, regardless of who the Democrats nominate as the challenger.

A Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 survey finds that Ehrlich leads Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley by five percentage points at this time. Ehrlich attracts 46% of the vote to 41% for O'Malley.

The race is even closer between the Republican incumbent and Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan. Duncan earns 44% of the vote in that match-up to 43% for Ehrlich.

Ehrlich has a solid lead among male voters over either Democrat. However, both Democrats lead Ehrlich among women.

The margin of sampling error for the full survey sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Ehrlich is seen as politically conservative by 50% of voters and moderate by another 30%.

O'Malley is seen as liberal by 45% and moderate by 29%. For Duncan, the numbers are 29% liberal and 31% moderate.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Maryland voters consider themselves politically conservative. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they are moderate and 24% liberal.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Maryland%20Governor.htm

[USAcitizen]

1. The black vote save Ehrlich last election

Steele was his saving grace. Since Steele won't be his running mate this go round, who knows what will happen. One thin he has on his side is O'Malley's popularity is shrinking in Baltimore. Largely because of public education.

[DaveinMD]

2. I don't buy it

it flies in the face of every other poll I've seen on this race.

[aintitfunny]

3. Look at the margin of error

"The margin of sampling error for the full survey sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence."

That is a wide margin of error for these tight numbers. Kind of renders it meaningless.

[DaveinMD]

4. Rasmussen

hasn't been polling in MD long and they were pretty far off in our state last year. Regardless, the GE is going to be very close. Within 52-48 either way.

[mdguss]

5. I believe it:

O'Malley's a good politician who has a heart in the right place. I'd certainly vote for him if he gets the nomination. But, in my view, this is the Baltimore factor.

People hear all the time about murders, drug deals, etc. in Baltimore. (Why do you think Republicans put that in the window of their headquarters?) It reminds them why they live in the suburbs, and they're certainly not going to vote for a Mayor of Baltimore because of it. It's about people's sense of safety and security. And it's always going to hurt a Baltimore-city politician running for statewide office.

Add to that people O'Malley's ticked off in Baltimore and you get the big city mayor running behind the county executive. Is it fair to O'Malley? No, but he knew that was going to happen when he became Mayor.

I think O'Malley is going to have a hard time if he gets the nomination. I think he'll be Governor in time, but 2006 ain't that year. I'm going to vote Duncan in the primary.

[mbee]

6. Unless the thugs can steal this one with the touch screens I think

O'Malley will be the next Governor. I read an article recently that he raised $2,000,000. in one night. If that is true - the money people must be despearate to get rid of the wrecking crew down at the State House.

[USAcitizen]

7. Hope you are right

I like O'Malley. I think he is doing a good job here in Baltimore. We need him for governor.

[Frances]

8. I like O'Malley better than Duncan

but I despise Ehrlich

[Name removed]

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