Early Cardin Support Stirs Backlash

[indigo]

Over the past month, the perception that white leaders of the Democratic Party were conspiring to deliver Cardin the nomination has created a fresh well of support for Mfume, whose fundraising has lagged far behind Cardin's. That was evident in comments from prominent black leaders, including four of Baltimore's six state senators and Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson (D), who all recently endorsed Mfume.

Full Washington Post article here.

[nickshepDEM]

1. Read about this earlier. The fact of the matter is...

Black leadership is backing Cardin because he IS the best general election candidate and he is the most senior MD member of the US House. Its not like Cardin came out of the blue or anything.

The fact that Steele (R) is currently beating Mfume (D) in the polls doesnt exactly help either. Especially in a state that leans a good 13% to the left.

[indigo]

2. Perception is everything

I think establishment Dems are making a serious mistake with this heavy-handed approach.

Unlike you, I live in PG County. To state as fact that Steele is currently beating Mfume when it's actually a statistical dead heat goes over like a lead balloon here. These are the kinds of statements that make people pause and question the undertones of this race.

Relax. We have several good candidates, and I'm looking forward to a competitive primary. The best candidate will win.

Don't fool yourself. "Left" Maryland is MoCo, PG and Baltimore City. PG gave Kerry his largest margin of MD counties. Pissing people off with the perception of pre-loading the primary is stupid politics, IMO.

[nickshepDEM]

3. Dead heat or not.

Mfume has damn good name ID and is still in a dead-heat/slightly-trailing a Republican in a state that leans a good 13% to the left. Not very good, IMO.

I also agree that pre-loading the primary is not a good idea, but like I said. Its not as if Cardin came out of nowhere. He is one of the most senior members of the U.S. House. His resume cannot be matched by any Democrat or Republican currently running for U.S. Senate. The people who are strongly backing him early on have good reason.

[indigo]

4. Leans 13% to the left?

I'm going to assume that you are using the 2004 Presidential election, with Kerry's 56:43 win in MD -- otherwise, I'm not sure how you are quantifying your remark.

Here are the 2004 vote breakdowns by county in MD.

Only 6 of our 24 counties went for Kerry. Of the 6, only three beat your spread: Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince Georges.

Kerry's actual lead in the popular vote: 309,790

Kerry's popular vote advantage (decreasing order):

Prince Georges: 205,000
Baltimore City: 138,792
Montgomery: 137,602

There's your "left-leaning" by 13 pts. Vote-rich counties that pumped enough votes in to neutralize Anne Arundel, Harford, etc and make your spread.

Now, look at the exit polls:

White vote: Bush 55 Kerry 44
African-American: Bush 11 Kerry 89

Finally -- total votes cast in MD: 2,359,196
African-American vote (24% of total): 566,207 w/ 89% for Kerry -> 503,924

According to 2003 Census results:

68 percent
Estimated proportion of Orleans Parish, La., residents who were black as of July 1, 2002. Among counties with a minimum total population of 100,000, Orleans has the highest percentage of blacks. A pair of jurisdictions in Maryland, Baltimore City and Prince Georges County followed closely, at 66 percent each.

Who do you think makes Maryland "blue" or "left-leaning"? Is it smart politics to take African-Americans for granted?

With respect to the polls: one in three are *undecided* with respect to Cardin vs Mfume, who, in the most recent polling data available, are otherwise in a dead heat. As far as the general is concerned, b/t July and November, Mfume gained 7 pts on Steele, so trending is clearly in his favor. Mfume's gains have been impressive in light of Cardin and Steele's fundraising machines.

A Mfume vs Steele general would be uncomfortably tight, agreed. I understand where people are coming from on this. But Cardin's resume doesn't mean spit in the wind if you're tired of the status quo, and moreover, are literally starved for hearing a Democrat say "I'm a social liberal and proud of it". Myself, I am currently torn between the two candidates and am very much depending on the primary to solidify my vote and support -- not the early polls and certainly not machine-supplied messaging as to Cardin: the Foregone Conclusion. If I'm feeling uncomfortable, then I wonder how some of my African-American neighbors here in PG feel? The WP wouldn't have published this story if this sentiment in the DC suburbs didn't exist.

I believe that if Cardin is better for MD, his campaign, platform and record will convince people, and let's face it, the perceived early 'white flight' to Cardin's corner is a bit embarassing. Let him work for it -- that's why we have primaries.

[nickshepDEM]

5. Yes, the 13% figure is from the 2004 presidential election.

I guess you could argue Maryland leans more than 13% to the left. Mikulski won by a huge margin and Gore did very well here, but the bottom line... and my point is... Mfume has solid name id, yet he is still trailing a Republican in a state that is undeniably very democrat-friendly. Obviously this shows that a large chunk of the electorate is turned off by an Mfume candidacy. Prime example: My dad. Lifelong die-hard Democrat. Very much in the 'populist' mold. He is socially moderate to conservative, but very economically liberal. He has told me on numerous occassions that he will not vote for Mfume. He's just too turned off by Mfume's character problems (out of wedlock children, ethical issues at the NAACP, and his race baiting). I happened to believe Mfume will have this impact on a lot of moderate blue collar dem's like my father.

Could Mfume win? Of course, but IMO, Cardin is the much, much safer bet. And its not like Cardin is week old leftovers. He is a solid liberal Democrat.
---

I never once said we should take the black vote for granted so I have no idea where you going with this one?
---

When I vote in a primary my litmus test goes like this...

1) Who is the best general election candidate?
2) Who is the best man/woman for the job?
3) Who will best represent my views?

For me, Cardin trumps Mfume on all three. Now, your entitled to your own opinion, but that is where I stand.

[indigo]

7. Questions for you

I happened to believe Mfume will have this impact on a lot of moderate blue collar dem's like my father.

I agree that this is a concern. But -- I have a question. Do not take this personally, but rather, I'm asking for your take on your father's outlook. If he's economically liberal and a life-long Democrat, what would he do in a Mfume vs Steele race? Vote Steele or sit it out?


Could Mfume win? Of course, but IMO, Cardin is the much, much safer bet.

If you read my post, you'll see we agree on this.

I never once said we should take the black vote for granted so I have no idea where you going with this one?

You discounted the WaPo article with "facts" that I don't necessarily agree with.

I have another question for you. You said: Mfume has solid name id. What I am wondering is why such a solid chunk (1/3 respondents) are undecided in Cardin vs. Mfume? (I do not know the figure for undecideds in the general polling).

[nickshepDEM]

9. I asked my dad and...

he said, under no circumstance would he vote for Steele. He is a huge O'Malley fan, so the odds of him staying home on general election day are slim to none.

Undecideds? I dont know. Maybe they do not know enough about Cardin to make the choice between he and Mfume. If I recall correctly Rasmussen had Cardin's name ID below 50%, where Steele and Mfume were well over 50%.

[AuntiBush]

11. I asked...

my older relative who works at JHH. Everyone wants O'Malley, BIG-TIME. Same for areas in Dundalk, Highlandtown, Essex and many places in-between.

Evenin Harford County are majorly anti-Ehrlich, as well. At least that's what I'm hearing from a varient of folks.

[nickshepDEM]

12. Im in Dundalk and I have seen a mixed bag...

Some support O'Malley and others support Ehrlich (even some dem's). This is actually a good sign considering when Ehrlich was first elected, Dundalk was often refered to as his second home. He's not nearly as popular here as he once was...

[Frances]

6. Thanks for all of this info, Indigo

I volunteered in the 2000 and 2002 campaigns and yet did not know these facts.

Now I can see why Erhlich selected Steele as his running mate in 2000. And I can see why the Repubs are pushing Steele for the Senate.

I hope that whoever wins the Dem primary will not be too wounded to defeat Steele.

[indigo]

8. You're very welcome

Now I can see why Erhlich selected Steele as his running mate in 2000. And I can see why the Repubs are pushing Steele for the Senate.

Many ppl believe that KKT's greatest mistep was her choice for Lt. Gov. a white ex-GOP'er. Yet another Democratic pivot to the "moderates" that gave us ... Ehrlich.

I hope that whoever wins the Dem primary will not be too wounded to defeat Steele.

Agree. That's why the appearance of a fair primary is so important.

[philmo]

10. Any support for Lichtman?

Does anyone know if Cardin has lost any support to Allan Lichtman? Or I guess any of the other Democratic candidates?

[nickshepDEM]

13. Who??@?@

j/k. Lichthman seems like a good guy, but in reality, he doesnt stand a chance. He could end up being the spoiler candidate though.

[indigo]

14. other candidates

Lichtman - I've seen him posting on blogs, but he never follows up on his own posts. I'm interested in hearing more about his work for the US Commission on Civil Rights. Otherwise, his profile has been low, despite living only 20 min away from me. Not much local chatter.

Kevin Zeese - not running as a democrat but a 'fusion' candidate of various 3rd-party groups. He spoke at the Sheehan event at UMCP in October. Had quite a following present, and they were signing up people in the audience for house parties/meetups. Haven't heard anything since.

Van Susteren - have heard nothing at all.

I'd doubt at this point that any combination of these candidates has taken significant share from the frontrunners, but this may change as the race heats up.