What are the odds that Duncan's dropping out will help Ehrlich gain votes?

[Mutley]

Listening to the talk about Duncan this afternoon, I noticed a lot of people saying that they'd vote for Ehrlich before O'Malley. That certainly does Not apply to me, of course, but do you all think this could cause problems for O'Malley?

Here's there story in case you haven't already heard:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/bal-duncan0622,0,3473550.story?coll=bal-mdpolitics-headlines

[Stinky The Clown]

1. I just read that again ... where does it say

that Ehrlich could benefit from this?

[Mutley]

2. It's not in the article.

I actually meant it when I said, "Listening to the talk..." as in on the radio, around town, etc.

[nickshepDEM]

3. New Zogby Poll out today shows O'Malley leading Ehrlich 52-41

[Mutley]

5. Well, yeah. But this happened barely 6 hours ago.

Give it time to sink in.

[smtpgirl]

20. O'Malley all the way

I'm a Montgomery County Dem

[nickshepDEM]

4. I think O'Malley and Ehrlich are similar to Bush and Kerry

both are polarizing and will lock up their base very early, which greatly benefits O'Malley when you consider that Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 in Maryland.

However, Ehrlich is still popular among Indy's who see him as a 'CHECK' on the state legislature.

If Ehrlich does as well with Indy's in 2006 as he did in 2002, he wins by a slim margin. We'll just have to wait and see...

[Mutley]

6. I think the Indy's could be a problem.

Many of them, 'specially those who live in Baltimore City, have issues with the school system, the BPD, etc. Hell, many of the Dems in Baltimore have problems with O'Malley because of that.

[USAcitizen]

18. Many in Baltimore won't vote for O 'Malley because.....

They think he is a crook. They believe that he had something to do with Duncan stepping down. They believe that he does not have the best interests of the people at heart and that he is using the governorship as a stepping stone to the presidency. Face it, O Malley could not win if Duncan was still running.

[DaveinMD]

7. Ehrlich beat KKT 52-48

Look inside those numbers and you see that Independents weren't the difference. KKT lost too many Democrats. I don't believe that will happen this time.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. I agree with your analysis

I know of *many* Dems who eaither stayed away of went for Ehrlich. I'm hearing this same people pissing and moaning about Ehrlich now, so it won't be the same this time.

Plus .... let's face it .... KKT ran one *shitty* campaign. And that from a a guy who really likes her.

[smtpgirl]

23. I liked Townsend, too bad I lived in VA at the time

[bluethruandthru]

9. Too bad about Duncan

I really liked him. I'm not as familiar with O'Malley since I live in Montgomery County....but I wouldn't ever vote Republican. I'd love to hear what my esteemed DU friends think of O'Malley.

[Mutley]

10. Oh I wouldn't vote for Ehrlich.

I had not yet decided between O'Malley and Duncan, but my decision has been made now. I just worry that people who are leary of O'Malley might go for Ehrlich.

[smtpgirl]

22. I vote for non fake hair, so Erlich it out

[USAcitizen]

19. I am cautious

I am not sure if some of what I have heard about him is true or not. But if it is........then he is a shady character

[smtpgirl]

21. Duncan did some funky shit too

with the zoning in Bethesda & Silver Spring for low income housing

[CBHagman]

11. This can actually unify the Democrats.

First, there's no bruising, divisive primary fight. Second, as The Washington Post article points out, O'Malley can secure the base and also seek cross-over voters.

Don't get me wrong. I am heartsick for Doug Duncan. But I would hesitate to view this as a liability to O'Malley.

I'd better get my rear end down to O'Malley headquarters and start volunteering!

[Mutley]

13. I hope you're right.

;)

[madinmaryland]

12. I don't think it will gain ehrlich any votes.

I think it will in the long run, help bring the dems together, and will help O'Malley. O'Malley is now free to concentrate on erhlich and not have to worry about sniping within the dem party.

[Olney Blue]

16. Agree. We can crystallize around O'Malley and crush Ehrlich.

[aintitfunny]

14. No, for all the reasons already stated (n/t)

[Polecat]

15. Clarify

Couldn't you have said the same thing after the Primary election if Duncan had lost?

[TrueFunkSoldier]

17. I don't quite understand your logic...

Duncan was clearly the progressive in this race. If anything, the lefty Independents like myself who supported him will logically move over to O'Malley. Why would a former Duncan supporter go for Ehrlich? Again, the rationale escapes me...